Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens

This game feels like a cage match.

We’ve got a 43-point projected total and two offenses running plays at a below-average rate. And I’m not sure I agree with the spread.

I mean, don’t get me wrong, I get the hype with Lamar Jackson at home. Baltimore has exceeded their current team total in five of their eight games and cooked up thirty burgers for their opponents over the last two weeks. 

However, after Seattle was careening toward 2022’s defensive issues by allowing 29.3 PPG, they’ve tightened things up. The Seahawks have ceded just 12.5 PPG over their last four. Plus, Pete Carroll went out and got another pass rusher. But the offense is our primary concern, and after a few shaky performances, it might be Carroll’s, too.

Last week was emblematic of Geno Smith’s play in 2023. The journeyman QB had two picks before leading a flawless, game-winning drive. And his season-long stats reflect the seemingly chaotic nature of the Seahawk’s passing game.

Smith sits at sixth in passing success rate. Simply put, he’s efficient on a down-to-down basis. His 35.1% first down per attempt rate is right behind Patrick Mahomes’ (35.2%). But Geno sits at 12th in EPA per dropback. So, his aggressiveness can be a gift and a curse. Regardless, his pass-catchers are still worth considering in this tough matchup.

Dec 4, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) runs the ball against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Derion Kendrick (6) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

After missing Week 7 with a rib injury, DK Metcalf came back to a whopping 38.9% target share against the Browns. Coupled with a 55.3% air yard share, Metcalf’s workload should keep him on your starting roster. And Tyler Lockett’s team lead in red-zone and third/fourth-down targets make him an every-week WR2. But we’ve got a couple of other guys to consider.

After a disappointing start to the season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role has grown. Since their Week 5 bye, his target share has climbed to 16.5%, with an average of 6.8 air yards per target. And Jake Bobo just continues to make plays. However, Bobo’s 26.3% route rate with Metcalf back should keep him off our radar for Week 9.

For Baltimore, I’ve repeatedly watched this clip of Lamar’s touchdown to Mark Andrews and laugh every time.

It’s just your run-of-the-mill, around-a-defender’s-head, while-standing-on-one-leg touchdown pass. No big deal. But while Baltimore averaged its fewest yards per drive since Week 4, throws like these (and just about every other one) are why this offense continues to be dangerous for any defense. But it’d be nice if there were more fantasy options.

Andrews and Zay Flowers continue to be our strongest assets connected to Jackson. On the season, the rookie has more receptions (32) than the next two WRs combined (Nelson Agholor – 17, Odell Beckham – 14). And I realize Beckham and Rashod Bateman were in and out of the lineup. But it hasn’t been much better in recent weeks.

Over their last four games, Flowers and Andrews both have route rates above 90.0%. Given the Ravens have used three WR sets on 71.9% of Lamar’s dropbacks, you’d assume at least one of the ancillary receivers would have a similar rate. Well…

• Agholor 51.7%
• Beckham 59.2%
• Bateman 45.6%

Beckham has the highest target share and TPRR of the ancillary options but the lowest YPRR. Agholor runs the layup routes from the slot and then disappears from Jackson’s vision when in the red zone. And Bateman, let’s just rejoice he’s healthy and on the field.

WR1s like Amari Cooper (11-89-0) and Ja’Marr Chase (13-80-0) have been able to return WR2 value against the Seahawks. Meanwhile, their teammates struggled for production. Beckham’s peripherals are encouraging, but the only plays from Baltimore’s passing game are Jackson’s WR1 and TE.