In his heart of hearts, Pete Carroll probably wouldn’t have this any other way.

Seattle has their backs up against the wall. Everyone’s counted them out. And he gets one shot to prove he can lead a team to the playoffs. However, after reviewing the Week 18 motivation for both teams in this matchup, he’ll need a bit of help to get there.

• Seattle: The Seahawks pinned themselves into a must-win situation. Not only do they need to beat the Cardinals, but they also need the Packers to lose to Chicago. With both games going on simultaneously, Seattle should play the entire game as they normally would.
• Arizona: already eliminated but can play spoiler for a division rival

And it’s not like the Cardinals are a pushover squad. HC Jonathan Gannon just took down his old team, which has Super Bowl aspirations and provided legitimate excitement for Arizona’s future. But, with Geno Smith in command of the Seahawks’ offense, they’ve still got a chance.

Smith’s dropback over expectation (DBOE) rate has ramped up over the last two weeks, and we haven’t seen a drop in play from the veteran QB. Well, a narrow win against the Titans and a loss at home against the Steelers says otherwise, but he has averaged the eighth-highest EPA per play (0.18) since returning from the groin injury that sidelined him in Weeks 14 and 15. He was similarly efficient against the Cardinals earlier in the season (57.7% passing success rate), and Arizona’s defense can be a cure-all.

We already know who we can count on in the passing game for fantasy production. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett continue to headline the aerial attack, with both WRs earning over 20.0% of Smith’s attempts. Plus, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba becoming Geno’s favorite target in obvious passing situations, the trio should be our only rostered Seahawks from a passing perspective. But, of course, the RBs have to factor into our starting lineup decisions.

Kenneth Walker’s return brought him back into the RB1 role. However, Zach Charbonnet has mixed in on both short-yardage and two-minute operations. Walker’s homerun ability should keep him in the RB2 conversation for Week 18. However, if you’re in a PPR league, the rookie’s seven targets over the last two games are worthy of flex consideration.

On the Cardinals’ side, at least we don’t have to wonder where Kyler Murray will be playing in 2024. However, without a true WR1 (Marquise Brown went on IR before Week 17), it’s no surprise Arizona had to scale its DBOE rate back.

Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch both served as the downfield options for Murray. Both WRs took over 30.0% of the team’s air yards, with Wilson (six targets) having one fewer than Dortch. With freshman TE Trey McBride tying for the team lead in looks from Murray, there’s a solid young core in Arizona. But the Seahawks’ defense has a particular weakness that brings another option into play.

James Conner returned to the lineup in Week 10. He has 113 rushing attempts since then. No other RB on the team has more than 20. Conner has also averaged 2.7 targets per game over the same span. Emari Demarcado is the only other rusher with more than 10.

Conner’s role as the lead rusher, along with opportunities in the passing game, put him into the low-end RB1/high-end RB2 tier. With last week being the first week Conner has had to share touches from inside the five-yard line, Conner should be in starting lineups for Week 18.