Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are coming off a brutal loss on Thursday Night Football. Not only did they lose to the Ravens and drop to 5-5 on the year, but more importantly, they also lost star QB Joe Burrow to a season-ending injury. Cincinnati is technically still alive for a playoff spot, but without Burrow, it’s hard to imagine them making a run.

Jake Browning, an undrafted free agent out of the University of Washington back in 2019, will take over as the team’s starter. He was a prolific passer in college with nearly 13,000 passing yards and 94 TDs in four years as a starter, and Browning led the team to two conference championships.

Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to put him on the NFL radar. Browning is considered a game manager who lacks top-end athleticism and arm talent, so he'll need to rely on the players around him to make plays.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) finds a gap on a reception in the first quarter of the NFL Week 11 game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Thursday, Nov. 16, 2023. Photo Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The silver lining is that Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are about as good of a supporting cast as any QB could hope for, but even so, Browning still projects to be a major downgrade from Burrow for Cincinnati. Browning managed to complete eight of 14 passes for 68 yards and a TD in relief of Burrow on Thursday, but much of this production came in garbage time with the game out of reach.

While the Bengals have had some dreadful luck this season, the Steelers have been fortunate. They have a 6-4 record even with a negative point differential and having been outgained in yardage in all 10 games. That’s not just rare; it’s nearly impossible. Pittsburgh is the first team in at least 90 years to post a winning record in their first eight games despite having been outgained in all of them.

The Steelers' success has largely stemmed from the performance of their defense. While Pittsburgh currently ranks just 27th in yards allowed per game, their defense has excelled in two crucial areas: generating turnovers and limiting TDs. Only 40% of their opponents’ red-zone trips have resulted in TDs, which ranks fourth-best in the league. The Steelers' 1.9 takeaways per game also ranks second in the NFL behind only the Jaguars (2.0).

Add it all up, and Pittsburgh's defense currently ranks a respectable seventh in points allowed per game and ninth in EPA allowed per play. I tend to look at teams with wide disparities between points and yards as just “lucky,” but this Steelers unit is actually pretty good.

Nov 19, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) throws a pass during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The big issue is that their offense has been horrendous. Kenny Pickett has been among the worst QBs in the league, as only Zach Wilson has been worse in EPA + CPOE composite among qualifying QBs thus far in 2023. Pickett does rank slightly better in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, but he's still just 27th among qualifying QBs, which is nothing to get excited about.

The Steelers are coming off a loss against a backup QB last week in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but the Bengals don’t have the same elite defense as the Browns. Can they bounce back with a win against another backup QB in Week 12?

Personally, I’m skeptical. The Steelers are listed as road favorites, which has not been a favorable spot for Mike Tomlin-led teams in the past. He’s 30-39-1 as a road favorite during the regular season since 2005. Though the spread probably won’t come into play in this matchup, it’s still something to keep in mind.

Essentially, this spread says that the Steelers are roughly two or three points better than the Bengals on a neutral field. Even with Cincinnati fielding a backup QB, I don’t feel comfortable saying that. Browning probably isn’t good, but Pickett may not be much better.

Perhaps the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada will give a lift to Pittsburgh's offense this week, but it remains to be seen whether he or Pickett shouldered more of the blame for the offense's struggles through 11 weeks.

In this case, I’d rather go with the devil I don’t know instead of the one that I do in Browning leading this Bengals team at home.