Steelers at Colts (-2.5) – 39.0 total

The Steelers and Colts play on Monday in a game between two four-win teams who both desperately need a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. This Monday Night Football matchup will mark Jeff Saturday’s third game as head coach for Indianapolis. The Colts have played much more inspired football under Saturday but have still managed just 41 points scored (20.5 points per game) over the last two weeks. 

Matt Ryan is getting another start and he may find some success this week against a Steelers defense that is ranked third-last in yards per pass attempt this year. The Steelers remain an elite run-stopping unit but they’ve failed miserably in the secondary, allowing a monstrous 15.1 yards per reception to opposing WRs. If the Colts can keep Ryan upright, expect one or both of Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell to have a big game. Campbell has only seen one less target than Pittman over the last three weeks and Ryan sports a 96.5 passer rating (highest on the team) when targeting him this year. 

The Steelers enter this game with major offensive issues of their own. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett has thrown for just 3 TDs against 8 INTs in seven appearances and has yet to manage a multi-TD game as starter. Pittsburgh did land 30 points against the Bengals, but many of those points came when already down big to Cincinnati. 

Pittsburgh has gotten better production out of Najee Harris of late, who has averaged 4.72 YPC over his last two games. There’s been a clear focus by Pittsburgh recently to get Harris the ball more and the fact he was able to hit the 20-carry mark last week against the Bengals (his second week in a row accomplishing that feat) suggests we’ll be seeing lots more of him this week against Indianapolis. 

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the Colts’ rush defense isn’t likely to yield much in the way of yards. They held one of the best rushing offenses in Philadelphia to under 4.5 yards per carry last week and rank second in the league at 3.8 YPC this season. That means the game may come down to Pickett, who will need to connect with fellow rookie George Pickens for some big plays to pull off the win. Pickens isn’t getting a massive share of the targets, but he ranks 5th in overall deep targets on the season and has an elite 15.1 aDOT coming into this game. 

The Colts have looked competent of late and that’s bad news for the Steelers, who likely don’t deserve to be less than 3.0 point underdogs on the road. Matt Ryan is still a savvy QB when given time and his receivers will win out a ton against this defense. Indianapolis is the stronger side and should take care of business in primetime.