Steelers at Panthers (-3.0) – 37.5 total

I didn’t expect to see the Panthers playing meaningful football in December. They fired their head coach and traded away Christian McCaffrey. But a win on Sunday and a Buccaneers’ loss puts them at a coinflip to make the postseason. It’s been a wild ride for Carolina, but it hasn’t been any easier for Pittsburgh this season.

Kenny Pickett will likely miss the game after the team placed him in concussion protocol following Week 14. Mitch Trubisky took over, and the results were about as expected. A 42 yard shot to George Pickens ended with a Najee Harris touchdown on Trubisky’s first drive, and things unraveled afterward.

He threw an interception on the next three drives. What’s worse is they weren’t due to the Ravens getting pressure. Trubisky was immaculate under fire, with a 117.2 passer rating, but his clean-pocket processing (still) needs work which should keep him away from our fantasy rosters.

But we can still look to a couple of his pass-catchers. Pat Freiermuth had a blistering 30.0% TPRR and half of the team’s red-zone targets. Diontae Johnson led the team in targets (8), and Pickens took over on downfield looks. Trubisky’s volatility makes him an uncertain fantasy option. However, the team’s pass rate over expected did increase with him under center, making his pass-catching options viable in the first week of the playoffs.

Najee Harris has a tough outing against the Panthers’ defensive front. Carolina hasn’t allowed a rushing score since Joe Mixon’s four-TD outburst in Week 9. Since then, Latavius Murray has been the only running back to eclipse 50 yards on the ground. His 2.8 targets per game may keep him afloat in PPR leagues, but a ceiling outcome is tough to see on the road this weekend.

For Carolina, it’s hard to know what to expect out of their passing game. DJ Moore (ankle) is trending in the wrong direction after full practices to start the week. While he got blanked in the box score last week, it’s not like anyone else stepped up in his place.

Laviska Shenault took over as the team’s WR1 with just four targets. Shi Smith got into the end zone, and Sam Darnold looked his way only one more time for the rest of the day. There’s no chance you’d look to either option with a potential fantasy championship on the line. Your best bet is in the backfield.

We watched J.K. Dobbins (attempt to) burst upfield, but the Ravens still piled 186 rushing yards on Pittsburgh. Since the Steelers’ Week 9 bye, they’re 18th in rushing success rate and allowed 12 explosive runs. Meanwhile, D’Onta Foreman is fifth in 10-plus yard runs over the same span. Foreman’s foot injury likely influenced the touch share shifting towards Chuba Hubbard (38.6%). However, the team didn’t even list Foreman on the injury report and he is a potential RB3 in Week 15.