The Steelers are coming off a bye in Week 6, and they’ll travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in Week 7. The Rams were able to secure a comfortable victory over the Cardinals in their last matchup, pushing them to 3-3 for the season.

Not much was expected of the Rams in 2023, but Matthew Stafford has reminded everyone of just how good he is when healthy. He ranks sixth at the position in Pro Football Focus grade, so he’s done a great job of making the most out of a subpar situation.

Cooper Kupp rejoined the Rams’ lineup for their past two contests, and he looks like he never left. He’s racked up 15 catches, 266 yards, and a score against the Eagles and Cardinals, making him the No. 3 receiver in PPR per game scoring. Only Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen have averaged more points per game than Kupp this season.

October 15, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) runs the football against Arizona Cardinals safety Andre Chachere (36) during the first quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

More surprising is how effective the run game has been. Despite trading away Cam Akers earlier this season, the Rams are sixth in EPA/rush and fourth in rushing Success Rate. Kyren Williams is yet another success story for the “late-round running back” crowd, with the fifth-round pick from the 2022 NFL Draft providing massive production. He’s averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, and he’s added in six touchdowns.

Unfortunately, Williams suffered an injury in his last contest, and he is expected to miss some time. Making matters worse, backup RB Ronnie Rivers is also expected to miss Week 7 vs. the Steelers.

That leaves the Rams with an unproven group at the position. Zach Evans will likely operate as the lead back, while Ronnie Hillman and the reaquired Darrell Henderson Jr. could also factor into the equation.

That’s a slight concern, but it’s not like Williams was a known commodity. If he was able to find success behind this offensive line – which ranks 13th in PFF run blocking grade – why can’t someone else?

However, the Rams will have to navigate a tough matchup vs. the Steelers. Their defense hasn’t been quite as dominant this season as they have been in years past, but they’re still quite good. They’re 10th in EPA/play and eighth in EPA/dropback, and they still possess an absolute game-wrecker in T.J. Watt. Watt ranks fourth among edge rushers in PFF grade, and he leads the league with eight sacks despite playing in just five games.

Watt could spell trouble for the Rams’ offense. While their offensive line has done a solid job in the run game, they’ve been dreadful at pass blocking. They’re 31st in PFF pass-blocking grade, besting only the Giants’ beleaguered unit. If they don’t have a plan for Watt, he’s capable of making a few game-changing plays.

The Steelers are currently listed as 3.5-point underdogs, and that’s a spot where head coach Mike Tomlin has historically thrived. He’s an absurd 53-31-4 ATS when getting points since 2005 (including playoffs), so the idea of getting him at +3.5 is pretty appealing.

This will only be the third time over that sample that Tomlin is an underdog following a bye week, and he’s split the previous two games in that sample.

The sharps have been higher on the Rams than the public all season, and the early sharp activity has sided with Los Angeles this week. As of Tuesday evening, they’ve received 79% of the dollars on 50% of the bets (via the Action Network), which is why some 3.5s have popped up around the industry.

It’s always scary to go against the sharps, but I’m happy to grab the +3.5 with Tomlin and the Steelers in this spot.