Steelers at Ravens

There’s nothing better than a late-season NFL rivalry game. The Steelers and Ravens have been one of the best rivalries in football for the past two decades, with both teams experiencing plenty of success. These two teams played to a dead heat in the 2000s and 2010s, with each side winning 22 games, but the Steelers have won four of five contests to start the 2020s.

That’s good news for Pittsburgh, who needs to win their final two games to have any shot of making the playoffs. They’re currently sitting at 7-8, and even if they do get to 9-8, they still have just an 11% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. However, even if the team doesn’t make the playoffs, they would love to avoid their first losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers have been a completely different team this season with T.J. Watt in the lineup. They beat the Bengals in Week 1 in Cincinnati – a win that gets more impressive by the week – but they lost Watt to an injury in that contest. They proceeded to lose six of seven games with Watt sidelined, but they’ve rattled off five wins in seven games since he’s returned.

Their defense has been particularly impressive over the past two weeks, limiting the Panthers and Raiders to just 410 total yards in those contests. The Steelers’ offense racked up 675 yards in those games, so even though they needed a late touchdown to beat the Raiders last week, they have thoroughly outplayed their past two opponents.

The Ravens have already clinched a postseason berth at 10-5, but they would need some help to win the division. The Bengals would have to lose at home to the Bills in Week 17, and then the Ravens would have to beat the Bengals in Cincinnati to close out the year.

That creates an interesting scenario for the Ravens. Since they play on Sunday night, they will know if they can still win the division before taking the field. If Cincinnati loses to the Bills, the Ravens simply need to win out to win the AFC North. If the Bengals win, the Ravens will be locked into a Wild Card spot.

That’s an extremely interesting dynamic given the health of star quarterback Lamar Jackson. He’s missed the past three games with a knee injury, and his status for this week’s matchup is unknown. However, it seems logical that the team would be more inclined to play Jackson if they still have something to play for.

That’s a big deal. The team has struggled mightily on offense with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, scoring 17 points or fewer in four straight games. With Pittsburgh being strong defensively, they could very well struggle with him under center once again.

The Steelers would get a huge boost if Jackson is out again, but I like their chances regardless of who is under center. Mike Tomlin is the GOAT when it comes to covering the spread as an underdog. The Steelers are 50-27-3  in that scenario since Tomlin took over, making them easily the most profitable team in football over that stretch. They’ve been even better as divisional underdogs, posting a record of 20-8-2 against the spread.

The sharps have been all over the Steelers to start the week, which has caused this number to drop from +4.5 to +3.5 in short order. Still, I like the Steelers at anything better than a field goal.