Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

It probably feels a bit weird to look at this game and see the Steelers listed as four-point road favorites when the Ravens have been the best team in the AFC – and maybe the NFL – for most of the season.

However, Baltimore has already secured the top seed in the conference, so they have nothing to play for in this game. With that in mind, it’s very possible that the Ravens could rest some of their key starters.

Head coach John Harbaugh has “yet to decide” on whether or not Lamar Jackson will suit up, but the most likely outcome is that Tyler Huntley will see the majority of the snaps on Sunday, if not all of the snaps.

Aug 12, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (2) rolls out to pass in the third quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Huntley was technically a Pro Bowl QB in 2022 – example No. 105867 of why the NFL Pro Bowl is a joke – but he’s a significant downgrade from Jackson. Huntley has averaged just 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) in his career while Jackson has averaged 8.4 AY/A in what is expected to be the second MVP-season of his career.

If Jackson were to sit, it seems likely that the rest of the Ravens’ top starters would sit as well. That includes playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers as well as key players on Baltimore's elite defense. The Ravens currently rank second in EPA allowed per play defensively thus far in 2023 behind only the Browns.

On the other side, this game means everything for the Steelers. The team managed to secure a record over .500 for the 17th straight season under Mike Tomlin, and the playoffs are still a possibility. Pittsburgh would still need some help even with a win, but a win coupled with a Buffalo loss, a Jacksonville loss or tie, or a tie between Houston and Indianapolis would do the job. The Steelers can technically make the playoffs even without beating the Ravens, but their most straightforward path is to get a victory over their division rivals.

The big news in Pittsburgh is the QB situation. Mason Rudolph has emerged from the ashes to lead the team to back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Seahawks, and they've scored 30-plus points in each of those wins. That's a quick turnaround considering that the Steelers had exactly zero 30-plus performances in their first 14 games, so it's safe to say that Rudolph has given them a major spark offensively.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) throws in the third quarter during a Week 16 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday, Dec. 23, 2023, at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

It’s no surprise that Tomlin has decided to keep riding the hot hand, having already named Rudolph as the starter for Week 18. That reportedly hasn’t sat well with Kenny Pickett, but at this point, it’s hard to argue against sticking with Rudolph. He’s averaged an elite 11.2 AY/A in his limited starts this season while Pickett is down at 6.4 AY/A on the year. Rudolph is also the No. 2 QB in EPA + CPOE over the past two weeks behind only the likely MVP, Jackson.

In general, teams like the Steelers in “must-win” spots tend to become overvalued from a betting perspective. We’ve seen that have a significant impact already on the line in this contest, as Pittsburgh has moved from +1.5 to -4.0 in approximately 24 hours.

However, while the Steelers have gotten the majority of the early bet tickets, the Ravens have secured 93% of the early dollars per the Action Network. Even assuming that Baltimore will be starting Huntley and other backups, it’s possible that they’re still the better team in this matchup.

This has also historically been the anti-Tomlin spot. Although Tomlin-led teams have thrived at home and as underdogs, he’s just 85-96-2 ATS as a favorite. I’m ultimately looking to see how high this line can go. If the Steelers get to -4.5 or higher, I’d strongly consider making a play on Baltimore.