Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks

This Steelers-Seahawks game may not jump off the page as a marquee matchup, but it's an extremely important game for both squads.

The Steelers managed to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a demolition of the Bengals on Saturday. They put together one of their best offensive performances of the season, with an unlikely hero at QB: Mason Rudolph.

Rudolph was once considered a future replacement for Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, but he was eventually put on the back burner to make way for Kenny Pickett. Rudolph had only started two games since 2019, but he was nothing short of spectacular against Cincinnati this past week.

He racked up 290 passing yards and two TDs with an average of 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. Among QBs with at least 20 plays last week, Rudolph ranked ninth in EPA + CPOE composite.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) throws in the third quarter during a Week 16 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday, Dec. 23, 2023, at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Is Rudolph good enough to be a starter at the NFL level? That remains to be seen, but he’s at least earned another opportunity to start this week at Seattle while Pickett continues to recover from his ankle injury. There’s a chance that Pickett could return for this game, but with how well Rudolph played on Saturday, I’d be surprised if that were to happen.

Defensively, the Steelers did basically what they’ve done all season against the Bengals: they allowed plenty of yards but made up for it with big plays. Pittsburgh's three sacks and three turnovers contributed toward limiting Cincinnati to only 11 points.

The Steelers' defense remains a statistical anomaly, ranking 21st in yards per game allowed but seventh in points allowed, but they’re an above-average unit at the bare minimum.

On the other side, the Seahawks have had their own QB injury issues. Drew Lock started two games in place of Geno Smith, including a comeback victory over the Eagles, but Smith returned to the lineup in Week 16 at Tennessee. It was far from his best performance, but he managed to do just enough to get the Seahawks across the finish line.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) throws against the Tennessee Titans during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023. Photo Credit: Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Their win over the Titans puts them in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card playoff spot. NFL.com gives them a 69% chance of making the postseason, but the Seahawks will need a win over the Steelers this week to maintain control. The Packers, Vikings, Saints, and Falcons are all just one game behind them in the standings.

Seattle will need their offense to be firing on all cylinders because their defense is simply not up to snuff. They currently rank 29th in the league in EPA allowed per play defensively, largely due to their struggles against stopping the run. The Seahawks' young secondary hasn’t been great against the pass either, but they've still been better in dropback EPA allowed (22nd) than in rushing EPA allowed (30th).

This game will be played in Seattle, but there are a few things working in Pittsburgh’s favor. For starters, they’ll have an extra day of rest after having played at home on Saturday while the Seahawks played on the road in Tennessee on Sunday. That could make a slight difference.

The Steelers have also been an elite underdog team under head coach Mike Tomlin. No coach in football has won bettors more money as a dog than Tomlin since 2005, having posted a record of 56-31-3 ATS. That’s good for a +24.8% ROI.

Ultimately, this game comes down to how you view Rudolph. If he’s at all close to the same player that he was last Saturday, this is clearly too many points for Pittsburgh. However, if Rudolph loses his Christmas magic and reverts to the backup-level QB we’ve seen in previous years, it could be a nice time to sell high on the Steelers.

The sharps seem to prefer the latter option. Seattle is getting 54% of the dollars on just 38% of the bets per the Action Network, which has pushed this game over the key number of 3.0 at most locations. If you can still find a Seahawks -3.0 out there somewhere, though, grabbing that while you can seems like a prudent decision.