Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

Both of these teams are coming off their best performances of the season so far in Week 3. Pittsburgh managed to hold on for a five-point win at Las Vegas (thanks to Josh McDaniels kicking a field goal at the end) while Houston secured an outright win as a big underdog at Baltimore. The Steelers now sit at 2-1 on the season, and the Texans are at 1-2 after getting their first win on the road.

Pittsburgh has historically had a strong defensive unit, but their numbers are down to start the year. The Steelers rank just 28th in yards allowed to opponents per game, and they don't rank much better in points allowed.

However, things aren’t nearly as bad for Pittsburgh as those metrics might suggest.

They still have one of the best defenders in football in T.J. Watt, who is capable of making game-changing plays each week. Watt has 6.0 sacks and two forced fumbles through three weeks, and he’s getting plenty of help from his friends. Overall, the Steelers already have eight takeaways, which is tied for second-most in the league thus far.

Sep 24, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) is hit by Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) after making a pass during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

This unit might not be completely stifling opponents, but the Steelers' defense is capable of getting opponents off the field before they can find the end zone. Pittsburgh ranks ninth in EPA per play allowed, so they’re still an above-average unit.

The bigger questions surround the offense. Kenny Pickett and company looked brutal in the first two weeks, but they bounced back with a solid performance against the Raiders. In fact, the offense managed a season-high 333 yards of total offense en route to 23 points.

While it was a nice showing, the Steelers still have some major issues. Specifically, their offensive line has been a disaster. They rank dead last in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass blocking grade, and they’re 29th in run blocking. Pickett and Najee Harris have gotten a lot of the blame for the Steelers’ struggles, but they haven’t been given much help.

From a matchup perspective, the Texans fall somewhere in between the Raiders and the Steelers' first two opponents of the year, the 49ers and Browns. Houston currently ranks 18th in EPA per play allowed under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, who's done a solid job of turning around a unit that was one of the worst in the league in 2022.

That said, the Texans’ front four remains a work in progress. Will Anderson Jr. has shown promise in his rookie season, currently ranked 31st among 112 edge players per PFF, but the rest of the unit is below-average. That means this could be a strong week for the Steelers’ much-maligned offensive line.

On the other side, C.J. Stroud has had an impressive start to his NFL career. He’s racked up 906 yards, four TDs, and zero INTs through his first three starts with an average of 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A).

That’s not just good for a rookie, it’s good, period. Stroud's AY/A ranks fifth in the entire NFL, putting him behind only Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins. In terms of PFF grade, Stroud ranks 18th among 34 quarterbacks.

Sep 24, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

Can he continue to produce at such a high level? That remains to be seen, but rookie QBs generally tend to improve as the season progresses. From 2018 to 2022, rookie QBs have averaged -0.11 EPA per attempt with 46 TDs and 46 INTs over the first four weeks. From Week 12 on, those figures improve to -0.05 EPA per attempt with 154 TDs and 102 INTs.

Stroud is already far exceeding those benchmarks, but it’s only natural that he should continue to improve as he gets more acclimated to the NFL.

From a betting standpoint, the Texans are starting to get a bit of respect. They were listed as 4.5-point home underdogs on the lookahead line, but they opened as just 3.0-point underdogs this week. The public seems to like Houston as well, as 59% of the early spread bets have come on the Texans per the Action Network.

It always scares me to side with a public dog, but I do like the Texans in this spot. The current number suggests that the Steelers are roughly 4.5 to 5.0 points better than the Texans on a neutral field, and with what we’ve seen so far this season, I think that’s too many points.

Additionally, Mike Tomlin has historically been an elite coach as an underdog but not so much as a favorite. As a road favorite, Tomlin is just 30-39-2 ATS for his career (including postseason).