Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Both of these teams looked horrific offensively for much of Week 2. One of these teams still came out with a win. 

We’ll start with that team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were able to overcome extreme ineptitude on offense (for the second straight week) to pull out a much-needed victory over the Browns. The 26-22 win was built off the back of two defensive scores: a pick-six TD on the first pass of the game and a sack-fumble late in the fourth quarter that put the Steelers up four. 

Kenny Pickett (232-1-2) was able to connect with George Pickens (4-127-1) for an electric 71-yard TD play, but outside of that, struggled mightily again. Many of Pickett’s underlying stats through two games are worse than what he posted last season, although some of the reason for his struggles can potentially be linked to playcalling. Numerous times against the Browns, Pickett seemingly had nowhere to throw the ball, with the slant pass to Pickens being the one rare occasion where he had a man open downfield. 

Pat Freiermuth (1-2) is a name the Steelers desperately need to get going with Diontae Johnson out until at least Week 5, and the Raiders do make for a great opponent for Freiermuth to find his footing against. Through two weeks, Vegas has allowed opposing TEs to post a 16-112-1 line against them (on 19 targets) and once again feature a below average coverage unit in the secondary.  

Where Vegas could succeed on defense is in the trenches. Maxx Crosby is still one of the premier pass rushers in the league, and the Steelers O-line has allowed the third most pressures against thus far. The good news for Pittsburgh is that if they can stop Crosby, they may be able to keep Pickett more upright in this game than he has been all season. Vegas’s defense has the fewest overall pressures with eight through two weeks. 

Sep 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) gets past Buffalo Bills cornerback Taron Johnson (7) on a run in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Jimmy Garoppolo (0.275) ranks out fifth in EPA per play among all quarterbacks entering Week 3, but that hasn’t helped ignite the passing output for the Raiders. Garoppolo could only manage 185 yards in Week 2 against Buffalo as their ground game got completely stymied for the second week in a row. 

Josh Jacobs (9-2, 5-51) now has 50 yards on 27 rush attempts to begin the season. It’s possible missing most of camp has hurt Jacobs. The Steelers may offer a decent get right spot, though, as they’ve allowed a league-high 5.6 yards per carry against to begin the year. 

The Raiders O-line has been solid at limiting pressure, but TJ Watt and the Steelers' D-line offer a different challenge than Buffalo or Denver brought in that regard. The Steelers have landed 25 pressures through two weeks (third-most in the league) and will likely need to make plays—and potentially score points—if the Steelers want to come out on top. 

Injury-wise, the Raiders are somewhat healthy but would love to get Jakobi Meyers (concussion - questionable) back for this game. Meyers was key in the Raiders' Week 1 win, posting a 9-81-2. The Steelers may also be missing S Minkah Fitzpatrick in this game after he was evaluated for a collapsed lung after the Browns game. 

This game opened at Steelers -1.5 but has flipped to Vegas -1.5 overnight. It’s easy to see how the public is somewhat sour on Pittsburgh after how despicable they have been on offense, but this is the Raiders we are talking about. Additionally, if we are getting points with the Steelers, we also get to bet on a coach in Mike Tomlin who thrives as an underdog. Since 2017 the Steelers are 19-11-0 as road underdogs, and since 2020 they’re 17-11-1 ATS as underdogs, overall. 

It’s hard to say where this line will close, but Pittsburgh at +2.0 or better would be tough to pass up. Even with their offensive woes, they’ll likely be able to keep this game close against a Raiders team with few defensive stalwarts.