Stefon Diggs Traded to Texans - What it Means for Fantasy Football
Ian Hartitz breaks down the fantasy football implications of Stefon Diggs being traded to the Houston Texans on April 3, 2024.
Stefon Diggs Traded to Texans
Oh, you really thought that Wednesday, April 3, was going to be a normal day in the NFL world? How cute.
While Stefon Diggs’ tenure with the Bills didn’t exactly end on a high note, he was still objectively one of the league’s very best WRs during his four seasons in Buffalo.
- 2020: 127 receptions-1,535 yards-8 TD (PPR WR3)
- 2021: 103-1,225-10 (WR7)
- 2022: 108-1,429-11 (WR4)
- 2023: 107-1,183-8 (WR9)
The route-running maestro earned ESPN’s fifth-best “Open Score” over the last four seasons, as Diggs proved to be one helluva problem for even the league’s best corners to match up with one-on-one for any extended period.
While Father Time is coming for Diggs (31 in November), the Texans don’t even really need the longtime No. 1 WR to be at the peak of his powers to serve as an upgrade from dusty Robert Woods.
Fantasy Football Impact of Stefon Diggs Trade to Texans
The fit is truly *chef's kiss*, as Diggs provides the sort of savvy intermediate threat that this (already dope) Houston passing game was missing last season.
The way-too-early projections for this new-look Houston passing attack:
- Stefon Diggs: Here’s to hoping Diggs’ final 10 games in Buffalo were more of a fugazi and less of a sign of things to come. His QB play remains a massive positive for his fantasy projection, but his chances of breezing past 150 targets are now in question. Look for Diggs to settle in as more of a low-end WR2 as opposed to the world-beating WR1 he’s been for the last half-decade.
- Nico Collins: There was already some debate as to whether the disparity in ADP between Nico and Tank Dell was too wide. They did post virtually identical usage and production in seven games together last season after all. While Collins proved more than capable of making the most out of his opportunities last season (3.11 yards per route run ranked second), he profiles as more of a boom-or-bust WR3 without the benefit of a weekly WR1-level workload.
- Tank Dell: Hopefully this trade has nothing to do with Dell’s return from injury. Dr. Morse believes Dell will be 100% with no issues for 2024. Dr. Chona also notes that data projects no lingering impact. Dr. Mueller adds Dell’s best return-to-play comp is Jaylen Waddle and not Tony Pollard. Dell was absolutely electric as a rookie, but now faces the prospect of being the No. 3 target in his own offense. He’s far too talented to be ranked outside the position’s top-36 options; just realize WR3s like Zay Flowers, Amari Cooper and Christian Kirk figure to have far loftier target projections.
- Dalton Schultz: Already posted pretty stark splits when the Texans’ primary WRs were healthy last season; now Schultz profiles as the weekly *No. 4* pass-game option in Houston. This role should still produce low-end TE1 caliber production for the 36 million-dollar man; just realize the ex-Cowboys’ path to top-five numbers seems rougher than ever.
As for C.J. Stroud: The stud second-year QB is rather easily the biggest winner of the whole ordeal.
The reigning rookie of the year was already the consensus QB5 in the Fantasy Life Rankings behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
While the dual-threat nature of the former three QBs will always make it tough for the Ohio State product to beat their production in fantasy football land, Stroud vs. Mahomes is worth a real conversation at this point – particularly if the Chiefs wind up losing their No. 1 WR to an extended suspension.
Houston: You don’t have a problem.
Suddenly we don’t need more than one hand to count the number passing attacks more lethal than what the Texans will be cooking with in 2024; best of luck to the poor defenses that will be tasked with slowing down this loaded juggernaut.
And then there are the Bills, who are suddenly in dire need of a No. 1 WR. Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman has Buffalo filling this hole in a major way by using the 28th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft on Texas WR Adonai Mitchell. He comes in as the WR8 in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie WR Super Model, but that could look low in the future based on this pristine potential landing spot. Let’s just say Mitchell wasn’t always fed the most catchable targets during his time in Austin.
In the meantime, Bills Mafia’s tentative top-three WRs atop the depth chart are as follows:
- Curtis Samuel: The Swiss-army knife was expected to provide a much-needed complementary YAC jolt to this WR room; now Samuel is suddenly looking at a target projection that might just start with a one. Don’t get too carried away – it seems inevitable the Bills will add AT LEAST one additional high-end WR come late April – but the present gap in ADP between Samuel (WR57) and guys like Jayden Reed (WR34) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR43) is probably a bit too wide.
- Khalil Shakir: Deserves credit for out-producing Diggs on less than half as many targets down the stretch of last season. Still, Shakir’s status as the WR9 in PPR points over expected in 2023 demonstrates the reality that there could be a bit of regression on the way in the efficiency department. The rising third-year talent is a temporary winner here, but he’s still not guaranteed a starting spot in two-WR sets – let alone a featured top-three role in this passing game.
- Mack Hollins: Believed to simply be the No. 4 WR, Hollins now profiles as a potential starter in two-WR sets and someone who could quietly flirt with 60-plus targets on the season as the Gabe Davis replacement. Don’t get carried away, but Hollins (WR116) could provide boom-or-bust WR5-esque numbers, which would be perfectly fine at his current dirt-cheap price.
The biggest pass-catcher winner in Buffalo is probably TE Dalton Kincaid considering he and Diggs both made a habit of winning the same areas of the field. His TE6 ADP is more than fair for a guy with a chance to emerge as Josh f*cking Allen’s No. 1 target; at a minimum, there’s little reason for the talented second-year receiver to be going behind Kyle Pitts in early drafts.
The news isn’t great for Josh Allen, although his rushing upside remains such a cheat code in fantasy land that it’s hard to knock him off his perch as overall QB1. Last season Jalen Hurts (16) and Josh Allen (14) led all QBs in rush attempts inside the five-yard line. The next-closest signal-caller finished with ... five.
Now, Allen’s second-round ADP might be a bit too pricey, but we’re still talking about the same guy who has averaged a full two additional fantasy points per game than any other QB since 2020.
The end of a mini-era in Buffalo, but at least Brandon Beane and company have the No. 28 and No. 60 overall picks to invest in their newfound offensive hole.
Their next day-one or day-two WR drafted will be their first since 2017; here’s to hoping whoever they land forms another productive fantasy-friendly relationship with Allen.