Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

This is a key game within the NFC South as the Falcons attempt to tighten their grasp on the divisional crown and take a big step toward a playoff berth.

The Buccaneers are just a game back in the division but are running out of time to close the gap if they fail to win here. Both squads have relatively soft schedules down the stretch, so the winner of this game will be in a great position to go on and take the division.

Looking at this matchup, the first thing that jumps out to me is that this game will feature two of the top four rush defenses in the NFL by EPA allowed per play. This presents a much bigger challenge for the Falcons, who are more reliant on their running game to put up points, while the Bucs have a more functional passing attack to lean on.

Don’t try to tell Arthur Smith he should consider throwing the ball more in this game, though. His Falcons have the lowest PROE (pass rate over expected) in the league by a wide margin and will no doubt attempt to establish their ground game in this contest. 

The good news for fantasy managers is that Bijan Robinson’s usage is finally where we want it. The talented rookie has averaged 23 opportunities (carries + targets) per game over his last three contests and is locked in as a top 10 RB for the week in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks.

Both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson have maintained meaningful roles in that time, but that is more of a testament to how RB-heavy this offense is than anything else. 

If Desmond Ridder is forced to throw, Drake London is likely to be on the other end. He has had at least a 20% target share in every game going back to Week 4 and does offer some upside against a Tampa Bay secondary that is giving up the fifth most passing yards per game this season.

When the Bucs have the ball, they are likely going to want to move it through the air. Tampa Bay averages the third-fewest rushing yards per game, and the Falcons' run defense is no joke.

That doesn’t necessarily mean a bad outing for Rachaad White, as he has been heavily involved in the passing and is simply on too much of a hot streak to consider benching. Since Week 7, White hasn’t finished lower than the RB18 and has been a top-12 back in PPR scoring in six of seven games.

The Bucs' other elite weapon is Mike Evans, who has now reached 1,000 receiving yards in 10 straight seasons. Evans has seen at least 9 targets in each of his last four games and is poised to smash yet again this week, especially if the Bucs throw the ball plenty. 

You can’t really trust anyone else in this Tampa Bay offense, but if you want a super deep play for DFS contests, Cade Otton is flying under the radar after he didn’t see a target in Week 13. However, he still ran a route on 94% of dropbacks, and the Falcons' defense has given up the sixth-most points to TEs this season, so he’s in a decent bounce-back spot.