Texans at Colts

This game is critical from an NFL Draft perspective; the Texans can secure the #1 pick with a loss and the Colts could take another step towards a top 5 pick if they manage to lose this game. Although the Texans still have the worst record in the NFL, it is safe to say they have been playing much better football than Indy has over the past month or so. Ever since the Colts blew the largest lead in NFL history, they have scored just one TD and 13 total points in their following two games. 

Indianapolis will be starting Sam Ehlinger at QB, which could actually be an upgrade over what Nick Foles provided the last couple weeks. Ehlinger played in the second half last week and threw a TD to Michael Pittman as the lone bright spot for this offense. Pittman is a high-end WR3 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks this week and one of the only pieces of the Colts’ offense you can feel confident putting in a lineup this weekend. The other player with some projectable fantasy value is RB Zack Moss, who has averaged nearly 20 carries per game over his last three contests. 

After three strong showings, the Texans fell totally flat last week and got blown out by the Jaguars. Davis Mills’ days as the starting QB in Houston are numbered so he is going to want to put a good performance on tape. It will be interesting to see if he stays in the game if the Texans have a lead in the second half. It’s hard to imagine many players in this offense being fantasy relevant this week, but Brandin Cooks and Chris Moore are the two who should benefit most if Houston does move the ball and put up points. The Houston backfield has been split between Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale, but neither player offers much upside apart from falling into the endzone.

The Colts are slight favorites in this matchup, but there isn’t really any outcome that could surprise me. It would be surprising if the Texans allowed the top overall pick to slip out of their grasp, but it is also hard to play worse than the Colts have for the past few weeks. Ultimately, I think Ehlinger will provide enough juice to the Colts offense that they will emerge with the win, but I don’t expect many points or fantasy-relevant performances from this game.