Texans at Colts

The 2023 season all comes down to one game for the Colts and the Texans. These two teams, who both started the year with rookie head coaches and rookie QBs taken in the top five of the 2023 draft, now find themselves up against each other in Week 18 with a playoff spot on the line. The winner goes on, the loser goes home. 

The Texans righted the ship last week. They dismantled the Titans 26-3, and C.J. Stroud—who missed two games with a concussion—was as effective as ever, completing 75% of his passes.

The Texans also ran the ball well with Devin Singletary, who averaged over 4.5 yards per carry for the fourth game in a row. It’s a significant development, considering that they were one of the worst rushing offenses in the league through the first half of the year.

The Colts also managed a win and now sit at 9-7, tied with Houston and Jacksonville for the division lead (the Jaguars own the tiebreaker). The Colts got a lead against the Raiders and held on late against a limited offense. A win is a win, but there were some concerning signs from the Colts' defense. They allowed Davante Adams to get loose for two TDs and multiple big plays, while fifth-round rookie Aiden O’Connell made some key conversions down the stretch. 

Both teams have rookie head coaches and some holes on defense that the other team can exploit. Houston’s offense is much more potent with Stroud back and ranks 13th in offensive DVOA. The Colts aren’t terrible in that aspect either (18th in offensive DVOA), but the edge at QB with Stroud (12th in EPA per play) vs. Gardner Minshew (20th in EPA per play) is a big one to exploit for betting.

Injury-wise, the Colts were without RB Zack Moss and slot CB Kenny Moore II against the Raiders. Neither are huge losses, but having both back for Week 18 would provide some depth insurance. For the Texans, they got back Will Anderson Jr. last week, and it helped their rush defense hold the Titans to under 4.0 yards per carry. They also had Steven Nelson and Sheldon Rankins in the lineup, which helped considerably (Rankins scored a defensive TD) and led to one of their best defensive performances of the year. 

Dec 31, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) and tight end Kylen Granson (83) celebrate a first down in the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Both these teams are near full health, so it comes down to who has the better edge and who can do a better job exploiting said edge in the actual game. Ultimately, I trust the Texans (specifically Stroud) more in this spot. 

Houston’s passing offense matches up well with a limited secondary that is 27th in yards per attempt over their last three games. The Texans' secondary has struggled in spots, and I certainly do like this matchup for WR Michael Pittman this week—who may be an excellent ladder bet on his receiving yards in Week 18. However, getting Rankins, Nelson, and Anderson Jr. all healthy and in the lineup provided huge dividends last week, and I expect that to carry over into Week 18 against a somewhat turnover-prone QB in Gardner Minshew. 

Grabbing the Texans early in the week makes a ton of sense for betting, too. There’s almost no chance the Colts move to three-point favorites with Stroud healthy, but there is certainly the chance the line moves in Houston’s favor, which now sits at Texans +1.0. 

The line may not move much, but I also won’t be shocked if we see a complete flip, with Houston closing at -2.0 or higher. I’d still play the Texans at anything better than -3.0, but grabbing Houston early as underdogs is one of my favorite spots of the week.