Texans at Cowboys (-16.5) – 45.5 total

The Texans have to be waving the white flag at this point. Their season has been over for weeks now, even though they were only officially eliminated from playoff contention last week.

The team has started Kyle Allen at quarterback the past two weeks, and the only excuse for that decision is tanking. Allen put the Texans into a 30-point halftime deficit two weeks ago vs. the Dolphins, and he was arguably even worse last week. The Browns managed to put 27 points on the board against Houston without the benefit of an offensive touchdown. They scored twice on defense – one interception return, one fumble return – and Donovan Peoples-Jones also took a punt return to the house. The Texans offense was held out of the end zone until there were less than two minutes on the clock, and at that point, the game had already been decided.

Fortunately, head coach Lovie Smith has made the decision to go back to Davis Mills at quarterback vs. the Cowboys. Mills is far from a world-beater – he ranks 29th out of 37 qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus grade – but he is lightyears better than Allen.

Mills’ reward for returning to the starting lineup is a date with the best defense in football. The Cowboys’ pass-rush has dominated opponents all season, ranking first in the league in adjusted sack rate. They also rank first in defensive DVOA, and they trail only the Bills in terms of overall DVOA.

The Cowboys are coming off a thumping of the Colts last week, winning by a final score of 54-19. That said, the game was much closer than the final score indicated. The Colts actually trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter before their offense self-destructed with turnovers on four straight possessions.

The Cowboys are expected to take care of business in this spot, and as such, they’re listed as the largest favorite of the entire season. Betting on a massive favorite is scary, but it hasn’t been a huge dealbreaker historically: Favorites of more than two touchdowns have gone 47-45-3 against the spread since 2003. Dak Prescott also has an excellent history as a large favorite, posting a record of 14-6-1 when laying a touchdown or more.

This line moved down from 17 to 16.5 with the news that Mills would start at quarterback, but the sharps appear to have some interest in the Cowboys. They’ve received 64% of the early spread bets and 72% of the dollars, so not even the pros want anything to do with the Texans at this point.