Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons

Both of these teams are currently sitting at 2-2, but they’ve gotten there in different ways. The Texans have won two straight games after starting 0-2 while the Falcons have lost the last two weeks after starting off the season 2-0.

Atlanta entered the year as a popular sleeper pick in the wide-open NFC South. They had some blue-chip players on offense, especially after drafting Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, and the Falcons spent a bunch of money on free agent additions this past offseason.

The Falcons also headed into 2023 with the easiest projected schedule in the league using Vegas win total over/unders, so there was some hope that the team could build upon their 7-10 record from last season. Unfortunately, that scenario looks less likely by the week.

Atlanta's offense is predicated on their ground attack, which helps to mitigate Desmond Ridder's deficiencies at QB. The Falcons were dead last in dropback over expectation in 2022, and they’re at -7.01% through four weeks in 2023.

Oct 1, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) carries the ball against Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Darious Williams (31) in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

When Atlanta has been able to lean on their rushing attack, they’ve found success, as they rank eighth in rushing EPA and 16th in rushing success rate thus far on the season.

That said, teams that rely on the run as much as the Falcons don’t really know how to play from behind.

That’s exactly what’s plagued them in the past two weeks when they lost to the Lions and Jaguars by a combined score of 43-13.

When Ridder does have to pass, things have gone about as poorly as expected. The Falcons rank 31st in EPA per dropback, and Ridder ranks 33rd out of 34 QBs this season in EPA + CPOE composite.

In short, if you can put Atlanta in a hole and force them to abandon the run, they have almost no chance of making up the difference through the air.

From a matchup perspective, Houston has been roughly league-average on defense. They’re 17th in rushing success rate allowed, and they’re about the same against the pass. While the Texans may not have the most raw talent in the league on defense, DeMeco Ryans is getting the most out of this unit.

The big surprise has been how efficient the Texans’ offense has looked under rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Stroud hasn’t just been good for a rookie; he’s been good, period.

Oct 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) drops back to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

He’s racked up 1,212 passing yards with six TDs and zero INTs through his first four starts, good for an average of 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt. The only QBs who have been better in that department are Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa, and the Dolphins and 49ers are the two best offenses in the league in terms of yards per game.

Rookie QBs tend to face a steep learning curve, so the fact that Stroud is this good this early is extremely promising. The last QB to tear it up in his rookie season like this was Justin Herbert, who is now widely considered one of the best QBs in football.

The Falcons were listed as 3.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line, but they’re now down to as low as -1.5 at certain locations. That’s not all that surprising given how both teams fared last week.

It’s always tempting to look at line moves as overreactions, especially when they cross key numbers, but I’m not sure that the market has reacted enough to Stroud and Ryans. This number still suggests that the Falcons are better than the Texans on a neutral field, and I don’t agree with that assessment.

Atlanta also has to play immediately after a London game, which could result in a slight hangover. Teams have gotten infinitely better when it comes to traveling, but it still mitigates the Falcons' home-field advantage a bit.

Most of the data suggests that home field is worth less than ever, so this really comes down to who you want to back: Stroud or Ridder. I’ll take Stroud 10 times out of 10.