Houston Texans @ New York Jets

The Jets have felt more like a soap opera than a football team this season. It all started with the offseason acquisition of Aaron Rodgers, the GOAT in terms of drama at the QB position, and they haven’t slowed down since.

Rodgers then suffered a season-ending injury just four plays into Week 1, which left Zach Wilson to try and keep the team afloat. Wilson unsurprisingly failed, so New York made a switch and gave Tim Boyle a shot. Sadly, Boyle is one of the few NFL QBs that is unquestionably worse than Wilson, so that went about as well as expected.

Who the Jets will turn to now at QB remains to be seen. Rumor has it that the team would like to go back to Wilson but that he's reluctant to step back into the starting role. Trevor Siemian is another potential option at QB after having played last week against the Falcons, but New York also brought in Brett Rypien.

Dec 3, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets quarterback Trevor Siemian (14) throws the ball during the second half against the Atlanta Falcons at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

It seems like any of them could start this week against the Texans, but the likelihood is low that any one of the Jets' QB options will be a significant upgrade over the others.

But while the offense has floundered, the Jets' defense has continued to be dominant. They currently rank fifth in EPA allowed per play, and New York's defense limited Atlanta to just 13 points and 194 yards of total offense last Sunday. If the team could've gotten anything from the offense, it should’ve been an easy victory.

On the other side, the Texans are coming off a big win over the Broncos. That puts them at 7-5 and eighth in the current AFC playoff picture. The three teams in front of them in the Wild Card race are also 7-5, and the Jaguars are suddenly vulnerable atop the AFC South after Trevor Lawrence suffered a high-ankle sprain on Monday Night Football. In other words, Houston is very much a threat o make the postseason.

Unfortunately, Houston also has some injury woes of their own. Tank Dell went down with a fractured fibula last week against Denver, and he's been one of the most dynamic WRs in the league this year even as a rookie. He currently ranks as the No. 15 WR per Pro Football Focus (PFF), so Dell's absence will be a major blow to the Texans' offense going forward.

Dec 3, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Trainers move an injured Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) two the cart as he injured himself on a touchdown play against the Denver Broncos at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Luckily, the Texans have a bunch of other weapons to lean on. Nico Collins has blossomed in his third year, and Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz, and Robert Woods have all had their moments.

More importantly, Houston's most pivotal piece on offense is still healthy. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has exceeded all expectations and is on pace to have one of the greatest rookie QB seasons in NFL history. He currently leads the league in passing yards (3,540), and Stroud ranks second among QBs in adjusted yards per attempt (8.89). Houston looks to have quickly found another franchise QB after having parted ways with Deshaun Watson two years ago.

That said, I wouldn’t expect elite production from Stroud against this ferocious Jets defense this week. The rookie has played well overall but also struggled against an elite Ravens defense earlier in the year. In fact, he had a season-worst 5.50 adjusted yards per attempt in that game, so this could be a battle of attrition in New York on Sunday.

Ultimately, who starts at QB for the Jets will play a big factor in this game. Siemian, Rypien, and Wilson would all be preferred options over Boyle, but as gross as it might sound, Wilson would probably give New York the best shot to cover at home given his familiarity with the playbook and recent starting experience.

Assuming Wilson is announced as the starter before Sunday, I would have some interest in the Jets as nearly full-TD underdogs. If it’s Siemian – or Rypien from right off the street – it would be much tougher to back Gang Green.