Betting Overview

• Implied Total: 44.0 (-110, BetMGM)
• Spread: Ravens -9.5 (-112, DraftKings)

Game Analysis

It’s Week 1 of the 2023 season, and, to quote Takeoff:

Let’s get it.

The theme of the Texans’ bout with the Ravens is new. Houston has fresh faces at every skill position, along with changes to their coaching staff.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s flipped the script and has theoretically become a pass-oriented offense. And they added the weapons to make it more than just theory. But, based on the spread, a (relatively) easy start to the season should help them work out any kinks in real time. However, let’s start with the visiting squad first.

CJ Stroud will make his NFL debut at M&T Bank Stadium. The second-overall pick in this year’s class ended his collegiate campaign first in passing efficiency rating and adjusted passing yards per attempt.

His +6.7% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is a breath of fresh air compared to Davis Mills, but the Ravens may make it tough for Stroud to operate from the pocket.

After trading for Roquan Smith, Baltimore was sixth in pressure and sack rate. And despite drafting a center on Day 2, the Texans still have a below-average offensive line.

Stroud did scramble on 8.7% of his dropbacks through the preseason, which may help keep a couple of drives alive. But if he does get time in the pocket, he might be able to test the Ravens’ defensive weakness.

Baltimore potentially missing Marlon Humphrey is a sizeable crack in their armor. Rock Ya-Sin, projected to start opposite Humphrey, also has an injury. As a result, Stroud may find some success against the Ravens’ secondary and has a couple of options worth stashing on fantasy benches. 

Nico Collins has soared up draft boards after cementing himself as the team’s WR1 with Stroud on the field. The third-year receiver took 90.2% of his routes from the perimeter, and yet, across the games he was active, he had a higher YPRR than Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman, and DJ Moore. And WRs with a build similar to Collins have succeeded against Baltimore within the last year.

George Pickens (7-107-0), Devante Parker (6-85-0), and Mike Evans (8-72-0) got the best of the Ravens’ defenders, and Collins may be able to replicate the performance. But if the Texans can’t find their way through the air, their running game should help.

Nov 27, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs with the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore was 15th in rushing success rate allowed, and Dameon Pierce was ahead of Nick Chubb in NextGenStat’s efficiency metric. And his pass-game involvement should make him a priority in drafts despite the perceived bad matchup in Week 1. Regardless, it’s not like Houston will take him off the field if Baltimore runs up the score.

Lamar Jackson returned to Baltimore after signing his deal to find a whole new offense. Todd Monken had signed on as OC, Odell Beckham came over in free agency, and the Ravens added Zay Flowers to the mix.

With Mark Andrews back healthy, you’d be hard-pressed to remember Jackson throwing to DeSean Jackson in 2022. 

But it happened! 

Regardless, there’s still a chance we won’t learn about Baltimore’s new offense. It’s not because Houston has an elite defense - quite the opposite.

The Texans were 24th in dropback success rate allowed and yet only gave up one (yes, one) top-12 week to a WR (Michael Pittman, Week 1).

Teams would plow through them with their rushing attacks. Houston gave up the second-highest explosive run rate over the 2023 regular season. 15 RBs became RB1s for the weekend against Houston, from Austin Ekeler to JaMycal Hasty. But assuming we get some fight out of the Texans, Baltimore’s WR trio becomes tricky.

Flowers has been working with Jackson since the early summer while Bateman worked his way back from injury. The rookie WR may have the clearest path to looks from Jackson. But that’s likely because of the cloud of uncertainty hanging over Bateman.

While currently healthy, the third-year receiver has played in 18 games. But Bateman has been behind only Andrews in the pecking order when on the field. Fantasy drafters may have the “he’s burned me before” mentality when deciding on Bateman.

But if there’s ever a week to feel confident about starting him, given his likely share of the offense, it’ll be in Week 1 against the Texans.