Texans at Titans (-3.5) – 35.5 total

The Texans traveling to Nashville is one of the few outdoor contests that won’t be as impacted by the midwest weather. Wind speeds will be at 11 mph, and the temperature will be in the low teens. It’ll be cold but manageable. However, the game total still sits at a minuscule 35.5 points. And I understand why after looking at both offenses.

I’ll give credit where it’s due: Houston is playing like they have nothing left to lose. Turning Jeff Driskel into their version of Taysom Hill wasn’t the worst idea. And despite the injuries to their receiving corps, it’s been surprisingly effective.

It wasn’t a shock to see Houston dead last in EPA per play over the month leading up to Davis Mills’ benching. However, they’re up to 24th, after averaging 25.3 yards per drive in two tough battles against the Cowboys and Chiefs. Neither stat should compel you to start anyone from the offense, but I can make a case for one.

Brandin Cooks will return after missing the last two weeks with a calf injury. It’d be tough to trust the veteran WR, but his presence should pull some defensive attention away from Chris Moore. Moore has more targets (19) than the remaining WRs on the team over the last two weeks. He’s run a route on 63.4% of the team’s dropbacks and is second in red-zone looks. 

Tennessee’s secondary is one to target, as they rank 31st in dropback EPA allowed over the last month due to injuries. But with the potential issues for the Titans’ offense, Moore is a mid-range WR3/flex option if you’re looking to avoid the wind and cold this weekend.

Much respect for Ryan Tannehill for gutting out an aggravation to an ankle injury he’s managed most of the season. But he’s out for Week 16, and Malik Willis retakes command of the offense. His return moves me off of most of the passing options for the Titans.

In his two starts, Willis totaled 26 passing attempts, and the offense averaged 24.3 yards per drive. The Titans had a -28% passing rate over expected, but one player stood out. Chigoziem Okonkwo had a 19.2% target share with Willis under center. The rookie TE has a 28.0% TPRR, and his 19.1% target share throughout Treylon Burks’ absence leads the team. Tight ends are tough to trust each week but “getting Chiggy with it” appears to be a thing. But really, all that matters is how effective Derrick Henry will be with the quarterback change.

Let’s go back to Weeks 8 and 9 when Willis was in charge. The Big Dog averaged two scores per game and crossed the century mark in rushing yards in both contests. He was first in yards after contact per attempt and explosive runs. Now he faces a Houston defense against which he has a productive history.

The last time Henry didn’t have more than 200 yards against the Texans was in Week 15 of the 2019 season. History tells us we’re in for more of the same, and it’s not like the other RBs are coming for Henry’s job. He’s taken 81.7% of the total backfield touches, and all but one red-zone carry over the last three weeks. Henry’s surprising four targets per game should make him a lock for your roster in any format. Let’s just hope the rest of the offense can be as productive.