Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

• Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
• Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
• Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
• Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
• Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. Patrick Mahomes rises to the occasion (again).

The Chiefs haven’t been the juggernaut offense of past seasons, but they have found a way to get it done when it mattered most. By historical standards, yesterday was another subpar day for Mahomes with 241 yards and one passing TD. However, the boxscore doesn’t tell the whole story.

Mahomes was on pace for an impressive passing day with 161 yards and a TD in the first half, with the Chiefs CHOOSING to attack the No. 2 pass EPA defense. While every other QB in the Conference Championships delivered a negative CPOE, Mahomes posted a sterling plus-8%, according to NextGen Stats. 

Kansas City dropped back on 65% of plays in the first two quarters. However, with a 10-point lead and Lamar Jackson only completing 42% of his passes in the first half, the Chiefs only dropped back 53% of plays in the second half.

No offense in the NFL scores more TDs per drive than the 49ers (34%), which could cause the Chiefs to keep the speedometer pegged in the Super Bowl. The Lions did most of their damage on the inside, with Sam LaPorta (32%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (32%) and the running backs (21%) accounting for 85% of the targets. Kansas City’s strengths are also at TE, slot WR and RB.

Outlook: Mahomes looks more like a mid-range QB1 looking ahead to 2024 unless the Chiefs upgrade their receiving corps, but the Super Bowl matchup plays to Kansas City’s strengths, leaving the door open for a vintage Mahomes performance.

You can target Mahomes HIGHERS in the Pick'em contests on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE:

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

2. Christian McCaffrey: Utilization Superman.

McCaffrey dominated the 49ers’ backfield in the regular season but has taken it up another notch in the playoffs. He has accounted for 95% of the snaps and 71% of the rushing attempts while also notching an elite 91% route participation. His 26% target share leads all San Fransisco pass catchers.

Elijah Mitchell stole a carry inside the five-yard line in the championship game (Week 21), but that came when McCaffrey exited the game after awkwardly landing on his head. The 49ers are funneling their offense through CMC despite trailing conditions.

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs with the ball against the Detroit Lions during the second half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco trailed the Packers by four-plus points on 52% of plays in the Divisional Round, leading to a 33% target share for McCaffrey. The all-around back finished the game with 28 opportunities — 16 attempts and 12 targets. CMC exploded for 31.8 fantasy points.

The 49ers trailed by four-plus points on 68% of snaps in the Championship Round versus the Lions, and that doesn’t tell the whole story. San Francisco was down by nine-plus points on 38% of plays. Despite facing the No. 2 rushing defense in the NFL and trailing, Kyle Shanahan stuck with the run, calling his second-heaviest ground game of the season with a minus-9% DBOE.

While it was not an ideal game script for most backs, McCaffrey received 20 attempts and five targets on his way to 29.2 points against the Lions, bringing his postseason average to 26.5 opportunities per game.

The last time we saw an RB with a utilization profile as robust as McCaffrey in the Super Bowl was Jamal Lewis in the 2000-2001 season. Lewis averaged 27 opportunities per game on 25.75 attempts and 1.25 targets per contest.

Outlook: McCaffrey has the strongest Super Bowl RB utilization profile we have seen in 23 years.

3. Isiah Pacheco isn’t sharing in the playoffs.

The Chiefs haven’t shown much interest in rotating backs in the playoffs, with Pacheco notching a 75% snap share. The second-year back has accounted for 76% of the rushing attempts and dominated high-leverage opportunities inside the five-yard line with 100% of the carries.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire poached a few snaps in the two-minute offense in the Championship game, but Pacheco still led the way with 57%. The Chiefs didn’t use their two-minute offense in the Divisional Round, but Pacheco has been the top option in the other two playoff outings.

When you add it all up, you have a back averaging 17.3 fantasy points per contest. Based on the last 12 seasons of data, Pacheco’s comp group averaged 18.6 with an RB5 finish. 

Outlook: Who knows what the Chiefs will do this offseason, but Pacheco has the workload of a mid-range RB1 right now.

4. Travis Kelce has a 30% target share in three playoff games.

Rashee Rice was the top option for Mahomes from Week 14 to Week 17, out-targeting Kelce 26% to 18%. While Rice has remained relevant with a 25% target share in the playoffs, the Hall of Fame TE has surged to a mouthwatering 30%.

Averaging nine targets and 67.3 air yards per game, Kelce has tallied 22.7 fantasy points per game in the playoffs — the most of any pass catcher who played at least twice. The 34-year-old’s performances have been more in line with WR1s than TE1s, which is fitting, with Kelce surpassing Jerry Rice’s record for most career playoff receptions (152) with 156.

His 2.65 YPRR in the playoffs is in the range of what we saw from CeeDee Lamb (2.69) and A.J. Brown (2.59) this year. Assuming he returns, this playoff run has likely kept Kelce in the Round 2 conversation for 2024 drafts as the top TE option.

Outlook: Kelce remains the undisputed No. 1 TE in fantasy football.

Quarterback Utilization Bytes

• Brock Purdy: While Purdy had a decent day passing the football against the Lions, his legs might have saved the 49ers' season. He totaled a whopping 52 yards rushing on three scrambles, with all three extending drives with a first down. Purdy averaged 1.1 scrambles per contest during the regular season, but that number has risen to 2.5 in the playoffs. Purdy remains a mid-range QB1, but his willingness to scramble is something to consider in the prop bet markets for the Super Bowl.

Running Back Utilization Bytes

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: The former first-round pick has averaged 3.3 attempts and 1.3 targets per game in the playoffs. Pacheco has bogarted 100% of the carries inside the five and gets most of the two-minute offense, leaving CEH to try and scratch out value from a low-value role as the primary LDD back. Edwards-Helaire profiles as an RB5.
   
• Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell stole a few carries at the end of the 49ers' comeback win over the Lions, including a scoring plunge from inside the five. However, Mitchell didn’t receive a touch until the game's final three minutes, with McCaffrey sidelined after landing awkwardly on his head. Mitchell looks like the primary No. 2 behind McCaffrey, but this backfield has condensed to almost 100% CMC in the playoffs.

Wide Receiver Utilization Bytes

• Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk led the 49ers with a 33% target share in the first half against the Lions. However, he and Purdy could only connect on one of five targets, leading to changes in the game plan. In the second half, Aiyuk came up with an incredible 51-yard snag that bounced off the defender’s face mask to put San Francisco in scoring position, but Deebo Samuel became the offense's focal point with a 40% target share. Aiyuk remains a big-play WR2 who would be a WR1 on a less crowded offense.
   
• Deebo Samuel: Kyle Shanahan claimed Samuel would play without limitations after a full practice on Friday, and he wasn’t lying. Samuel led the 49ers in route participation (97%) and target share (33%) and handled 10% of the rushing attempts in the biggest game of the season. While Samuel has been the team's top option against zone all year, the team needed him to step up against the man-heavy Lions after Purdy and Aiyuk couldn’t find their rhythm in the first half. The former second-round pick was up to the challenge, delivering six receptions for 68 yards in the final two frames. The 49ers' offense remains overloaded with weapons, making it difficult to predict, but Samuel is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 spike potential.
   
• Jauan Jennings: Jennings returned to his usual role with Samuel back in the lineup. The fourth-year WR registered a 44% route participation and a 7% target share, fifth on the team. Jennings is the only non-star with a stable role in the offense, but finding targets remains challenging — he is a DFS punt play.
   
• Justin Watson: Watson hasn’t been able to come up with any big plays in the playoffs, but his 57% route participation ranks third behind Rashee Rice and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His 6% target share is pretty, pretty gross, but with only one game left to focus on, he gets a blurb this week. Watson might not be able to make many NFL teams, but right now he is the WR3 for the Chiefs, making him a DFS punt play.
   
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: After delivering two critical long catches against the Bills in the Divisional Round, MVS enjoyed his highest route participation of the season at 97% in the Conference Championship game. He was in a route for only 42% and 56% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks in the prior two playoff games. While his 6% target share was a disappointment given his expanded role, the veteran WR has never been a high-end target earner. With Valdes-Scantling, we are hoping for a couple of long receptions and, hopefully, a TD. Those odds improve with more playing time — MVS UPGRADES to boom-bust WR5 territory.
   
• Rashee Rice: While Kelce has blossomed in the playoffs to lead the team with a 30% target share, Rice hasn’t withered. The Round 2 NFL Draft pick has eclipsed 90% route participation in two of three games and likely would have done it in all three if not for an injury against the Bills. The rookie has an impressive 25% target share, averaging 16.3 fantasy points per contest. For the season, his YPRR now ranks 10th at 2.35, and his historical comps tell us he is a low-end WR1.

Tight End Utilization Bytes

• George Kittle: Kittle fell victim to San Francisco’s overcrowded offense against the Lions, with Samuel, Aiyuk and McCaffrey hogging 78% of the targets. Earning targets has been challenging for the stud TE this season when all parties are healthy. On plays with all four stars on the field, Kittle ranks last in target share at 19%. However, his route participation remains strong at 92% in the playoffs, and he can still erupt in any game. Kittle might be the best TE in the game, but no one has stiffer competition for targets, leading to a mid-range TE1 grade.
   
• Noah Gray: Gray and Valdes-Scantling are tied for the third-most targets per game on the Chiefs in the playoffs (2.7). While his route participation of 41% lags behind some of the WRs, his 18% TPRR has propelled him to a 10% target share. Gray has a volatile profile but is in the mix behind Kelce and Rice.