Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.

• Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
• Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
• Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
• Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
• Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

Preseason football can be tricky to decipher, but we now have two weeks of utilization data to go along with a full offseason, including training camp. While we don’t want to overreact, we also don’t want to under-react. Last season we determined Dameon Pierce, David Njoku, and Evan Engram were in for increased roles by analyzing this final piece of intel.

1. Bijan Robinson is worth a Round 1 pick in fantasy.

The eighth pick overall from the 2023 NFL Draft saw his first preseason action in Week 2 and dominated work with the first-team offense.

Robinson bogarted 80% of the rushing attempts and posted a sizzling 60% route participation.

Aug 18, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) pulls down a catch during pregame warmups before their game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

While Arthur Smith understandably gives fantasy managers the heebie-jeebies with some of his puzzling player usage, we have also seen the FedEx kid saddle up one back with all the mail in Tennessee. After being a part-time back in previous seasons, Derrick Henry feasted under Smith, accounting for 74% and 76% of the team’s rushing attempts in 2020 and 2021.

The Falcons can still work Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson into the game plan while getting Bijan to 65% of the attempts and 60% route participation.

Since 2012, RBs that reached those thresholds have averaged 20.8 points per game. That is within reach, and if Bijan goes full Henry, he will finish as the RB1 overall in 2023.

Oh yeah, top-12 NFL draft selections also have a pretty good track record since 2012.

Robinson is a top-10 pick in most fantasy formats, giving some fantasy managers anxiety. That is reasonable when you could take safer options like Stefon Diggs. However, Diggs doesn’t have a 400-point season in his range of outcomes like Robinson, who could break fantasy leagues.

Outlook: High-end RB1 with RB1 overall upside.

2. James Cook is THE STEAL of drafts.

The second-year RB posted elite utilization numbers in three drives with Josh Allen in Week 2.

Damien Harris didn’t play due to injury and will likely carve out a larger role than Murray did in this small sample, BUT this is a reminder that Cook could have a much more significant role than we believe. The Bills did not invest heavily in Harris or Murray and have been searching for a passing game mismatch for years.

The best part is Cook can pay off his current ADP on route participation alone in the Bills’ pass-first offense. I only have him projected for 38% of the rushing attempts with a 50% route participation, which comes to 13.6 points per game. If the former Georgia Bulldog gets to 50% and 65%, that skyrockets to 18.3.

All of these data points have led me and Ian Hartitz to rank Cook ahead of ADP.

Outlook: RB3 floor with RB1 ceiling.

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3. Dameon Pierce is getting LEAD DOG treatment in Houston.

Small sample sizes be damned, the Texans are making it hard not to believe Pierce hasn’t put some distance between his role and Devin Singletary's.

Pierce rested with the starters in Week 1 while Singletary played, and in Week 2, Pierce held a clear advantage over the free-agent addition, hogging 67% of snaps and rushing attempts.

Perhaps the most important data point here is Pierce’s 58% route participation. Historically, 65% is considered rare air, where we only find the best receiving backs in the NFL.

Pierce was a solid passing-down option in college but was stuck with two passing-down specialists in Houston last year with Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale. Singletary has been a subpar passing-down back for most of his career.

Pierce ranked as the No. 1 running back in missed tackles forced rate and No. 9 in yards after contact, and finished as the No. 9 graded PFF runner. The biggest challenge is the potential low-scoring nature of the Texans' offense, which is what makes the passing-downs role so important for trailing game scripts. 

If he can carve out 60% of the passing downs, the talented back offers RB1 upside.

Outlook: RB2 with RB1 upside.

4. Javonte Williams isn’t J.K. Dobbins.

All offseason, we have heard the warning signals around Williams because of the severity of his injury and how it was similar to the one suffered by Dobbins.

However, Williams already returned to practice, and in Week 2, he returned to preseason action.

Russell Wilson played one drive, but the skill players were on the field for two series, and Williams split the backfield almost evenly with Samaje Perine. Perine handled more of the short-yardage work, but Williams was more involved on passing downs and led the way with a 54% route participation.

Yes, this is a small sample, and we don’t know exactly how these two roles will shake out yet, but one thing is clear—Williams could be a factor much sooner than we expected just two months ago.

Perine will likely remain involved no matter what, but it is time to adjust those priors.

Outlook: RB3 that morphs into an RB2 with RB1 upside in the big money weeks for fantasy.

5. Khalil Herbert is the favorite to lead the Bears' backfield.

Herbert garnered 100% of the snaps and delivered a spicy 67% route participation in Week 1 with the starters. Then in Week 2, he rested with Chicago’s starters while D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson played.

Herbert was electric as a runner last season, with 17% of his carries going for 10-plus yards. He also averaged 3.7 yards after contact and a 22% missed tackle-forced rate—both RB1-worthy marks. Yes, it was a small sample of 129 carries, but it is what we have to go on, he looked great in Week 1 of the preseason, and the team is giving him starter treatment.

Justin Fields will likely handle 20 to 25% of the designed rushing looks, and we shouldn’t expect Foreman and Johnson to completely disappear. However, at this point, the Bears are telling us Herbert will get the first shot to lead the way.

The key with Herbert is not to get too carried away pushing him up boards, but as an RB3 pick, he makes a lot of sense, and there is a scenario where he handles 40-50% of the rushing attempts in a run-first offense.

Outlook: RB3 with RB2 upside.

6. Darren Waller might see 1,000 targets in New York.

The Giants' offense got their first action of the preseason in Week 2, and Waller was immediately on display as the centerpiece of the passing attack—matching reports we have heard throughout camp.

Aug 18, 2023; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; The Carolina Panthers vs. the New York Giants in an NFL preseason game at MetLife Stadium. New York Giants Darren Waller before the start of the game. Mandatory Credit: Michael Karas-The Record

The veteran participated in a route on 80% of Daniel Jones’s dropbacks, accounting for 44% of the team’s targets. Obviously, 44% isn’t realistic, but Waller registered 140 and 115 targets in his last two healthy campaigns in 2019 and 2020.

He comes with some risks at the age of 31, but his high-end target-earning ability makes him a prime candidate for a top-three fantasy finish if healthy. The Giants’ offense doesn’t boast another big-time target generator, and that is a perfect environment for a player like Waller to go bonkers.

Outlook: TE No. 4 with TE No. 2 upside. Kelce>Andrews>Waller/Hockenson.

7. Sam LaPorta is the UNDISPUTED No. 1 TE in Detroit.

LaPorta enjoyed a 75% route participation in three drives with the starters in Week 1 and received the night off with the starting unit in Week 2. These two data points align with everything we have heard from beat reporters since minicamp.

The Lions fell in love with LaPorta in the draft process, taking him ahead of Michael Mayer, who many draft pundits had graded as the top prospect in the class. With early Round 2 draft capital in his back pocket and a weak TE depth chart, it is safe to say LaPorta has a shot at 80% route participation as a rookie.

While rookie TEs haven’t been good for fantasy historically, it has more to do with playing time than target-earning ability.

The last two rookie TEs to reach 75% route participation: Evan Engram (TE4) and Kyle Pitts (TE11).

Outlook: Low-end TE1.

8. Speaking of Kyle Pitts… here we go again!?!?

I really don’t want to overreact here because Pitts is an elite-level talent, AND he is coming off of a knee injury. However, his limited route participation in Week 2 of the preseason must be addressed because Arthur Smith held him under 70% in four of nine healthy contests last season.

Leaving the field for Khadarel Hodge in 11 personnel and giving way to MyCole Pruitt in 21 personnel can’t be something we see carry into the regular season? 

Right? Right? RIGHT!?!?!?

Only 17% of TEs to finish between 50% and 70% route participation have delivered a top-six season since 2012.

Let’s hope this is about limiting reps on his way back from injury, but it’s enough to move Pitts below WRs like Jahan Dotson and George Pickens, who are locked into starting roles and offer upside.

Outlook: Boom-bust mid-range TE1.

9. Jonathan Mingo is a great upside target later in drafts.

The rookie second-round pick played over Terrace Marshall in Week 1 of the preseason, and with Marshall out (back) in Week 2, he delivered a 100% route participation with the starters.

We don’t want to get carried away with Mingo’s target share numbers on a small sample, but 40% is encouraging because he wasn’t a high-end target earner in college. Ultimately, Mingo didn’t grade out well in our Rookie Super Model—he was a boom-bust prospect. However, his upside comp was fellow Ole Miss product DK Metcalf.

Mingo is a big-play threat that is strong after contact and meshes well with Bryce Young’s strengths, and if the Panthers' offense pops off in 2023, Mingo is likely the straw that stirs the drink. Where Mingo goes in drafts, it is hard to find many other upside candidates, making him a name we want to prioritize. If he flops early in the season, we can move on and monitor him on the wire.

Outlook: Boom-bust WR5/6.

10. It’s time to take note of Sam Howell.

Howell delivered 188 yards, two passing TDs, and three rushing attempts for 17 yards in a half of play against the Ravens in Week 2.

Yes, it was against a vanilla preseason defense where Howell had a clear advantage with the Commanders playing their top receiving options. So we don’t want to go overboard here, but Howell has performed well each step of the way so far, back to his game against Dallas in 2022.

Aug 21, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) scrambles against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Most QBs drafted in the fifth round of the NFL draft don’t go on to great success, meaning the Commanders’ signal-caller could easily bust this year. Still, it is hard to ignore the unique blend of positives we get with Howell.

He is surrounded by good weapons and he is willing to run. That makes him a potential arbitrage play on Daniel Jones. In redraft leagues, an argument can be made for taking a swing on a player like Howell over names like Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford if you miss out on the top-tier QBs.

Outlook: Mid-range QB2 with QB1 upside.

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11. Marvin Mims and Greg Dulcich are battling for routes.

Mims didn’t play in Week 1 but took his place as the No. 3 WR in Week 2 behind Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.

The rookie WR registered a 69% route participation with 100% of his routes coming from 11 personnel.

Mims was an early breakout at Oklahoma, specializing in big plays down the field—especially on deep crossers and go routes. He was a strong performer in the Rookie Super Model, making him a name that could challenge for more playing time as the season progresses. He offers speed that the Broncos are lacking.

However, Sean Payton is known for mixing up personnel packages, and the trend continues based on early data points in Denver. It looks like the Broncos will use some combination of 11, 12, and 21 personnel. Jeudy and Sutton are the primary candidates in two-WR sets (12 and 21).

Additionally, 12 personnel is how Payton gets Greg Dulcich onto the field. Unfortunately, that formula led to a 50% route participation in Week 1 and 62% in Week 2. Adam Trautman is stealing snaps in 11 personnel as a pass blocker and as a run blocker in 21 groupings. Unless Dulcich improves as a blocker or Payton gains additional confidence in the offensive line, this could be a big problem for the Year 2 TE.

Outlook:

• Mims is an upside WR5/6 that will take some patience. 
• Dulcich moves down into the boom-bust TE2 range.
• Neither can be trusted in Week 1 lineups.

12. Jaylen Warren looks great, but Najee Harris is still the man (for now).

Warren was the more explosive back in Pittsburgh in 2022, and those traits showed up again in Week 2 of the preseason on a 62-yard house call.

While Warren might eventually challenge for more playing time, the Steelers have Round 1 draft capital tied up in Harris, and the coaching staff continues to call Najee the undisputed RB1.

The Week 2 utilization also matched up with those sentiments, with Harris dominating 71% of the snaps and 67% of rushing attempts.

Warren remains one of the best handcuffs in fantasy, but this is looking more and more like an Ezekiel Elliott vs. Tony Pollard scenario where patience is required.

Outlook:

• Harris: RB1 utilization with RB2 output.
• Warren: RB5 with RB1 upside if Harris goes down.

13. The Packers are going to feature their rookie pass catchers.

Green Bay doesn’t have a strong TE room, and Luke Musgrave is taking advantage of the situation, delivering an 89% route participation in Week 2 with the starters.

Musgrave wasn’t a high-end target earner in college like LaPorta, so he didn’t score as well in our Rookie Super Model. However, His 12.5 average depth of target (aDOT) was elite, and the Packers plan to feature him in mismatches against linebackers and safeties off of play action.

There is a chance Musgrave comes through with a top-12 fantasy finish on big plays if he stays above 80% route participation. If things get wild at the TE position in a draft, I would rather take a shot on Musgrave than other known commodities. If we are wrong, we can move on quickly and grab another option off of the wire.

Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave (88) is brought down by New England Patriots defenders during their preseason football game Saturday, August 19, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.

Jayden Reed is the starting slot WR (67% participation in Week 2) and could carve out more work as the season progresses. Romeo Doubs is having a great preseason and is clearly ahead for now, but Reed has a stronger collegiate profile and wasn’t limited to slot work at Michigan State.

Unlike many of his rookie counterparts, drafters are still allowing Reed to slip down draft boards into the later Rounds.

Outlook:

• Musgrave: Upside TE2.
• Reed: Upside WR5/6.

14. The Texans’ passing attack is coming into focus.

Houston played their starters in the first two weeks of the preseason, and Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and Dalton Schultz are all in line for significant playing time.

In Week 2, Tank Dell didn’t play due to pregame tightness, and John Metchie could not take advantage of the opportunity, playing behind Noah Brown.

Outlook:

• Collins is a WR3 with WR2 upside thanks to his ascending talent profile.
• Schultz is a low-end TE1.
• Dell is an upside WR6 that could require patience.
• Woods is a floor WR6 that might produce early in the season.
• Metchie is undraftable now.

15. Michael Wilson is the No. 2 WR in Arizona.

Wilson played with the starters in Week 1, but Marquise Brown was out, leaving some doubt if that would continue with Brown available. In Week 2, that question was answered when Wilson played across from Brown in the first two drives with the starters, collecting an 89% route participation.

While Rondale Moore was mostly limited to 11 personnel snaps (three WRs), Wilson remained on the field 86% of snaps in two-WR sets.

Wilson was not a strong target earner in college and performed poorly in our WR Super Model. However, the Cardinals like him and he is earning playing time, which gives him a chance to surprise—especially in best ball, where he should eventually run into a spike game.

Outlook: Late-round stash in deep leagues.

16. Allen Robinson is going to play a lot.

Robinson registered a 100% route participation in both preseason games with the starters, and in week two he led the team with 50% of the targets.

Hanging our hat on preseason target shares isn’t the way to go, BUT it is worth noting because Robinson could surprise. We have seen multiple aging WRs move to the slot over the years and experience a resurgence in fantasy production. Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald are recent examples.

The Steelers' offense is looking suddenly crowded, but health is a fragile thing in the NFL and an injury to any of these weapons or a big step forward by Kenny Pickett could unlock meaningful production from Robinson.

Outlook: Last-round dart in deep leagues.

Quick Hits

• Jalin Hyatt: Registered a 30% route participation with the Giants starters. He might start slow, but Hyatt has the deep speed no other Giant offers and could expand his role.
• Tank Bigsby: Bigsby dominated touches with Travis Etienne resting, proving he is the clear-cut No. 2 to own in Jacksonville.
• De’Von Achane: Achane worked behind Myles Gaskin in Week 1 and Salvon Ahmed in Week 2. The team is likely getting a look at Gaskin and Ahmed with the starters as they will be forced to face a tough cut decision. Achane should be the RB3 with a shot to work his way up once healthy from his shoulder injury.
• D’Onta Foreman vs. Roschon Johnson: Foreman worked ahead of Johnson for the second consecutive week, dominating the first two drives. Foreman didn’t leave the field on passing downs, playing 100% of long-down-distance snaps. He registered an 83% route participation. Johnson played the third drive after P.J. Walker left the game. The narrative around Johnson as the passing-down back is fizzling.
• Colts RB Pecking Order: Deon Jackson entered the game first. He was followed by Evan Hull and then Kenyan Drake. Zack Moss was out with an arm injury. Moss was the lead option last year when Jonathan Taylor was out late in the season.
• DeVante Parker: Registered 100% route participation with the starters and appears locked into a lot of routes if healthy.
• Justice Hill: Played ahead of Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon in Week 1. Played ahead of Gordon in Week 2 with Edwards out. There is a chance Hill is the RB2 in Baltimore.
• Chris Evans: Working ahead of Chase Brown, but Trayveon Williams was out. Evans is a good receiver and played all of the two-minute offense snaps in Week 2. He could have the inside track on passing downs.
• Keaontay Ingram: Rested with the starters in Week 1 and entered the game after James Conner in Week 2. He looks like the clear No. 2 in Arizona.
• Cowboys TEs: Jake Ferguson played three drives with Cooper Rush and collected a 62% route participation. However, Peyton Hendershot was also involved at 46%.
• Durham Smythe: The Dolphins TE rested in Week 1 with the starters and posted a 100% route participation in Week 2 with Tua Tagovailoa in the game. Smythe is a sneaky last-round TE dart with Tua stacks.
• Braxton Berrios: Passed Cedrick Wilson Jr. – who is on the trade block – for the starting slot role. Miami will run plenty of heavy personnel, but when they get three WRs on the field, Berrios will play.
• Jets TEs: Tyler Conklin had 63% and 56% route participation over the first two drives in Weeks 1 and 2. C.J. Uzomah is rotating often. Last season Conklin was dependent on trailing scripts. He is still a fine late-round TE option but could struggle to see the routes necessary to be more than a late-round flyer.
• Commanders TEs: Cole Turner has played well with Howell, and Logan Thomas hasn't been on the field due to a calf strain. Turner has a shot to force more of a rotation this season and potentially even leapfrog the veteran TE.