Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

Both of these teams enter Week 3 at 1-1, and they fit similar profiles. They’ve played excellent defense through the first two weeks but have gotten minimal contributions from their offense.

Let’s start with the Titans.

Ryan Tannehill was absolutely dreadful in Week 1 vs. the Saints, completing less than 50% of his passes for 198 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. That said, the Saints appear to have an excellent defense, so that performance is somewhat excusable.

Tannehill looked significantly better in Week 2 vs. the Chargers. He completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards and a score, good for an average of 11.08 adjusted yards per attempt. He added a rushing touchdown and ultimately led the Titans to an outright win as home underdogs.

The bigger concern for Tennessee has been the lack of a ground game. Derrick Henry has been kept pretty much in check through the first two weeks. He’s managed just 143 yards on 40 attempts, resulting in an average of 3.58 yards per carry.

It continues an alarming trend for Henry in terms of decreased efficiency.

He was one of the best running backs in football from 2018 through 2020, averaging 5.2 yards per carry on one of the largest workloads in football. His efficiency dipped to just 4.4 yards per carry over the previous two seasons, and while that’s still palatable, it’s not what we’ve come to expect from King Henry.

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) takes the field before an NFL divisional playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 22, 2022, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. Cincinnati Bengals defeated Tennessee Titans 19-16. Cincinnati Bengals At Tennessee Titans Divisional Playoff 67

If he’s taken another step backward in efficiency, it would leave the Titans without one of their biggest weapons from previous years. I’m not sure that Tannehill and the passing game can pick up the slack, despite the strong showing vs. the Chargers.

The Titans’ offense is going to have their hands full with the Browns’ defense. They rank second in points and yards per game to start the year, and they’ve allowed just one offensive touchdown.

The Browns’ offense allowed two defensive scores to the Steelers in Week 2, and their lone blemish came on a long touchdown from George Pickens. They’ve been particularly strong against the pass, allowing the third-fewest yards per attempt.

The Titans’ defense also has done a good job of keeping their opponents off the scoreboard. They held Derek Carr and the Saints to 16 points in Week 1, while the Chargers’ explosive offense managed just 24 points in Week 2.

That said, their defense has been more “bend but don’t break” than dominant. They’re merely 20th in yards per game allowed, and they’re 28th in passing yards allowed. In terms of efficiency, only three teams have allowed more passing yards per attempt than Tennessee.

That makes this a potential breakout spot for Deshaun Watson.

Watson has been dreadful to start the year, averaging just 4.9 adjusted yards per attempt. He’s 30th among starting quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite, eclipsing only Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. That’s not the kind of play you expect from a quarterback with a fully guaranteed, $230M contract.

It remains to be seen if Watson will ever return to the level that earned him that contract to begin with. In his final year with the Texans, he was one of the best players in the league. He led all passers with 4,823 yards, and he racked up 33 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions.

This is ultimately a make-or-break week for Watson. If he can’t find success in this matchup, it might be time to abandon ship.

The Titans have been much more stout against the run than the pass, and the Browns lost Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury in Week 2.

That’s a horrible break for the Browns, but Jerome Ford provided some optimism on Monday. He was extremely impressive in Chubb’s stead, tallying 142 rushing yards while adding three catches, 25 receiving yards, and a touchdown.

Sep 18, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) carries the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Pittsburgh won 26-22. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Ford is going to be a priority waiver add in fantasy leagues this week – he might be a 100% FAAB type of player – but expectations should be tempered vs. the Titans. They rank second in yards per carry allowed and sixth in stuff rate through the first two weeks.

The Browns are down to three-point home favorites in this matchup after opening at -4.5 on the lookahead line. Given how anemic their offense looked vs. the Steelers, that’s not a huge surprise.

The Titans also have an outstanding track record as underdogs under head coach Mike Vrabel. They’re already 2-0 ATS as underdogs this season, and they’re 25-15-1 ATS in that situation overall.

The Titans are on track to be a public dog in this spot, receiving 78% of the early bets in this matchup (via the Action Network).

Personally, I think the Titans have been a little lucky so far this season, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

The disparity between their points and yards per game allowed is pretty wide, and if a few of the field goals they’ve allowed turn into touchdowns, I’m not sure if their offense can make up the difference.

I lean towards the Browns, but I think it’s worth waiting to see if this number gets below three.