Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This showdown between 3-5 teams has some intriguing potential as both squads look to bounce back from close losses in Week 9.

The Titans fell to the Steelers 20-16 on Thursday Night Football, while the Buccaneers came up two points short against the Texans in the most exciting game of last Sunday.

Tennessee announced they will be sticking with Will Levis at QB for the rest of the season after he averaged 250 passing yards per game in his first two starts.

Both offenses rank slightly above average in EPA per play, while both defenses rank in the bottom 10. Despite this apparent offensive advantage, this contest only has a 38-point game total, the second-lowest of Week 10.

With Levis under center, the Titans have averaged 37.5 dropbacks per game vs just 30.7 when Ryan Tannehill was at QB. 

The change at signal-caller has been a boon for DeAndre Hopkins, who has finished as the WR2 and WR22 in PPR scoring with Levis starting. He only had one finish better than WR22 in his first six games this season.

The Tennessee backfield continues to be split between Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears. The rookie has earned a larger share of the snaps over the course of this season and hit a season-high 60% snap share in Week 9. He also continues to be heavily involved in the passing game and has earned 10 total targets in the two games Levis started.

The Buccaneers defense has been much better at defending the run than the pass, which gives Hopkins a massive ceiling again this week. It also makes me like Spears and Chig Okonkwo as sneak plays in DFS contests this week. 

When Tampa Bay has the ball, they will likely have to move the ball through the air, as they have been one of the least efficient rushing offenses in the NFL this season. The Titans have also been better at defending the run than the pass (27th in dropback EPA allowed), which could push this into the kind of contest where both teams lean on the passing game. 

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can both deliver big performances in that type of game environment. Both players are top-24 WRs in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks for Week 10. 

Rachaad White and Cade Otton have also been heavily involved in the passing game in recent weeks. Otton has had at least 6 targets in each of his past three games, while White has totaled 17 targets in that stretch as well.

From a betting perspective, I’m a bit surprised by how low the game total for this one is, but since both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in plays per game, there is a chance this game is just too slow-paced to end up as a high scoring affair.