Titans @ Colts Week 5 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 5 matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Titans @ Colts Week 5 Game Preview
On the surface, this matchup looks boring.
We’ve got a few marquee names, but the offenses don’t scream fantasy value. There is one WR with a top-12 finish so far this season in this game. Both rushing attacks have taken time (or the right matchup) to come online. But when I squint, I see some hidden gems.
Well, to be fair, DeAndre Hopkins isn’t that much of a sleeper. But you get the idea.
Let’s start with Tennessee. The Titans are 25th in early-down passing rate in neutral situations. And for good reason. Ryan Tannehill (16) is behind only Sam Howell and Daniel Jones in sacks taken. However, luckily, for our purposes, if Tannehill lets it fly, we know who’s the intended target.
Hopkins leads the team in targets with a 29% share. He has 31 looks from Tannehill on the season. No other pass-catcher (not WR, pass-catcher) has more than 20. Treylon Burks has missed a game (still wasn’t practicing on Wednesday), but the others don’t have the same excuse. Regardless, Nuk has taken over another passing game and has a shot to make it into the Top 12 finally. Look at the previous WRs to face the Colts secondary:
- Week 4: Puka Nacua, 10-163-1
- Week 3: Zay Flowers, 10-48-0
- Week 2: Nico Collins, 9-146-1
- Week 1: Calvin Ridley, 11-101-1
Indianapolis ranks 27th in pressure rate, but their pass rush has been able to get to the QB (fifth-most sacks). Tannehill is a viable spot-start option for those impacted by the bye, but Hopkins carries the best (read: only) ceiling out of the aerial attack. And with the Colts having the seventh-best front in terms of run stop win rate, Tannehill may have to take to the air if Derrick Henry doesn’t find the same success on the ground he had in Week 4.
Sep 17, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) draws back to pass Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, during a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports
Meanwhile, I’m just ready to see Anthony Richardson do more cool stuff. He’s been a QB1 in both games he’s started and finished.
And the lone top-12 receiver I mentioned earlier? Michael Pittman. In Week 1. With Richardson under center.
Plus, targeting the Titans’ secondary has generally been the way to move the ball down the field. Only hobbled Joe Burrow was unable to record a passing score against Tennessee. Derek Carr and Justin Herbert topped the 300-yard mark in Weeks 1 and 2.
While we’re not relying on the Colts’ receiving options (outside of Pittman), downfield threats like Rashid Shaheed (6-89-1) and Mike Williams (13-83-0) were able to contribute to their QB’s production. Alec Pierce (second in air yard share) has the most downfield targets, and Kylen Granson has the ninth-most red-zone looks amongst all TEs. Both, along with Pittman, could give us enough to boost Richardson’s passing production.
Because it’s not like we can expect much from the running game.
Tennessee hasn’t given up 100 total rushing yards to a team this season. And they’re one of five teams that have allowed just one TD from an opposing rusher. Zack Moss’ 75.0% rushing share may get him into low-end RB2 production on volume alone. But we’ll need the rest of the offense to get him close to the box. He’s taken all of the green-zone attempts and also has an 8.2% target share. In PPR leagues, Moss has an RB30 rank from our crew. With the amount of work he’s seeing, it may be hard to find better options in Week 5.