Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

The longer the season goes, the more realistic the Dolphins' chances of making a deep postseason run become.

Most of the other AFC contenders have major question marks. The Chiefs’ offense is the worst it's ever been under Patrick Mahomes. The Jaguars are dealing with a high ankle sprain to Trevor Lawrence. And as it stands, the Bills have an uphill battle to even make it to the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Miami continues to roll.

The Dolphins' dynamic offense leads the league in virtually every metric. They rank first in points per game, second in yards per game, and second in EPA per play. And although Miami hasn't been quite as good as their blistering start to the season, ranking "only" 10th in EPA per play since Week 7, this is still a really, really good offense.

Their offensive firepower was on full display last week in a comfortable 30-point rout over the Commanders.

Dec 3, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs with the ball en route to a touchdown as Washington Commanders safety Jartavius Martin (20) chases during the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Miami's defense has also come together over the second half of the season. They’ve now allowed 296 yards or fewer in five straight games, albeit some were against subpar offenses. Still, the Dolphins are now up to sixth-fewest yards allowed per game through 13 weeks, and they currently lead the NFL in yardage differential. If the defense can continue to play at this high of a level, Miami very well could be the best team in the AFC.

They're expected to roll once again in Week 14 as 13-point favorites at home on Monday night. The Dolphins have a 7-1 ATS record and have covered by an average of 11.06 points per game when favored in 2023.

That said, the only game they failed to cover was their biggest spread of the year, 14.0 points at home against the Raiders in Week 11. Still, Miami thoroughly dominated that contest, outgaining the Raiders by more than 125 yards, but they were done in by an uncharacteristic three turnovers.

On the other side, the Titans are at the outset of a rebuild. They handed the reigns to rookie QB Will Levis in Week 8, and they’re just 2-4 since he took over. Their two wins have also come against bad Falcons and Panthers teams. This Monday Night Football matchup at Miami is going to be Levis's toughest test to date, so it’s not surprising that Tennessee is a massive underdog.

Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo (54) disrupts Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) as he sets to throw during their game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023. Photo Credit: Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Levis has been up-and-down as a rookie, but he’s exceeded expectations overall. He’s averaged 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt with seven TDs to only two INTs. That doesn’t necessarily put him in the same weight class as C.J. Stroud, but Levis has outshone Bryce Young.

The biggest red flag with Levis is his consistency, or lack thereof. He’s completed less than 60% of his passes, and the rookie has just a 35.8% success rate. In other words, Levis has been great at generating big plays at times, but he’s struggled to consistently move the chains.

Derrick Henry left last week’s contest with a possible concussion, but he appears to be ready to go for this Monday night game. He’s not currently in the concussion protocol and is expected to play, which is good news for the Titans.

The Dolphins have been far stronger against the pass than the run this season, ranking sixth in dropback EPA allowed but just 27th against the run. As long as Henry is in the lineup, expect to see a heavy dose of the Big Dog.

And though Miami has crushed as a favorite this season, Mike Vrabel has a long track record of covering the spread as an underdog (27-21-1 ATS). However, the Titans are just 4-6 ATS as underdogs thus far in 2023, and they’re just 2-3 as underdogs of more than a TD under Vrabel.

I’m not going to overthink this one. The Dolphins should be able to throw all over a weak Titans pass defense that ranks 29th in dropback success rate allowed. An early Miami lead would likely force Tennessee into a pass-heavy game script in the second half, and it’s hard to imagine Levis finding enough success to carry a comeback in a potential shootout.

If you like the Dolphins, make sure to grab them now before this line potentially goes up to 14.0 across the industry.