Titans at Eagles (-5.5) – 44.5 total

Two of the top teams in their respective conferences face off in what profiles as a classic football match. Both teams are in the league's bottom half in pass rate over expected. The game may be over in 60 minutes of real-time. But Tennessee’s offense, while effective, hasn’t been as run-centric as most expected. 

Derrick Henry popped up on the injury report with a foot injury before Week 9. He’s yet to miss a game but has averaged 65% of the snaps over the last month. Plus, we’ve seen more of Dontrell Hilliard in key situations. After watching AJ Dillon rumble through their front, the Eagles still have work to do on defense. But if Henry isn’t the key to the Titans’ success, at least Ryan Tannehill has options to work with downfield.

Treylon Burks and Robert Woods are earning targets at a similar rate since the rookie returned from injury. But Burks is doing more with his looks. His 2.56 YPRR ranks 11th among all receivers (min. 15 targets) over the three week stretch. The Eagles aren’t the secondary to test, but the Packers worked their nickel corner with Christian Watson to the tune of 110 yards and a score. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is their primary inside man, but Burks has been equally efficient and can take advantage of the weaker defensive attention.

After a dominant rushing performance, Jalen Hurts may have to rely on his passing skills to keep the Eagles offense airborne. The Titans have given up two rushing touchdowns all seasons to running backs, and Saquon Barkley is the only single-game 100-yard rusher they’ve faced. But even if Tennessee takes away Philadelphia’s primary strength, it’s not like Hurts can’t create explosives downfield.

Tennessee’s pass-funnel defense plays right into the A.J. Brown revenge-game narrative. He’s been the team’s target and air yards leader on the season, but we’ve seen a switch over the last two weeks. 

DeVonta Smith has out-targeted Brown 17 to 13 without Dallas Goedert in the lineup. It’s a two-game sample, and Brown was working through an illness last week, but Smith’s been a reliable target despite the low volume. The sophomore’s air yard share is up to 54.9% in his previous two contests and would be a possible spot start as the Eagles have a 25-point team total.