Titans at Jaguars

I can believe we’re at this point. Tennessee was last year’s No. 1 seed and they’ve taken other playoff-bound teams (Giants, Chiefs, and Bengals) to the brink throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had all the hype coming into the season and a second-year leap for Trevor Lawrence was an underlying requirement for fans. So again, I can see how we got to this point. But the outlook for each team has shifted over the last few weeks.

Joshua Dobbs will be under center for the Titans. We saw his debut last week, which came with mixed results. The offense, playing without Derrick Henry, averaged 24.8 yards per drive. It’s still worse than the Texans (25.3), but an improvement on Malik Willis’s average of 22.7 even with Henry active the week before. Regardless, the offense was more fantasy-friendly.

Tennessee’s PROE climbed from -24% in Week 16 to -9% on Thursday night. The added volume gave us our first Treylon Burks highlight video in a while and a passing touchdown to Robert Woods. Dobbs could at least follow the offensive game plan and target Dallas’ weak links on defense for big gains, giving him a leg up on Willis. As a result, his competency gives the Titans a fighting chance against Jacksonville’s secondary.

The Jaguars have been lucky to face Houston and the Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler Jets over the last two weeks. Otherwise, we wouldn’t know they had issues. After those games, they’re second in dropback success rate. However, if you zoom out to their last six games, they fall to 16th. 

CeeDee Lamb (7-126-0) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (12-114-2) torched them in their matchups. It lifts the floor of Woods and Austin Hooper, who led the team in slot targets. But we all know who everyone’s watching in this game.

Henry is off the injury report and ready to help punch the Titans’ ticket into the playoffs. His return relegates Hassan Haskins to our dynasty benches, as Henry’s been the engine of the Titans’ offense in previous matchups. In his last six games against Jacksonville, he’s averaged 135.3 yards and 1.8 touchdowns. With the Jaguars ranking 17th in rushing success rate allowed and meeting the league average in explosive runs allowed over the last month (11), Henry would be the force driving the Titans into the postseason.

For Jacksonville’s offense, it’s simple: let Lawrence do his thing. Since Week 14, he’s fourth in EPA per play. And, despite playing in a rainstorm throughout most of Week 16, he’s fifth in adjusted completion percentage over the same span. Tennessee might be getting back two key defenders to help with their pass rush, but I’m not as concerned.

Lawrence’s innate pocket-management skills are already at a pro level. He’s taken three sacks on 51 pressures across his last four games. For context, Russell Wilson has hit the dirt 13 more times than Lawrence but pressured just one fewer time. With the sophomore passer’s ability to avoid the rush, we could see the passing game back in Week 18.

Keenan Allen (9-86-0) and Lamb (14-100-0) had their way against the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17. As a result, the matchup lends itself to Christian Kirk, who has the highest target rate from the slot, and Evan Engram, with his team-leading 2.43 YPRR from the interior. But let’s not forget about Zay Jones. The popular fantasy option for a few weeks has been Lawrence’s most-trusted receiver when under pressure. So while Kirk and Engram will garner the high-percentage looks, Jones will be on the end of the explosive attempts downfield.