Betting Overview

• Projected Total: 41.5
• Spread: Saints -3.5

Game Analysis

We’re back, baby!

The 2023 season is about to get underway, and the Fantasy Life crew couldn’t be more excited to break down all the action. But typically, a matchup between the Saints and Titans wouldn’t warrant much attention.

However, with some new faces on both squads, their Week 1 bout offers intriguing storylines for us to monitor.

For Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill will be back under center to command the offense for a fifth season. But it’s hard to label his upcoming campaign. You could call it his farewell tour. Tannehill will be a free agent at the end of the football year, and the Titans have taken QBs in the last two drafts.

However, you could call it a redemption tour, too. Injuries knocked him out of two games in ’22, and Tennessee fell to 28th in EPA per play. But the Titans aren’t looking to make a repeat of last year’s abysmal runout.

DeAndre Hopkins joins the crew to bolster their aerial attack. While we can’t usually look at the previous season’s defensive trends for analysis, the Saints are returning seven starters/rotational defenders. It’s almost the same unit that allowed five 100-yard games to opposing WR1s.

Coincidentally, Hopkins riddled the Saints defense with a 14-103-0 stat line in Week 7. But he didn’t just do it from the perimeter.

Hopkins worked the interior on 35.7% of his targets with 2.15 yards per route run. With Treylon Burks still on the mend, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine may have some value in deeper fantasy formats. But Chig Okonkwo’s projection might be the easier sell to fantasy managers. 

Everyone’s favorite “sleeper” TE of the offseason ran 35.6% of his routes from the slot over the final six weeks of ’23. New Orleans only gave up three TE1 performances, but if Okonkwo’s route participation comes up from his rookie season, he’ll have top-12 potential starting in Week 1. However, Derrick Henry might be the one rumbling into the paint instead.

Dec 11, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) is tackled by Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (23) during the fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints ended 2022 ranked 21st in rushing success rate allowed but had the 11th-lowest explosive run rate against. In short, they gave up more singles and doubles than home runs.

Luckily, Tennessee had the fifth-highest rushing rate on early downs, giving Henry multiple shots at breaking through the first level. And with the Titans' defense losing key starters in the offseason, the Saints may be a tougher opponent than expected with fresh faces on the offense.

Derek Carr will take over as the new signal caller in the bayou. While Carr doesn’t carry much fantasy appeal (QB19 ADP), his surroundings make him viable for spot starts. And Week 1 against the Titans is one of those spots.

I mentioned the Saints’ rank in explosive run rate allowed earlier, but Tennessee was fifth in the same metric. They were also first in rushing EPA. It’s reasonable to expect them to take a step back without guys like Bud Dupree or David Long in the lineup, but their secondary has even more problems.

The Titans tied for allowing the most top-12 finishes to WRs last season (13). Eleven different receivers (including two from the same team in the same game) reached the century mark going up against Tennessee’s corners. Four had multi-touchdown games. With those numbers in mind, let’s look at Carr’s passing options.

Chris Olave checks in as New Orleans’ WR1. As a rookie, the former Buckeye had the third-highest air-yard share of any receiver. He tied Justin Jefferson in targets per route run (0.28). But his competition for looks took a step forward this season.

Michael Thomas is back and looking healthy through training camp. At his peak in 2019, the other former Buckeye was first in everything from target share to efficiency. The duo will be tough for anyone, but we have a Carr conundrum to consider.

The Saints were bottom 12 in pass rate over expected (PROE) and red-zone PROE. Obviously, we like their primary receivers, and Juwan Johnson has come along as a pass-catching TE. But high-value touches may be at a premium.

So, outside of the receivers, there’s only one other player with top-24 potential in this matchup.

First swag KazeKage, leader of the hidden village in the den.

Jamaal Williams will lead the Saints’ backfield as Alvin Kamara serves his three-game suspension. And while we can’t expect a three-digit yardage total for Williams, he can pick up where he left off in Detroit: scoring touchdowns.

Last year’s touchdown king cracked 100 yards twice. But gyrating into the end zone 17 times was a surefire way to catapult himself into a fringe top-12 spot. With Olave and Thomas doing most of the dirty work, there’s an easy path to Williams winding up in the end zone in Week 1.