The Utilization Report. Fantasy Takeaways Ahead of Week 4.

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume, it is a great way to understand who is over-performing (sell high) and underperforming (buy low).

Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
Quarterbacks: How involved is each QB in the running game, and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short yardage, and passing downs
Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route run (TPRR) thresholds
Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense

1. De’Von Achane has the talent, but will the workload be there?

In Achane’s first true NFL action, he delivered an astounding 51 fantasy points on 233 total yards and four TDs. While the 188-pound third-round NFL draft pick will almost certainly remain in a rotation without multiple injuries to teammates, his upside in this offense is undeniable.

The Dolphins lead the NFL with a whopping 47% of their drives ending with a TD. That is 16 percentage points ahead of the second-place Chargers. On the surface, this sort of dominance doesn’t seem sustainable, but Miami isn’t your typical offense. Their team speed and scheme continuously put opposing defenses in no-win situations.

Achane is right at home in this environment. He delivered a 75th-percentile explosive rush rate, with 20% of his carries going for 10 yards or more at Texas A&M. The Shanahan coaching tree has had a longtime infatuation with this RB archetype (i.e., Clinton Portis, Tatum Bell, Elijah Mitchell) that can hit the long ball on any play.

How Mike McDaniel will ultimately divide up this backfield moving forward is uncertain, but the first data point was solid. Achane led the team in rushing attempts.

The Dolphins rested many starters in the fourth quarter when Chris Brooks saw most of his action. Over the first three quarters, Achane played 46% of snaps and led the team with 52% of rushing attempts. Mostert was the primary option in the passing game, but Achane was heavily integrated into the game plan with a 36% targets per route run (TPRR).

Salvon Ahmed was inactive for Week 3, and while it’s true that might have opened the door for Achane, the rookie garnered a far more significant workload than Ahmed did in his two chances as the No. 2. Ahmed’s best game was 16% of the rushing attempts.

Of course, the Dolphins backfield isn’t even at full strength right now. Jeff Wilson is eligible to return from the PUP in Week 5.

These factors could create doubt in the minds of some of your league mates. However, the same thing played out in 2017 with Alvin Kamara. Many couldn’t see past Kamara playing behind Mark Ingram (Mostert) and Adrian Peterson (Ahmed/Wilson) remaining in the picture early in the season.

What many fantasy managers didn’t envision was talent winning out and Kamara finishing as the RB3 overall without reaching 30% of the team’s rushing attempts. The Saints released Peterson in Week 4 that season and consolidated their attack down to two backs. While the Dolphins won’t likely release Wilson, his role could be minimal.

Achane is available in 59% of Yahoo! leagues, so many of you will be forced to make a decision on how to approach this situation. For that, we need to consider the range of outcomes.

Realistic Floor: Three-way backfield

30% rushing attempts
25% route participation
8 to 10 fantasy points per game (PPG) with significant spike games
Low-end to mid-range RB3

Realistic Median: Two-way backfield

45% rushing attempts
35% route participation
11 to 13 PPG with significant spike weeks
High-end RB3 to low-end RB2

Realistic Ceiling: Lead in a two-way backfield

55% rushing attempts
50% route participation
14 to 16 PPG with eruption weeks
Mid-range RB2 to low-end RB1

From an expected workload standpoint, Achane doesn’t grade out as well as Jerome Ford from last week, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t approach the waiver wire aggressively.

Two weeks ago, we didn’t expect Kyren Williams to find himself as the No. 1 in L.A. suddenly, but here we are. Things can change quickly, and we want to buy into players with big-play ability on high-scoring offenses.

FAAB Recommendation: 65%+

Outlook: Achane is a low-end RB2 with RB1 upside that can dramatically swing matchups in your favor when he hits.

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2. Tank Dell is the second-best rookie WR in the NFL.

In a class loaded with first-round NFL draft picks like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston, it has been the non-first-rounders to make fantasy headlines through three weeks. Dell’s 17 PPG ranks second behind only Puka Nacua (26).

Dell's role has improved since Noah Brown went on IR after Week 1. The third-round NFL draft pick trailed only Robert Woods in route participation in the last two contests and led the team in targets in both weeks.

If we isolate two games where Dell was in a full-time role, he averages a mouthwatering 22.5 points.

Dell was a dominating target earner in college, reaching a 32% target share or better in his last three seasons. While transitioning from an offense like the Houston Cougars to the NFL isn’t always easy, Dell demonstrated he wasn’t a gimmick player in college. Only 15% of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage and only 11% came off of motion.

The NFL is evolving as smaller skill position players like Achane, Dell and Tutu Atwell are blowing up fantasy box scores. So, don’t be discouraged by Dell’s size (5-foot-8 and 165 pounds) when considering his prospects for the rest of 2023.

The Texans have posted a positive dropback over expectation (DBOE) in the first three contests. Houston is letting C.J. Stroud play, and the rookie ranks fifth in passing yards per game with 302.

Robert Woods and Nico Collins will continue to challenge for targets, but Dell looks like one of the top two options on the team. Dell ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per route run (2.61), and Collins ranks 20th (2.52) — the Texans have the makings of an excellent young WR duo.

When you add it all up, we have a talented young player in a strong role in a fruitful offensive environment. That makes him a HIGH PRIORITY in this week’s waiver wire run.

Recommended FAAB: 50%+

Outlook: Dell is locked into the upside WR3 conversation and will push into the WR2 range with another strong performance in Week 4.

3. Jerome Ford needs more work to sustain his Top 12 standing.

Ford was the waiver wire darling of Week 2 and came through 19 fantasy points while leading the team with a 55% snap share on Sunday against the Titans. However, the Browns split their rushing attempts across three backs and involved Elijah Moore and Deshaun Watson.

This split wasn’t the result of a big lead late in the game. Ford handled 27% of the attempts and registered a 50% route participation in the first half. It is only one data point, so we don’t want to panic, but Ford might be a SELL HIGH candidate.

So far, over half of his production has come through his five receptions for 58 yards and two TDs. Unfortunately, he wasn’t a high-end target earner in college, and his 14% TPRR is well below historical RB3 thresholds. He is a strong candidate for regression as a receiver.

On the ground, Ford ranks fourth in yards after contact (4.12) and 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt (22%), but only 4.9% of his attempts have gone for 10-plus yards, which ranks 31 out of 41 backs with at least 20 totes. He was the primary short-down-and-distance (SDD) option in Week 3, so he might not need the big plays to score, but he is walking a fine line.

Outlook: Ford’s strengths are in the run game, where he needs more volume to sustain his current RB1 pace — he is due for regression in the passing attack. He is a mid-range RB2.

4. Adam Thielen isn’t done yet.

The 33-year-old WR delivered his two lowest TPRR marks of his career over the last two seasons, with 21% and 20%. However, this preseason he dominated targets in snaps, with the starters leaving the door open for a hot start.

Battling through an ankle injury in Week 1, the veteran could not get anything going. But over the last two games, he scored 18 and 32 points. His 29% and 25% target shares led the Panthers, and he rarely leaves the field on passing downs.

Playing from the slot on 75% of his routes has put the wind back into Thielen’s sails. Historically, we have seen aging target earners revive their careers playing inside and winning mismatches against linebackers and safeties in zone coverage. Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne and Anquan Boldin all delivered WR1 or WR2 finishes at 33 and older.

The Panthers’ plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) have been in plus territory every week and their DBOE is at +7% and +14% over the last two contests. Despite the challenges Bryce Young’s return to the lineup (Andy Dalton started Week 3) might cause, this isn’t a terrible environment for racking up catches and PPR points.

Thielen is available in 53% of Yahoo! leagues. With the QB questions and more injury risk due to age, he comes in under Dell in the recommended FAAB. However, there are runouts where a healthy Thielen outperforms Dell.

FAAB Recommendation: 20 to 30%

Outlook: Thielen UPGRADES to high-end WR3 status and moves into the WR2 conversation if Young can improve.

5. Sam LaPorta is a top-six TE the rest of the way.

The rookie TE was a high-end target earner in college, and that is translating to the NFL. Without solid depth chart options to overcome on the Lions' offense, LaPorta is the eighth-ranked TE in route participation (79%) and is fourth in TPRR (26%).

Since 2011, we have seen 28 instances where a TE topped 75% route participation and a 22% TPRR. They all finished inside the top 12 and the average finish was the TE4.

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) makes a catch for a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023.

The second-round NFL draft pick is in rare air, leading the NFL with a YPRR of 2.24. When we triangulate all of these data points, we get some amazing comps:

Travis Kelce
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
George Kittle
Mark Andrews
Zach Ertz
Greg Olsen
Delanie Walker

We are still dealing with a small sample, but early signs indicate LaPorta is an absolute stud. Only T.J. Hockenson has more targets through three games, and the rookie is off to a historic start.

If you have him in dynasty, congratulations. If you don’t, you should consider making a trade offer because more big games are likely coming soon.

Outlook: LaPorta is locked into the top six TEs and is worthy of a BUY HIGH recommendation.

6. Breece Hall’s role is growing.

The Jets offense isn’t an ideal habitat for cultivating fantasy points. Let’s just get that part out of the way. However, Hall flashed ELITE upside as a rookie, and if the team wants to get things back on track, it likely comes through the ground game and playing defense.

Hall’s share of the snaps, rushing attempts and route participation have increased every week.

Hall also saw an increase in short-down-and-distance (SDD) work, garnering 50% of the opportunities, but Michael Carter continues to dominate the obvious passing situations (LDD and 2MIN).

Not having the passing-down role in an offense that could trail often isn’t ideal, but we could see Hall’s utilization expand in that department the same way it has in the run game. Now isn’t a bad time to consider BUYING LOW on Hall.

Outlook: Hall is a boom-bust RB3, but if this trend continues, he will push for RB2 status and possibly more in the coming weeks.

7. Opportunity knocks for Quentin Johnston.

Mike Williams is out for the season with an ACL injury, and the Chargers invested a first-round pick in Johnston this past April in the NFL Draft. Those two events should open the door for a dramatic increase in playing time. However, Joshua Palmer has worked ahead of Johnston all season, and after the Williams injury, he played 100% of passing downs while the rookie was limited to 25%.

Still, even if Johnston must work behind Palmer early on, there is much room for additional playing time. The Chargers' primary personnel package is three-WR sets, with 62% of snaps coming from 11 personnel.

Whether Johnston can force his way into the No. 2 role or encourage the Chargers to increase their utilization of three-WR sets is up to him. He must perform.

While he hasn’t been able to lock down a steady role yet, his 21% TPRR is third on the team behind Allen and Williams. Palmer was not a high-end target earner in college and hasn’t flashed over his first two seasons. Last year, he stepped in for Allen and Williams for significant periods but could only finish the season with a 15% TPRR and a 1.20 YPRR.

The veteran will likely get the nod in playing time early, but with a few big plays, Johnston could quickly move up the depth chart. If and when that happens, Johnston will move quickly into WR2 with upside territory thanks to the pass-happy nature of the Chargers offense.

Johnston is available in 68% of Yahoo! leagues and Palmer in 96%.

Johnston FAAB Recommendation: 15 to 25%

Palmer FAAB Recommendation: 5 to 10%

Outlook: Johnston is a boom-bust WR4 in the short term but has WR2 upside if he can overtake the veteran in two-WR sets.

8. Josh Downs had his best game of the season.

Downs delivered 14 fantasy points on the back of a 27% target share in Week 3 against the Ravens. The Colts have opted to utilize more three-WR sets this season under Shane Steichen, a departure from their old ways under Frank Reich, where heavy TE groupings were the norm.

Indianapolis ranks first in the NFL in plays per minute at 2.49. No team leaves more time on the play clock in neutral situations than the Colts. This is an offense that wants to play fast.

This unique combination of events allows Downs to run enough routes to find fantasy relevance. Alec Pierce hasn’t shown any target-earning prowess, and the team needs a No. 2 behind Michael Pittman to step up.

Downs is available in 98% of Yahoo! leagues.

FAAB Recommendation: 3 to 5%

Outlook: Downs is a WR5 that offers WR3 upside if he can click with Anthony Richardson like he did with Gardner Minshew in Week 3.

9. The Broncos need to get Marvin Mims on the field

Mims only saw the field on 28% of the Broncos passing plays in Week 3 against the Dolphins. However, he finished first in air yards (33%) and delivered a 15% target share, thanks to a whopping 45% TPRR.

For the season, Mims ranks first on the team in TPRR (33%) and PFF receiving grade (83.2) but continues to play behind Brandon Johnson. Johnson’s 13% TPRR and 60.4 grade are by far the worst on the team.

It is hard to say what is going on with Mims’ usage, but when he is on the field, he is doing what he did at the University of Oklahoma — pushing the vertical boundary and delivering big plays. Ultimately, we don’t know if Sean Payton will make a change, but the second-round NFL Draft pick has the talent to capitalize quickly if/when the move happens.

Mims is available in 73% of Yahoo! leagues.