Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears 

These two teams come in sitting at 1-4 in the standings and with their seasons hanging in the balance. Both sides have arguably been a little better than their record suggests, but they have done a great job at shooting themselves in the foot to date as well. 

Let’s start with Minnesota. The Vikings lead the league in red zone turnovers with 12 and rank just 20th in red zone scoring efficiency. They got beat 27-20 last week by the Chiefs, allowing Patrick Mahomes to complete 75% of his passes and Travis Kelce to grab 10 receptions and a TD. 

The Vikings haven’t played all that poorly, but their defense simply is not good enough (19th in overall defensive DVOA) to keep them in games when their offense is sputtering in the most important part of the field. This week they were dealt an even bigger blow after losing Justin Jefferson (hamstring) to IR for at least four weeks. 

The Bears' defense allowed 388 yards passing last week to Sam Howell but could be getting some players back in the secondary in the form of S Eddie Jackson and CB Jaylon Johnson.

Just to pile on here from a Vikings perspective, this game is also slated to be played in Chicago with cold weather, potential rain, and winds of 15mph or worse. Given the Vikings are a pass-first team (70.45% pass rate—highest in NFL) it certainly doesn’t favor them from a matchup perspective. 

The Vikings should try to lean on the run game this week, an area that has shown improvement of late. Minnesota is only 29th in rush yards per game but has averaged 4.4 yards per rush—11th best in the NFL. After Alexander Mattison (8-26) again averaged under 3.5 yards per rush against the Chiefs, it may finally be time the Vikings move to give Cam Akers (10-55 yards in two games with the Vikings) more work. 

Justin Fields enters this game cooking. While we can cite poor defenses as a reason for his turnaround, he is now 13/26 for 332 yards, with 6 TDs and 0 INTs on throws of 20+ yards—and ranks out 4th highest on PFF grading on deep throws. The wind could certainly affect how DJ Moore and Fields operate in this game, but remember that Moore is still one of the league's best in accumulating yards after the catch (225 YAC—2nd most in league). The Bears looking for more screens or potentially even sweeps to get Moore involved wouldn’t be overly shocking. 

Oct 5, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) attempts a pass against the Washington Commanders during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago does have one area of concern from an injury perspective. Both starting RBs in Khalil Herbert (knee) and Roschon Johnson (concussion) look slated to miss this game. It’s not ideal, especially as Herbert has played extremely well over the past two games, but they do have D’Onta Foreman, whom they signed to a $2M contract this offseason. Foreman stepped into a starting role with Carolina last year and averaged 4.5 YPC, so they may not lose much in terms of efficiency in that regard.  

You don’t want to get lost in the euphoria of Justin Fields’s recent surge, but this game does set up for potential continuation from the Bears. Their secondary will likely be healthier, and they will be dealing with a Vikings pass attack that will now be relying on rookie Jordan Addison as their primary receiving option. 

The weather has caused this total to crater to 45.5 as of writing, at which point it’s likely better to take a wait-and-see approach since it opened at 48.5. The spread has also moved toward the Bears from +3.0 to +2.5. Getting three points is significant, but as the game moves closer to kick-off you could easily see the public pile in on the Vikings outdoor narrative and push the Bears to favorites. 

The Bears are by no means trustworthy, but with all that is going on in Minnesota, feel like the right side this week. They make for a solid early-week target with the line moving in their favor and unlikely to dip back toward the Vikings.