Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

We’ve got three Saturday contests this week, starting with the Vikings at the Bengals at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Both of these teams were pretty much left for dead after having lost their starting QBs for the season, but both are surprisingly still alive for a playoff spot at 7-6.

Let’s start with Cincinnati. They’re one of six squads tied for the final two Wild Card spots in the highly competitive AFC. The Bengals are still a bit of a long shot to make the postseason – 25% chance per The New York Times and 13% per The Athletic – but they’ve won back-to-back games now with Jake Browning.

With Joe Burrow out, Browning has looked the part of an NFL QB. He’s averaged 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt with five TD passes to just two INTs, and he’s added two rushing scores as well. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 11, Browning ranks second among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite behind only MVP frontrunner Brock Purdy.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning (6) throws under pressure from Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Myles Murphy (99) in the fourth quarter during a Week 14 NFL game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

What Browning has been doing isn’t exactly revolutionary, but he’s been getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers and letting them do their thing. Among 52 QBs with at least 38 pass attempts this season, Browning ranks 51st in average intended air yards per attempt. But while he's averaged only 3.7 air yards on his completions, his receivers have gotten an average of 7.3 yards after the catch on his passes.

That kind of strategy can sometimes be enough to keep the offense moving when you have players like Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown at your disposal. Chase is obviously one of the top WRs in football, but Brown has been a welcome addition to the Bengals' group of playmakers, as the rookie RB recorded the second-fast ball carrier speed of the entire season last Sunday.

I’m not sure if defenses will eventually adjust to Browning and start stacking the box and forcing him to beat them downfield, but thus far, he's excelled on intermediate throws.

Only 29.4% of Browning's pass attempts have gone more than 9.0 yards past the line of scrimmage, but he owns a 91.4 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade on throws of 10 to 19 yards downfield. In fact, Browning has completed 20 of his 24 attempts in that range, good for an average of 14.0 yards per attempt.

As for the Vikings, they too were saved by an unlikely hero earlier this season after Joshua Dobbs replaced the injured Kirk Cousins. The “Passtronaut” didn’t even know his teammates’ names when he was thrust into relief duty, but he led Minnesota to back-to-back wins in his first two starts as a Viking nonetheless.

Unfortunately, Dobbs has since come crashing back down to reality. After those two wins, he lost back-to-back games to the Broncos and Bears before getting benched against the Raiders last week. Nick Mullens ended up leading the team on their lone scoring drive late in the fourth quarter last week and has been named the starter for this game against the Bengals on Saturday.

Dec 10, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens (12) makes a pass attempt against the Las Vegas Raiders during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Mullens is a QB we’ve seen before. He’s started 17 games in his NFL career and has gone 5-12 straight up and 6-11 ATS. And while he's averaged a respectable 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt, Mullens has struggled mightily with turnovers. He’s thrown 23 INTs in his few games played with a 3.4% INT rate overall.

It also won't help that Mullens may not have Justin Jefferson at his disposal this week. Jefferson returned from a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury in Week 14 only to exit the game with another chest/rib injury. His status for this Saturday is still up in the air, but the fact that this game is a day earlier than usual won’t help matters.

The line movement on this game has been interesting. The Vikings were listed as roughly one-point favorites on the lookahead line, but they then reopened as four-point underdogs on Sunday night. Since then, the number has bounced between 4.0 and 3.5 with the sharp action siding with the Vikings. Minnesota has received just 46% of the early spread bets, but they’ve accounted for 81% of the dollars per the Action Network.

If that kind of betting activity continues, it wouldn't be a shock if this line were to close at 3.0 points prior to kickoff. If you like the Vikings here, it's probably best to grab them ASAP.