Vikings at Broncos

The Broncos are coming off a big win on Monday Night Football. Denver downed the Bills in Buffalo 24-22, thanks in large part to a defense that stifled Josh Allen (three turnovers), holding him to under 200 yards, a 57% completion rate, and an uncharacteristically poor 6.8 yards per attempt. 

Denver’s turnaround has been somewhat dramatic as they have now held the last three QBs they have faced (Love, Mahomes, Allen) to under 250 yards and grabbed five INTs over that stretch. Vance Joseph’s secondary is progressing toward being one of the more elite units in the league with one of the best corners anchoring it in Patrick Surtain. 

Surtain may have a battle on his hands this week, however, as the Vikings are heading toward activating WR Justin Jefferson off IR. We’ll know later in the week if they do activate Jefferson, but certainly this matchup isn’t as poor as it once was for the Broncos—who held another all-world receiver in Stefon Diggs to just 3-34 last week. 

The Broncos' rush defense remains a concern, especially after they allowed the Bills to march down the field last week without passing the ball late in the game to take the lead. They’re still last in yards per rush attempt against (5.6) but face a Vikings offense that can’t run the ball (27th in yards per rush). 

Making matters worse for the Vikings is that Alexander Mattison is in concussion protocol and remains a long shot to play. Ty Chandler would feature as the main back if Mattison sits, but he profiles more as a passing specialist and only managed 3.0 yards per carry on 15 attempts last week. 

Offensively for the Broncos, expect them to continue to be somewhat conservative in their play calling and to base their attack around the services of Javonte Williams. Williams took 25+ touches for the second game in a row last week. While he managed just 3.76 yards per carry, he converted some crucial first downs for Denver and was also explosive in the pass game. Denver has been great at dialing up screens for Williams, who has hurt the last two opponents he’s faced as much through the air (receiving TDs in two straight games) as on the ground. 

The Vikings have been solid against the run this year but did allow Alvin Kamara to average 4.6 yards per carry in the win against New Orleans. 

Both quarterbacks in this game also deserve some praise. The Vikings' Joshua Dobbs (268-1, 8-44) completed 67% of his passes last week against a stout secondary and essentially acted as the de facto running back for the Vikings at times. He’ll need to replicate the feat this week as the Broncos' defense has been tough to pass against of late.

Nov 13, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) throws a pass in the second quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Russell Wilson (193-2, 9-30) had a mistake-free game against Buffalo and made some key plays down the stretch with his legs and arm as well. The Vikings have now collected six INTs of their own over the last four games and come in ranked 11th in sacks. They’ll need to get pressure again this week, as allowing Wilson to sit in the pocket will either lead to him moving the chains with his legs or connecting with one of his big-bodied receivers downfield. 

The play-callers in this game have remarkably similar games. Dobbs and Wilson can both hurt you with their legs but won’t win you any shootouts. That could make points hard to come by, and currently, the 43.5 total for this SNF game feels a little inflated. Overs made a comeback last week, but these teams are a combined 12-7 at hitting unders in 2023. 

As for the spread, I’d side with Denver but would wait until the Jefferson news is announced to consider betting them. If he’s in, the spread could move from its current 2.5 slot toward the Vikings and make this game close to a pick’em.