Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

It’s been a tough (busy) week for the Vikings.

They lost Kirk Cousins (Achilles) for the season late in their win against Green Bay, a win that also got them back to .500 and back into the playoff race.

The issue now is that Minnesota isn’t really in a position to be a seller at the deadline and that was reflected on Tuesday when they traded for Joshua Dobbs. 

Dobbs gives Minnesota a fighting chance to potentially scratch their way into a wildcard spot, but he’s not Cousins – and he’s also very unlikely to be ready to suit up for this week’s game. That means, that in all likelihood, we’ll see rookie Jaren Hall make his first NFL start.

Some notes on Hall: He’s a fifth-round rookie with decent mobility but isn’t overly huge for a rushing QB (6’0 and 205 lbs). He’s shown limited upside as a passer thus far going 26 for 48 (54%) for 257 yards, (one TD, one INT) in preseason. 

It’s not a pretty picture for Minnesota, which remains a pass-heavy team (67% – second highest in the NFL) and one of the worst rushing offenses in the league to boot (3.6 yards per carry – 28th).

The Falcons beefed up their defensive line this summer and are 8th in yards per carry against this season. Expect them to happily load the box, spy Hall out of the backfield and force him to beat them with his arm.

Oct 15, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison (3) is unable to make the catch on a long pass in the first half while being defended by Chicago Bears defensive back Tyrique Stevenson (29) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

This is a disaster-case scenario if you were relying on Jordan Addison or KJ Osborn for production. TJ Hockenson (6-88-1) has been terrific since Justin Jefferson went to IR and will likely get plenty of looks from the rookie, but the downfield receivers are in a world of trouble and will be hard to rely on for fantasy. 

The one positive for Minnesota, Atlanta has QB issues of their own.

Desmond Ridder got benched last week (under the veil of a potential concussion) after he committed another fumble – the fourth fumble he’s committed in two weeks and his 7th turnover in two-and-a-half games. Arthur Smith hasn’t committed to Ridder as a starter yet but the Falcons showed far more potency on offense under Taylor Heinicke (175-1, 2-14). 

Heinicke is an ideal game manager for the Falcons who want to run the ball and use their TEs and RBs in the screen game as much as possible. It would be a net positive for Falcons bettors if they announced him as the starter this week, although with Hall starting this is a spot where Atlanta should prevail, regardless. 

From a utilization perspective, Bijan Robinson (11-62-1) didn’t catch a single pass against Tennessee but maintained a 70% route rate. The result was likely an outlier and buying low on his receiving props may be worthwhile against a Vikings defense that likes to blitz and ceded 9 receptions to Green Bay’s RBs last week. 

If you’re looking to bet on Atlanta, I’d likely recommend waiting at this point. The line opened at -3.5 ATL after the Cousins injury, but has been bet up as high as -5.0.

It now sits at -4.5 ATL but could move down dramatically if we get word that Dobbs may see action. It’s unlikely (given the very short turnaround and prep time) but not out of the question. 

There is a lot to digest for this matchup and Atlanta would become a stronger bet (in my eyes at least) if Heinicke were announced as the starter. I’ve already bet them at -3.5 in the bet tracker but wouldn’t recommend taking them above that number unless we got positive news on the QB front (Ridder benched, Dobbs not playing).