Vikings at Lions (-2.5) – 53 total

If I were to tell you this game was a divisional rematch with one team having ten wins and the other having a losing record, your eyes would glaze over. 

An in-division rematch? Low scoring. 

One squad with a lock on the playoffs? One-sided affair. 

But this game has a 2.5-point spread. And the team with seven losses is averaging 28.2 points per game over their last six matches. Plus, the matchup will feature two top-6 fantasy receivers. Interested now? OK, cool. Let’s dig into the Vikings first after their wild win on Sunday.

Minnesota got the W in Week 13, but I remain unconvinced they were the better team. The Jets averaged 41.7 yards per drive to Minnesota’s paltry 27.2. They even started in New York’s territory on two drives and only came away with a field goal. Kirk Cousins got caught patting the ball an extra beat a couple of times on Sunday, but luckily, he shouldn’t have the same problem on Sunday.

The Lions are dead last in pass rush win rate. They’re similarly weak on the backend, with their coverage ranked 30th in dropback EPA allowed. The metrics sound great, and they are! But the on-field results are even more encouraging.

Over their last six games, the only two quarterbacks without a top-12 finish against Detroit are Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence. Prescott was in his first game back from injury in Week 7. Lawrence tried to scare us this past week. You don’t need me to tell you to start Justin Jefferson or Dalvin Cook. I mean, if you do, please have them in your starting lineup (unless you’re facing me). But T.J. Hockenson should also be on your radar.

“Revenge game” narrative aside, the Lions are 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Evan Engram converted his wind sprints into a touchdown for the second time last week. Cole Kmet (7-74-2) had a TE1 day back in Week 10 and the Packers’ tight ends combined for 89 yards on nine targets. We should expect a highly efficient offense from the Vikings. But the Lions can, and have, shown similar productivity levels over the last month.

I’m a vibes guy, so I was in on the preseason “Restore the Roar” hype. And overall, I’d say the offense has restored it. Jared Goff deserves some of the credit. However, there’s still some fragility to his game.

In Weeks 4-7, Goff’s -1.56 EPA per dropback under pressure was the worst mark of any passer in the league. Zach Wilson, Carson Wentz, and Bailey Zappe worked the pocket better under duress. But I chose this three-game sample for a reason. He didn’t have (the Sun) God on his side.

In games where Amon-Ra St. Brown has been healthy, Goff is third in EPA per attempt amongst all quarterbacks. Detroit’s 35.6 yards per drive with their QB-WR duo rivals the Eagles (37.1) and Bengals (37.0). Garrett Wilson earned 66 of his 162 yards from the slot in Week 13, and New England’s receiving group cracked the century mark from the interior against Minnesota on Thanksgiving. St. Brown is eighth in target share across all WRs. We know Goff is looking his way early and often. But passing opportunity is shifting back towards another pass catcher, too.

D'Andre Swift played his highest snap share since Week 8 and led Detroit’s backfield in touches (18) for the first time all season. Only St. Brown has had a higher target share over the last two weeks. And most importantly, Swift finally overtook Jamaal Williams in carries from inside the 10-yard line on Sunday. Zonovan Knight posted the fourth-highest EPA per rush of any RB against Minnesota last week. Tony Pollard smoked them through the air a few weeks ago. Swift’s dual-threat ability is becoming a larger factor in the offense just in time for the fantasy playoffs.