Vikings at Packers

It did not feel like this game would be all that important a few weeks ago, but it matters very much for both teams now.

The Vikings have been pulling rabbits out of their hat all year, and they escaped with another improbable victory last week versus the Giants. Just one week after engineering the largest comeback in NFL history, the Vikings managed to win a game at the buzzer with a 61-yard field goal. The team moves to an astounding 11-0 in one-score games this season, which is a new NFL record. If they can grab another one-score win or two over the final few weeks, this record may approach the same level of invincibility as Joe DiMaggio’s hitting streak.

However, all of the Vikings’ big issues persist. The team is terrible on defense, and they surrendered 445 total yards to a very unimposing Giants offense last week. The Vikings’ offense is good, but they’re not exactly the Chiefs. They rank just 12th in yards per game, and when combined with their leaky defense, the Vikings rank 28th in yardage differential.

As improbable as it may seem, the Vikings are still in contention for the top spot in the NFC. They would need the Eagles to lose out, but those chances seem far greater now that Jalen Hurts is dealing with a shoulder injury. They have just a 2% chance of clinching the No. 1 seed, but it is still possible.

Meanwhile, the Packers have emerged like The Undertaker after being left for dead. A string of seven losses in an eight game stretch put them behind the 8-ball, but the team has now rattled off three straight wins. They currently have a 27% chance of making the postseason, but if they can win their final two games, that figure increases to 88%. In other words, the Packers don’t exactly control their own destiny, but this team will likely make the playoffs if they win out.

Anyone who has been following my writing at Fantasy Life knows that I am not a believer in the Vikings, but for the first time in months, I think they’re the correct side. As inflated as their record is, the Packers might be even more overvalued at the moment.

They’ve opened up as 3.5-point home favorites against the Vikings, which suggests that they’re the superior team. It’s hard for me to get behind that assessment. The Packers recent wins have come against the Bears, Rams, and Dolphins, so they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row from a competition standpoint.

Additionally, the pressure in this contest is solely on their shoulders. They know that a loss all but eliminates them from the playoff race, while the Vikings have already locked up their spot.

Teams that “need to win” are overvalued by the public. Most teams are trying to win and playing hard all the time, so there’s no extra gear that they can turn things up to. If anything, the added pressure of “needing to win” often leads to these teams underperforming. Historically, teams with a winning percentage between 40 and 60% – aka teams who need to win to make the postseason – have posted a record of 126-163-9 against the spread when favored in Week 15 or later.

That trend has already paid huge dividends this season, with “need a win” teams going just 2-6 against the spread last week. The Chargers and Steelers were the only teams to cover in that scenario, while the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Browns, Lions, Titans, and Jets all failed. Don’t be surprised if this trend continues to rear its head down the stretch.