Minnesota Vikings @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Vikings have been an absolute rollercoaster ride this season. They were a rollercoaster last season as well, but they haven’t been able to duplicate last year’s results. Minnesota won 11 one-score games in 2022, which set an NFL record, but regression has hit them hard in 2023.

They opened this season with three straight losses before proceeding to rattle off six wins in their next seven games. That put the Vikings at 6-4, but they then lost back-to-back games against the Broncos and Bears. Minnesota is currently still holding on to the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff picture, but they're far from a lock to make the postseason.

Of course, the big story has been Joshua Dobbs. He was brought in to replace Kirk Cousins following his season-ending Achilles injury.

Dobbs, “the Passtronaut”, was outstanding in his first three starts as a Viking. He averaged 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) with four passing TDs in those games, and Dobbs added another 131 yards and three TDs on the ground.

Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) passes against the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

However, he came crashing back down to reality in his last game against the Bears. Dobbs threw four INTs in that game, and Minnesota managed just 242 total yards on offense. Although Chicago's defense has become sneakily good in recent weeks, Dobbs still played poorly overall in that loss.

So, the question is: which version of Dobbs will we get on Sunday?

Judging by his track record, expectations shouldn’t be too high. Dobbs is just 2-11 straight up in his career as a starter, and he’s averaged only 6.0 AY/A. He’s spent time on the rosters of the Steelers, Jaguars, Lions, Titans, and Cardinals, and none of them thought he was good enough to be a part of their long-term vision.

Still, that’s not the fairest assessment of Dobbs. Most of those teams were not good when Dobbs was on their roster, so it’s not a huge shock that he struggled when given the rare opportunity to play. The 2023 Vikings are easily the best roster he’s ever been on, and Dobbs is taking full advantage.

Overall, I don’t know if Dobbs is good enough to be a long-term starter in Minnesota or in the NFL, but he’s better than his career numbers might suggest.

Dobbs should get some help this week, though, with the much-anticipated return of Justin Jefferson. The best WR in football has been out since Week 5 with a hamstring injury, but he’s averaged 8.3 catches and 135.8 yards through his four full games played in 2023 and has three TDs. Getting Jefferson back in the lineup will be a huge boost for Dobbs and the entire Vikings offense.

Oct 1, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a touchdown pass as Carolina Panthers cornerback D'Shawn Jamison (29) defends in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Raiders are also coming off a bye in Week 13, and they’re a franchise in disarray. They moved on from Derek Carr this past offseason, and Las Vegas also recently fired head coach Josh McDaniels after a 3-5 start to the year.

Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach, and he immediately benched Jimmy Garoppolo for fourth-round rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders were able to win their first two games with the Pierce-O’Connell pairing, but those wins came against the lowly Jets and Giants.

Las Vegas then proceeded to lose their next two contests against good Dolphins and Chiefs squads, and O’Connell has struggled overall. The rookie QB has averaged just 5.96 AY/A on the year, and he currently ranks 41st among 49 QBs with at least 50 plays in EPA + CPOE composite.

The sharps have shown a clear interest in the Vikings to start the week, having already driven this number up from Vikings -1.0 to -3.0. Now that it’s at the key number of three, it remains to be seen if the pros will continue to target Minnesota. Ultimately, I think it’s either the Vikings or a pass for this game.