Week 10 Waiver Wire Report. Take a Flyer on Keaton Mitchell.

Heading into Sunday, the Week 9 slate felt like a DFS lineup: full of studs and duds. From the Chiefs and Dolphins kicking things off in the morning to the Bills-Bengals nightcap, there was at least one marquee matchup on all day. But outside of those games, it was slim pickings with six backup QBs set to take the field.

But, like always, the league didn’t disappoint.

C.J. Stroud threw his way into history, while Josh Dobbs turned a nightmare scenario for the Vikings into an all-time performance. Accordingly, we should have more confidence in rostering players from these teams with bleak outlooks just a few days ago. So, as always, I went through Sunday’s data to find the top waiver adds to help prepare for Week 10.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

Injury Round-Up

Packers
- Christian Watson (chest/back)
Colts
- Josh Downs (knee)
Chargers
- Josh Palmer (knee)
Vikings
- Jaren Hall (head)
- Cam Akers (Achilles)
- K.J. Osborn (head)

Waiver Claims

The List

Tank Dell
Keaton Mitchell
Odell Beckham
Khalil Shakir
Baker Mayfield

Stash: Ty Chandler

QB

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers

The pain from Baker Mayfield’s knee contusion may be getting better. Since Week 7, his play-action rate had been on a three-week decline (30.0% down to 8.3%), along with his air yards per attempt (12.0 to 7.3). But against the Texans on Sunday, both were back up. He was even more involved as a runner, with his highest designed rushing rate since Week 4 (5.6%). And against the Titans, he’ll need all the mobility he can muster.

Tennessee ranks seventh in pass-rush win rate and 15th in pressure rate. Luckily, Mayfield ranks ninth out of all QBs in passing success rate when under duress with the 10th-most passing yards. In a pinch, Mayfield sticks out as a potential streaming candidate for Week 10.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%

Josh Dobbs, Vikings

Doesn’t know the plays. Doesn’t know his teammate’s names. Doesn’t matter.

Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) throws a pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings finished Week 9 ranking in the top 12 in average yards per drive with Josh Dobbs under center. HC Kevin O’Connell made Dobbs’ surprise entry as simple as possible for the former Cardinal. Dobbs operated out of play-action on 25.0% of his dropbacks and kept the ball in the short area of the field (6.6 air yards per attempt). However, he used his legs on seven attempts (two designed runs) with an endzone plunge to tie up the game.

The Saints have allowed multiple touchdowns in three of their last four games. And QBs with some wiggle have been able to complement their passing stats with rushing (Trevor Lawrence – 59 yards, Tyson Bagent – 70). It’s a thinner play with K.J. Osborn likely out, but Dobbs deserves some consideration as a deep streamer.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 3%

Taylor Heinicke, Falcons

Taylor Heinicke’s first start went about as expected. Schematically, nothing changed about Atlanta’s offense.

PROE: -9.0% (Weeks 1-7), -7.0% (Week 9)
Play-Action Rate: 25.9%, 23.8%
Designed Run Rate: 5.5%, 2.4%

However, the results slightly skew in Heinicke’s favor. The Falcons’ backup notched a 41.0% passing success rate, a mark Desmond Ridder had exceeded only three times this season. Plus, with Heinicke, Atlanta hit a season-high 26 offensive points scored with a 55.6% third-down conversion rate. And this happened without Drake London and more confusing usage for Bijan Robinson.

With a simpler matchup against the Cardinals on tap (29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed), he’s a deeper-league add off the waiver wire.

RB

Keaton Mitchell, Ravens

Let’s get something important out of the way first. If Gus Edwards’ nickname is ‘Gus Bus,’ we need one for Keaton Mitchell - something to showcase the kid’s speed.

Keaton Beacon (like the lights on an emergency vehicle)? Keaton Jeepin? I’ll keep working on it.

Regardless, some fantasy managers will see Mitchell’s 60-yard scamper and notice two things: the score and the QB. Almost half of Mitchell’s yards came on one play, while the Ravens were up nearly four scores with their backup QB on the field.

However, Mitchell took on 23.5% of the early-down carries in the first half. He even converted on his single short-yardage tote. The rest was icing on the cake. But there are two fair concerns if you’re going to go after Mitchell on the wire: his situation and peripheral usage.

Even in a game where the Ravens blew out the Seahawks, Mitchell still had the fewest touches (10) of the Baltimore RBs. We could wish cast and believe that Justice Hill causing another fumble at the mesh point will result in more snaps for Mitchell, but we won’t know before next Sunday. Plus, Mitchell only ran three routes. Still, it’s best to lean into the uncertainty before Mitchell’s workload shifts.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%

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Stash: Ty Chandler, Vikings

HC Kevin O’Connell indicated Cam Akers suffered an Achilles injury on Sunday. The MRI is usually a formality, and unfortunately, Akers has been in this situation before. With his likely departure from the lineup, Ty Chandler re-enters the conversation. Minnesota shifted to a run-first approach in Week 9 with a -3.4% PROE (it was +5% in Weeks 1-8), giving the entire backfield more volume. Chandler earned 18.0% of the RB touches before Akers took a snap. If you can add him for cheap, let’s see how the Vikings’ offense looks after Dobbs actually practices with the team.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 2%

WR

Tank Dell, Texans

Let’s run through Tank Dell’s recent history real quick. He suffered a concussion in Week 5, missed the following week, and the Texans were off in Week 7. It’s understandable if fantasy managers looked elsewhere after three weeks of nothing and a 16-yard outing in Week 8.

Oct 29, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) runs for yardage against the Carolina Panthers during the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

However, his Week 8 target share did spark some hope. And we saw all of his metrics bounce back on Sunday.

Target Share: 16.7% (Week 8), 28.9% (Week 9)
TPRR: 16.0%, 28.2%
Air Yard Share: 11.7%, 53.4%

I mean, if a wide receiver can hoard over half of their team’s air yards, we should roster them. That’s definitely the case if they play with a high-end QB. Dell has both working in his favor, along with the workload for him to remain in the WR2/3 discussion moving forward.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 75%

Noah Brown, Texans

Noah Brown has been the primary slot man with Robert Woods out. Brown’s played 50.0% or more of his snaps from the interior since taking over for Woods. Accordingly, he’s hit TPRR rates of 22.7%, 20.8%, and 18.2%. C.J. Stroud targeted Brown more than Nico Collins on a per-route basis in Week 9 (18.2% to 13.9%).

The most encouraging sign for Brown’s continued viability is his steadily increasing air yard share. Despite running from the inside, he was up to 27.9% of Stroud’s air yards, which should make him a priority in all fantasy formats.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 2%

Odell Beckham, Ravens

I didn’t know it was Odell Beckham’s birthday on Sunday until after kickoff. But the moment I heard it, I “knew” he was going to get a touchdown. It’s one of those narratives that just winds up working out.

And some might see his first score of the season as a fluke. But over the last month, with all of the starting WRs healthy, Beckham has started to assert himself as the WR1B amongst the Baltimore pass-catchers:

Target Share: 19.1% (2nd)
Air Yard Share: 24.2% (T-2nd)
TPRR: 26.5% (1st)
Red-Zone Target Share: 23.1% (T-2nd)
Third/Fourth Down Target Share: 20.0% (T-1st)

Lamar Jackson is looking for him as often as Zay Flowers but farther downfield (6.4 to 9.8 air yards per target). And, as we saw, Beckham already has a role when the Ravens get into scoring position. We already know we can trust Jackson. But now, we can trust Beckham in this passing game that continues to improve weekly.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 13%

Khalil Shakir, Bills

The Bills have been without Dawson Knox for two weeks, and the clear beneficiary has been Dalton Kincaid. However, Khalil Shakir has quietly slid into fantasy relevancy over the last two weeks.

A byproduct of not having a second TE on the field is running more three-receiver sets. Josh Allen was at a 48.5% dropback rate using 11 personnel through the first six weeks of the season. It’s up to 91.1% over the last two weeks. Consequently, Shakir’s usage has gone up in the role as Buffalo’s WR3:

Snap Share: 24.2% (Weeks 1-6), 68.3% (Weeks 8-9)
Target Share: 2.5%, 14.1%

And, of course, we’ll take the raw volume from the current QB1 in fantasy. But Shakir’s situational looks are encouraging, too. The sophomore receiver is the only non-Diggs WR with a catch on a third/fourth-down target. He’s also the only pass-catcher to haul in a deep ball from Allen. The primary starters are the main red-zone weapons, but Shakir is at least on the field when the team is looking to score (70.0% route rate). Given his continued involvement, Shakir should be a priority add for Week 10.