Week 12 Waiver Wire Report. Jayden Reed Breaks Out.

After a Thursday night marred by season-ending injuries, the rest of the NFL action brought our hype levels back up.

Tony Pollard got in the end zone. Christian Watson scored. Even Keenan Allen, who came into the weekend questionable with a shoulder injury, put up another monster performance.

But our rosters are made up of more than just our stars. And we’ll need to keep them fresh with the compressed schedule this week and playoffs right around the corner. So, after going through the data from the weekend, I’ve found the best adds heading into Week 12.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

Injury Round-Up

Ravens
- Mark Andrews (ankle)
Bears
- D’Onta Foreman (ankle)
Packers
- Aaron Jones (knee)
- Emanuel Wilson (shoulder)
Rams
- Cooper Kupp (ankle)
Dolphins
- De’Von Achane ( knee)
Seahawks
- Kenneth Walker (oblique)

Waiver Claims

The List

Zach Charbonnet
Josh Downs
Odell Beckham
Jayden Reed
Rashid Shaheed

RB

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks

One of the reasons for rostering Zach Charbonnet manifested itself on Sunday. Kenneth Walker left the game in the first quarter with an oblique strain. DeeJay Dallas was also available to work into the rotation, but we got this level of work from Charbonnet:

RB Rushing Share: 77.8%
Route Rate: 74.3%
TPRR: 23.1%
Green-Zone Touch Share: 100.0%

Walker has had more than 77.0% of the rushing attempts in three games this season and crossed the 23.0% TPRR line twice. Oh, and I’ll let you guess how often he’s run a route on more than 70.0% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks (hint: it hasn’t happened).

Nov 19, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (26) runs against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (44) in the third quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Charbonnet’s contingent upside was his selling point to holding him on your roster. Now, he’s got the workload. Despite the tough out in a divisional rematch on a short week (with an injured QB), Charbonnet becomes the top add for Week 12 with Walker set to miss some time.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 33%

Jeff Wilson, Dolphins

The team announced Jeff Wilson was a healthy inactive in Week 11. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane had practiced in a limited fashion all week, and Salvon Ahmed was healthy. It made sense they didn’t carry four RBs on game day. But then, Achane left the game early after injuring the same knee that put him on IR for a month.

When Achane has been healthy this season, the Dolphins have leaned mainly on two running backs. They only employed a three-man rotation in one contest: Week 3 against Denver. That’s right, the day Miami dropped 350 rushing yards on the Broncos’ defense. In that spot, the RB3 in the mix (Chris Brooks) took on 21.4% of the team’s rushes in the blowout matchup. And with Wilson’s passing-game usage (28.0% TPRR – highest of the team’s RBs), a modest amount of totes at least puts him in RB3 territory if he can earn the No. 2 spot behind Mostert.

In short, Achane’s change in status brings Wilson back into the rotation. Ahmed was serviceable in relief, but if healthy, we should expect to see Wilson back in the rotation alongside Mostert.

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WR

JUST IN CASE: Josh Downs, Colts

Josh Downs didn’t practice all week before their Week 10 matchup due to a knee injury. As a result, he only ran a route on 42.9% of Gardner Minshew’s dropbacks. And yet, Downs was second in air yards (25.8%) with a healthy 25.0% TPRR. Let’s assume the extra week of rest puts him back out on the field for a full-time workload, making him a high-priority add for the week.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%

Jayden Reed, Packers

I’ll (briefly) ignore Jayden Reed’s big day to highlight a potential schematic shift for the Packers’ offense.

Reed’s volatility as a fantasy asset stems from his route rate. Last week, it was at 57.1% (third among the WRs). But, judging by Jordan Love’s rate of using 11 personnel (three-receiver sets), it’s no wonder we saw a bit more of Reed:

Week 9: 44.1%
Week 10: 56.9%
Week 11: 67.8%

The rookie’s route rate jumped from 57.1% to 77.3% on Sunday. HC Matt LaFleur gave Love more passing-game options, and Reed was able to tie for the team lead in target share (15.8%). And, of course, it’s worth noting that the coaching staff used Reed on the end-around rush to get him into the box (and this was with Aaron Jones still on the field).

Jones will miss some time. The team had to evaluate Dontayvion Wicks for a concussion. On a short week, Reed’s opportunity and situation sets him up for an encore performance on Thanksgiving.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 7%

Odell Beckham, Ravens

The impact of losing Mark Andrews for the rest of the season cannot be understated. He was first or second in every opportunity metric for Baltimore. But while it’s fair to wonder what his absence will do for the Ravens’ pass-game efficiency, there’ll be more attempts to disperse among the WRs.

And Odell Beckham was already becoming a primary part of aerial attack.

Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) reacts after a play during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Despite Zay Flowers having the highest route rate (90.2%), Beckham has turned back the clock over the last month of games.

Target Share: 19.2% (1st among all BAL WRs)
Air Yard Share: 28.4% (1st)
TPRR: 26.7% (1st)
YPRR: 2.83 (1st)
Redzone Target Share: 19.0% (1st)

Baltimore has had a 0.0% DBOE rate since Week 8 (meaning they’re meeting expectations regarding when/how often they pass). Let’s see if/how much it changes in Week 12 without one of their top options on the field. Regardless, Beckham figures to be a beneficiary, giving him WR2 appeal in Week 12.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 15%

Rashid Shaheed, Saints

It’s been a week since we’ve seen the Saints’ offense, so let’s rewind to their Week 10 bout in Minnesota.

Michael Thomas went down with a knee injury, and New Orleans hopes the bye week gives him enough time to heal. Fantasy managers should watch his practice participation closely this week. Regardless, we know what we’re getting into with Rashid Shaheed.

For the season, Shaheed has been a role player. He entered Week 10 with a 72.9% route rate and a 12.7% target share. Without Thomas on the field, we saw more of the Saints’ speedster:

Route Rate (in Quarters 2-4): 91.9%
Target Share: 23.3% (T-2nd among all pass-catchers)
Air Yard Share: 27.0%
TPRR: 20.6% (3rd)

The Falcons have already given up top-24 fantasy days to other slot WRs (Jayden Reed – 19.7 PPR points, Amon-Ra St. Brown – 19.6, Christian Kirk – 16.4), and Shaheed has a 56.8% slot rate through ten games. Thomas’ absence would make him a viable flex play, but he’s at least worth a bench slot with other WRs falling in value.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 9%

Rondale Moore, Cardinals

Here are the positives for Rondale Moore.

Arizona had a -5.0 % pass rate over expectation (PROE) through the first nine weeks of the season. Since Kyler Murray’s return, it’s (slightly) up to -3.1%.

Moore averaged 2.0 air yards per target with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune under center. Moore is up to 8.8 over the last two weeks.

However, his workload shifted on Sunday, which adds some uncertainty to his outlook. Moore started the day with a deep target for a TD. Afterward, Murray didn’t look his way again. Greg Dortch led the team with a 27.6% share. However, Moore did get two more touches as a rusher (two attempts, six yards).

His route rate actually increased from Week 10 (75.0% to 78.4%), and he still ran the most routes from the slot (57.1%). And against the Rams, who just gave up 79 yards on ten targets to Seattle’s interior options, Moore should garner similar appeal in Week 12.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 10%

TE

Isaiah Likely

Ravens’ fans got a bit of hope when John Harbaugh indicated Mark Andrews has a chance to return at some point. But it’d be during the actual playoffs if Baltimore can make a run. So, Isaiah Likely returns to the fantasy spotlight, but his three-quarter debut wasn’t as encouraging as some would like.

For starters, he generated zero yards. None.

Nov 5, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) celebrates after getting a first down against the Seattle Seahawks during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

However, Likely ran 24 routes on 25 Lamar Jackson dropbacks. So, at least he was out there. He had a 56.8% slot rate (indicating he doesn’t have a primary blocking role) and did earn two targets. I agree it’s a minor role compared to Andrews, but let’s consider Likely’s usage within the context of this offense.

Coming into Week 11, three of his ten targets had come when the team was winning by 14 or more points. And all three were from Tyler Huntley and not Lamar. Likely moved into a starting role on an offense that took half the season to come online. It may take a week or two for him to get in sync with his QB.

Regardless, it’s not like Charlie Kolar (3 routes) will challenge him for looks, and Beckham’s shoulder injury is one to monitor. The Ravens are ninth in average yards per drive and have run the fifth-most plays per game in their opponent’s red zone over the last month. Let’s add as many receiving options from this offense as we can.