Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Projected Total: 46.5
• Spread: Bengals -3.5

Writing about this game is going to be painful. Honestly, I blame myself.

Over a week ago, I looked at the schedule, surveyed the matchups, and instantly “knew” Baltimore-Cincinnati was going to be the premiere matchup of the week. It has everything we could want. We have two high-end QBs and electric passing games with early-round fantasy picks on both sides. 

And then, Week 1 happened.

Oh, and did I mention I’m a Bengals fan?

But still, the storylines are intriguing regardless of which team you support. The Ravens got the W in their season opener, but the day extracted a heavy toll.

Meanwhile, the team with the $275M QB couldn’t top 275 yards of total offense. But before we relive my nightmare from Sunday, let’s dive into Baltimore’s approach and what we can expect for fantasy.

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Baltimore Ravens Week 2 Outlook

If not for Puka Nacua’s dominating Week 1 performance, Justice Hill and Gus Edwards would’ve headlined waiver wire columns this week.

J.K. Dobbins’s injury was a plate-tectonic shift in the fantasy world. Managers paid nearly 15% of their FAAB dollars to get Hill, with Edwards (11%) not too far behind in cost. And with the former’s usage, I get why he was the preferred option to stash:

Hill got more red-zone carries (3 to 1) and was the only rusher to run a route when Baltimore got in scoring position. Plus, scoring two touchdowns typically gets you on someone’s fantasy radar. But let’s add some context to Hill’s day/Week 2 outlook:

• Edwards had more carries after Dobbins’s exit (8 carries to Hill’s 7)
• Lamar Jackson’s PROE went from +1% in the first half to -5% with a lead, and we can’t project a similar game environment this weekend
• Melvin Gordon will likely join the active roster

So, acquiring Hill (at a reasonable cost) makes sense. Cincinnati’s rushing defense ranked 23rd in success rate allowed and gave up the most explosive runs in Week 1 (that hurt to type). But monitoring the RB rotation against the Bengals may be the best strategy in assessing his long-term value—especially if the Ravens’ passing game becomes a larger part of the offense.

In short, Baltimore’s aerial attack looked like it didn’t get any reps in the preseason. And it was missing its star TE. But we got a sense of how they want to operate.

• Time per Play: 39.3 seconds—would’ve been their third-fastest pace of ‘22
• PROE: +1.1% in neutral situation; -1% last season
• QB Designed Run Rate: 6.7%; 23.2% in ‘22

OC Todd Monken emphasized more passing and more plays for the Ravens over the offseason. And Lamar Jackson hinted at what’s coming through the first half against Houston. At the same time, Zay Flowers announced it.

Sep 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) is tackled by Houston Texans safety M.J. Stewart (29) during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The rookie’s 78-yard performance is the seventh-best among all first-year WRs going back to 2018. Flowers was the only Ravens pass-catcher to run double-digit routes, and he had more targets per route run (0.36) than Calvin Ridley (0.32), Chris Olave (0.31), and Davante Adams (0.31). Flowers was Baltimore’s WR1. And he’ll likely give the Bengals the most fits when on the field.

Not only was Flowers a force on the perimeter (9th-best YPRR among all WRs), but he was active in the slot. Zay was the only Baltimore WR to earn multiple looks from the interior, with a 42.9% route rate.

Similarly, Amari Cooper (20 yards) and Elijah Moore (43) used their route-running skills to create three of Deshaun Watson’s ten passing first downs. Given Flowers’s versatility both inside and out, he’ll have the best chance to continue producing against Cincinnati’s revamped secondary.

Cincinnati Bengals Week 2 Outlook

All right. Let’s do this. Let’s talk about Joe Burrow’s no-good, very-bad day in Cleveland.

It’s almost as if Burrow missed most of training camp and all of the preseason. But still, there were other noticeable issues.

The Bengals’ passing game operated out of a shotgun formation for all of Burrow’s dropbacks. Whether because of the calf injury from August or general preference, it’s reminiscent of last year.

He started off the 2022 season with only 3.1% of his dropbacks coming from under center.

And I mention it not just because of how it affected the passing game. With the Browns still pressuring Burrow on 36.4% of his attempts (admittedly, props to Myles Garrett for the crossover move), if he’d been closer to the line at the snap, things may have been worse. But it’s the running game that also suffers.

Through the first month of ’22, Joe Mixon ranked 52nd out of 69 qualifying RBs in EPA per attempt out of the shotgun. It wasn’t until mid-season, when the Bengals reworked their running game, that we saw an improvement. Hopefully the team gets in sync quicker (for my sanity), but the backfield split was also noteworthy. 

After Cincinnati let Samaje Perine walk in free agency, his role was up for grabs. Rookie Chase Brown got the offseason hype, but he was a healthy scratch. Instead, Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams split the backup work.

Evans also functioned as the team’s kick returner, which paved the way for us to see more of Williams. He played the most third-down snaps (9) and also ran 9 routes to Mixon’s 18.

It was promising to see Mixon be efficient relative to his previous Week 1 results. His 4.4 yards after contact per attempt was eighth-best for his entire career. But for now, all eyes are on the passing game.

At least Burrow’s connection with Ja’Marr Chase was still intact. Chase led the team in targets (9) and yards (39—that also hurts to type). But the rest of the offense wasn’t on the same page as the LSU duo.

Burrow couldn’t hook up with Irv Smith for a short conversion. Tyler Boyd’s longest catch went for six yards. And Tee Higgins? Well…

The slot fade wasn’t working for Cincinnati, and Higgins air-balled in the boxscore for the first time as a pro. However, he’s got a shot to bounce back against Baltimore.

The Ravens sustained two key injuries to their secondary, and CB Marlon Humphrey and S Marcus Williams weren’t practicing to start the week. 

While there’s no question we should expect to see a deep shot to Chase, Higgins’s 6’4” frame (hopefully) becomes an easy target for Burrow downfield. The former Clemson WR had more looks of 20 yards or more (17.3% deep-ball rate) than Chase (12.6%).

Plus, he had the fewest routes from the slot in Week 1. With a hilarious (I’m laughing through my tears) 20.7 aDOT, Higgins plays in the area most vulnerable to the Ravens, making him an under-the-radar fantasy start in Week 2.

Regardless, it all comes down to Burrow.

Baltimore got after CJ Stroud on an alarming 46.3% of his dropbacks in his NFL debut. The result was the fifth-most sacks taken by a QB in the first week of the regular season. But it’s not like Burrow hasn’t dealt with this before.

In their two regular-season meetings last season, Burrow kept it short. He zipped the ball out with a faster-than-average time of 2.39 seconds to throw with Chase, Boyd, and TE Hayden Hurst on the other end.

His yards per attempt also fell to 5.6. A similar approach to get the offense in rhythm would be the best recipe for success—not just for their home opener, but for their outlook on the rest of the ’23 season.