Week 4 Waiver Wire Report. Quentin Johnston Gets His Shot.

Real and fantasy football is a war of attrition. Every week, we see someone leave the field, which opens up opportunities for someone farther down the depth chart.

Wait. Hold up a second.

Just got word the Dolphins scored another touchdown.

Regardless, you know the drill here. After all the action, we have injuries, offensive shifts, and waiver claims. Let’s run through some of the relevant health situations to monitor and dive into the players worth picking up with FAAB recommendations for each (you can find them on our Waiver Wire tool).

Injury Round-Up

Saints
- Derek Carr (shoulder)
Ravens
- Gus Edwards (head)
Chargers
- Mike Williams (knee)
Panthers
- Jonathan Mingo (head)

Waiver Claims

The List

DeVon Achane
Zach Charbonnet
Joshua Palmer
Tank Dell
Adam Thielen

QB

Jameis Winston, Saints

Carr’s shoulder injury puts Jameis Winston back in the spotlight, and his aggressive nature fits New Orleans’ pass-game personnel.

The Saints have three WRs with an aDOT over ten yards. And Winston’s air yards per attempt was nearly two full yards more than Carr’s in the same game (9.1 to 7.2). New Orleans’ pass rate over expectation shifted from -4.9% to +8.3%, indicating the coaching staff won’t limit Winston if he gets the nod for Week 4.

Against Tampa Bay, who’ve already allowed at least one WR2 finish in every game, Winston has a shot at reclaiming fantasy relevancy in Week 4.

Andy Dalton, Panthers

The Panthers’ offense looked functional with Dalton under center. Carolina was 12th in EPA per drive, and their 30.8 yards per drive was a season-high mark for the team. Plus, the team had more juice. Before Week 3, Bryce Young’s highest single-game explosive pass rate was 3.0%. Dalton hit 8.6% against the Seahawks.

Part of it was personnel (a wide-open DJ Chark helps), and matchup played a role, too. And luckily, Dalton may face another weak secondary, raising his floor projection. The Vikings have allowed a QB1 performance in three consecutive weeks. Dalton might not have the same ceiling, but he’s a viable streamer for Week 4.

RB

Just in Case: Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks

Week 3 may have been a glimpse into the Seahawks’ vision for Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The rookie RB rusher has now had a higher success rate on the ground than Walker in back-to-back games. Accordingly, his share of the backfield work nearly doubled from 16.0% to 31%. And now we’re seeing his receiving role grow.

Sep 24, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (26) rushes against the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Charbonnet ran more routes than Walker and has multiple targets in two straight games. However, his limited red zone role will keep him in the RB3-4 discussion. But if Charbonnet continues to be efficient, he’ll be worth holding ahead of the start of bye weeks.

De’Von Achane, Dolphins

On the one hand, Achane had the highest share of the backfield totes in Miami’s blowout win over the Broncos, and his four targets were third-most on the team. He even had 71.4% of the team’s attempts in the red zone. No other RB has hit that mark for the Dolphins this season.

But, on the other hand, Achane was still in a committee with Raheem Mostert. Despite leading the backfield, Achane’s share amounted to less than half of the carries (42.9%), and over half of his yards came on three explosive plays.

With Jeff Wilson set to return, we’re in store for a three-way backfield, which will limit his weekly opportunity on paper. Some fantasy managers might place a timid bet on Achane.

Honestly, I’ll bet on talent.

It’s a horrific way to do analysis, but if you take away Achane’s runs of +10 yards, he’s left with a stat line of 15-70-1 as a ball carrier. However, his single-game efficiency metrics (60.0% success rate, 0.15 EPA per rush) rank in the top five since HC Mike McDaniel went to Miami.

His 14.3% target share? Mostert’s only exceeded that mark once and Wilson twice since ‘22.

Achane’s speed was an instant fit with this offense, and Week 3 showed how critical he’ll be to their success in more competitive games through the regular season.

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Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots

I’m not concerned about Rhamondre Stevenson’s hold on the Patriots’ backfield. But I’m also not not concerned.

Ezekiel Elliott forced the closest split between the two RBs in a tight game against the Jets (47.5% rushing share for Stevenson to Zeke’s 40.0%)
Elliott has been the more efficient runner in two of three games
Elliott’s route rate picked back up to 26.7% after dipping to 19.1% the week prior

Stevenson’s saving grace is his role in the red zone. Elliott’s yet to earn a touch once New England gets into scoring position. Regardless, with Elliott chipping away at Stevenson’s base work, picking Elliott up for cheap now may be the best move should more high-value touches come his way.

Melvin Gordon/Kenyan Drake, Ravens

I’d only put in a claim for either Baltimore RB if desperate. At best, you’ll get some workable volume for one week (assuming Gus Edwards remains in the concussion protocol for Week 4). And afterward, the Ravens’ backfield descends back into chaos.

Plus, it’s not like the ground game was that fruitful for fantasy, even with J.K. Dobbins out of the picture:

Week 2
- Justice Hill: 30.6% rushing share, 57.5% route rate (3 targets)
- Gus Edwards: 27.8%, 25.0% (0)
Week 3 (after Edwards left)
- Melvin Gordon: 46.2%, 52.6% (1)
- Kenyan Drake: 0%, 21.1% (2)

Lamar Jackson took on more work in the second half, and Drake primarily functioned as a receiver. Plus, the Ravens never got into the red zone towards the end of the game. So, we couldn’t gauge the touch split where it matters most.

I lean towards Gordon after he took most of the carries and had a part in the Ravens’ passing game. However, Drake’s potential receiving role may be viable in PPR leagues.

Stash: Cam Akers, Vikings

Through three weeks, Alexander Mattison is one of the least efficient runners in the league. He’s 27th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in EPA per rush. Mattison is yet to score a rushing TD, despite facing a Chargers’ defense who had given up one per contest heading into Week 3.

The Vikings could use an explosive back, but Akers doesn’t have the same speed since his Achilles injury. Regardless, stashing Akers to see if the team wants to make a shift in usage would put you ahead of the curve on an offense averaging three scores a game.

WR

Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, Texans

Let’s take a quick look at Tank Dell’s come up over the last few weeks:

Target share: 9.3% (Week 1), 23.3% (Week 2), 24.1% (Week 3)
Air yard share: 13.1%, 22.9%, 55.7%
Yards per route run: 1.21, 1.36, 5.58

Admittedly, I didn’t need to add the YPRR numbers. But the jump, fueled by his long TD score, made me laugh. And it’s not like I’m expecting them to increase.

Robert Woods and Nico Collins will always be a factor, and the Texans’ offensive output will oscillate from good to bad as CJ Stroud develops.

Sep 24, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) celebrates a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the fourth quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

But currently, Dell has a higher target share (18.3%) than DJ Moore (17.9%) and Terry McLaurin (17.4%). He’s seen more looks than the receivers we drafted, which should be enough to get him on your roster.

Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, Chargers

Mike Williams’ season-ending injury brings Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston onto our fantasy radars.

And, honestly, we should roster both, given the Chargers shift in passing rate with Austin Ekeler sidelined.

Palmer caught the touchdown pass to give the Chargers the lead and has at least one target in every game this season. He’ll naturally attract more attention and higher waiver bids. If you need production now, targeting Palmer makes sense. He was the next man up after Williams’ injury and ran the same number of routes as Keenan Allen in the fourth quarter.

But let’s say you’re 3-0 and have some bench fodder. Quentin Johnston has some appeal over someone like Rashod Bateman.

Johnston at least matched his season-high targets (3) while working closer to the LOS (0.7 air yards per target) to get him in space. It might be a slow burn, but the Chargers need to bring him on quickly to keep pace with the rest of the AFC.

Kendrick Bourne, Patriots

I assumed we’d see Kendrick Bourne fade into the Patriots’ depth chart with DeVante Parker back and JuJu Smith-Schuster healthier. After two weeks – nope.

Bourne: 20.3% target share
Parker: 15.9%
Smith-Schuster: 13.0%

He leads the team in air yards and is responsible for four of the team’s 11 explosive catches. If Mac Jones continues chucking it downfield (fifth-highest deep ball rate), Bourne’s tendency to be on the other end of those is worthy of a roster spot.

Adam Thielen, Panthers

For my general thoughts about the offense, see my notes above on when Andy Dalton is in the driver’s seat.

And in the case of Adam Thielen, the thought process is simple. He’s leading the team in targets (21.0%). Plus, the only other receiver running out of the slot (Jonathan Mingo) is in the concussion protocol. I’ll even toss in the Revenge Narrative for Thielen in Week 4 as the Vikings come to Carolina. If you want to restock your receivers, start with the Panthers’ WR1.

Rashid Shaheed, Saints

Every week, Rashid Shaheed does something ridiculous on the field.

Granted, it’s on special teams. But Shaheed still accounted for a third of the team’s air yards on his two targets in Week 3. And Jameis Winston had no problem airing it out to Shaheed in relief of Derek Carr.

The return of Flameis adds some juice to New Orleans’ speed receivers. Shaheed’s penchant for being the target downfield (45.5% deep-ball rate) while still functioning as an efficient receiver (greater YPRR than Michael Thomas) makes him worthy of a bench spot in fantasy.

Josh Downs, Colts

The Colts took a slight step back in terms of their dropback rate, but Josh Downs played a critical role in their win over the Ravens.

Downs’ route rate (83.7%) and target share (28.6%) hit a season-high in Week 3. He ran the most slot routes (31), and his low aDOT gave Gardner Minshew layups to keep the offense moving. Downs converted a 12-yard completion to set up the game-tying field goal in regulation. In fact, Downs had more looks on third and fourth down than Michael Pittman.

With a role securing high-percentage targets, Downs may fit better with Anthony Richardson as the Colts’ coaching staff considers the rookie QB’s play style. Regardless, with a steady flow of targets, Downs has potential as a WR4.