Week 7 Matchup of the Week. Chargers @ Chiefs Breakdown.

So, in a normal universe, I’d feel great about this game.

With a 48-point total at the start of the week, I’d bet the over without hesitation and start looking at player props. On one side, we’ve got the reigning Super Bowl champs. While the Chiefs' offense hasn’t looked as dynamic as it has in years past, the Chargers have a bottom-10 secondary. Meanwhile, LA is averaging the fifth-most passing yards per game. It sets up like a contest full of fantasy value.

But we live in the “Chargers can’t have nice things” universe. The “usually accurate Justin Herbert just misses Keenan Allen on a double move” universe.

So, of course, I’m somewhat skeptical. I’m expecting something like an Isaiah Spiller house call to happen. But if we’re going to break down the Chargers’ offense, let’s start with the passing game.

Chargers Week 7 Outlook

To say Justin Herbert was off on Sunday is an understatement. No doubt the Cowboys’ pass rush had an effect. But Herbert had been in a similar situation before the bye. The Raiders pressured him on 48.4% of his dropbacks, according to TruMedia. And Herbert responded with an EPA per dropback of 0.02, putting him ahead of Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa for the week. But even after getting the extra week to prepare, things got worse for LA’s aerial attack.

Herbert has attempted a pass of 1-10 air yards (short-area throws) on 46.2% of his dropbacks. And out of 34 qualifying starters, he ranked fourth in success rate and fifth in EPA per dropback on those passes heading into Week 6. Dallas took all of that away:

CPOE on Behind the LOS Attempts: +12.0% (Weeks 1-4), +5.0% (Week 6)
CPOE on Short-Area Attempts: +6.8%, -20.0%
CPOE on Intermediate Attempts: +3.1%, +14.2%

The stats numerically capture a massive discrepancy in Herbert’s play. It felt this way during the game, too.

Oct 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) drops back to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The fourth-down pass to Josh Palmer, deflected by CB DaRon Bland, lost the most EPA of any attempt from the Bolts’ QB. His interception to end the game (that I won’t entirely blame on him, given the situation), with a similar depth, was icing on the cake. So, if dealing with pressure is what it takes to short-circuit the Chargers’ offense, then this weekend won’t get any better for LA.

Kansas City’s pass rush is top 10 in sack rate (8.5%), and their secondary has allowed the sixth-fewest yards through the air. As a result, just one QB to face the Chiefs has finished inside the Top 12:

Week 1: Jared Goff, 14.0 FPTS, QB18
Week 2: Trevor Lawrence, 9.2 FPTS, QB30
Week 3: Justin Fields, 10.7 FPTS, QB24
Week 4: Zach Wilson, 19.2 FPTS, QB13
Week 5: Kirk Cousins, 19.9 FPTS, QB9
Week 6: Russell Wilson, 6.9 FPTS, QB25

Luckily, the drop in play for passers hasn’t capped their WRs in the process. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR11), Christian Kirk (WR13), and the combination of Allen Lazard (WR22) and Garrett Wilson (WR23) were able to find fantasy relevance against the Chiefs’ secondary. It keeps Keenan Allen safe (at least on paper), but everyone was going to have him in their lineups anyway. However, who to start outside of Allen was on our minds as they came out of the bye.

And we got some answers in Week 6.

After Joshua Kelley managed to average 38.7 yards per game in Austin Ekeler’s absence, there wasn’t much doubt 2022’s RB1 would retake the Chargers’ backfield. But if fantasy managers held onto Kelley, thinking he’d have contingent value, Ekeler stomped all over that idea.

Collectively, Kelley and Spiller totaled three touches to Ekeler’s 18. And once LA got into scoring position, neither of the backups even earned a snap. Without a projectable path to work as a receiver, neither can be started (or rostered, for that matter). And the same could be said about one of LA’s WRs, too.

We (including the Chargers’ coaching staff) looked to Quentin Johnston as an option to help fill the void left by Mike Williams. Week 4 (their first game without Williams) showed some promise, as the rookie got his first start and caught the first deep pass thrown his way. He whiffed on his subsequent targets, but it was a (minor) step forward nonetheless. However, out of the bye, he took a (major) step backward.

Route Rate: 71.0% (Week 4), 47.7% (Week 6)
Target Share: 12.5%, 5.4%
TPRR: 13.6%, 9.5%
Air Yard Share: 18.3%, 16.7%

Meanwhile, Josh Palmer has run more routes than Allen (just one more, but still), is the only other WR with more than one slot target, and has matched Allen in looks downfield. Both Palmer and Gerald Everett have seen their usage increase post-bye. Johnston can barely make it on the field. Everett finally getting red-zone work gives him streaming viability, and Palmer is a mid-range WR3, per our rankings. So until we see more from Johnston, he’s best left on the waiver wire.

Chiefs Week 7 Outlook

For the Chiefs’ offense, the overarching thought is things haven’t been as fruitful for fantasy as they have in years past. But there are some constants.

Patrick Mahomes still ranks in the top 6 for most passing efficiency metrics. Minus his bizarre two-turnover game against the Jets (his first time since 2018 throwing more than one interception without also throwing multiple touchdowns), No. 15 has been a top 7 fantasy QB in half of his starts. Only Herbert (4) and Tua Tagovailoa (3) have similar marks. And with his favorite target back, we’ve started to see more flashes of the Kansas City offense we remember.

After missing Week 1, Travis Kelce is back on top as the TE1. His 25.6% target share is greater than CeeDee Lamb’s (22.9%), and the Chiefs’ TE has more targets (46) in five games than DeVonta Smith (45) and Calvin Ridley (44). Both have played an extra game. No other player has generated more first downs when targeted in obvious passing situations than Kelce (80.0% first down per target rate in long-down-and-distance scenarios).

Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates after a first down against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

So, the main elements of Kansas City’s offense have remained the same. But their running game has changed a bit (for the better).

The consensus idea was the Chiefs’ backfield would be a committee. Each rusher had a role. Isiah Pacheco fit the early-down grinder archetype after posting the third-highest rushing success rate from Week 9 through the end of the regular season last year. And Jerick McKinnon was second in targets per route run. Their strengths fit the offense and its tendencies. But, clearly, Pacheco wanted more.

And it’s not like the seventh-rounder hasn’t earned the work. After six weeks of action, Pacheco’s efficiency ranks have rendered Clyde Edwards-Helaire as an option only if Pacheco’s tired:

Adjusted Yards after Contact per Attempt (min. 40 carries): 10th (out of 36)
Force Missed Tackle Rate: 8th
EPA per Rush: 10th

However, it’s Pacheco’s receiving work that has pulled him into the high-end RB2 discussion. His 8.6% target share is greater than Saquon Barkley’s, and the Chiefs’ RB1 ranks sixth in YPRR (1.38), right behind Tony Pollard (1.39) and Christian McCaffrey (1.45). And with a matchup against the Chargers, fantasy managers have no reason to keep him out of their lineup.

LA’s secondary ranks in the bottom 10 in run-stop win rate. They’ve yet to allow a 100-yard rusher in a single game, but RBs involved in their team’s passing game have been hard to stop:

Week 1: Raheem Mostert, 13.0 (total PPR Points), 3.3 (PPR Points from receiving work)
Week 2: Derrick Henry, 18.5, 4.5
Week 3: Alexander Mattison, 17.5, 8.2
Week 4: Josh Jacobs, 27.9, 16.1
Week 6: Tony Pollard, 17.0, 14.0

With the Chiefs favored by 5.5 points, the game script sets up well for Pacheco to continue to see touches throughout the entire contest. And with a steady flow of looks from Mahomes (ten over his last three games), Pacheco is a top-12 option at the position. But we’re still looking for a similar choice at WR in Kansas City.

Through six weeks, six different receivers have five or more targets from Mahomes. None of them have made it into the top 12 in any week this season. Only one has ranked as a WR2. Let’s talk about Rashee Rice for a second.

Rice started his NFL career with a touchdown on opening night on five targets. And after Kadarius Toney dropped and deflected his way into the doghouse, we expected more from the rookie receiver. But he only earned two targets the following week. Rice only ran a route on 33.1% of Mahomes’s dropbacks over the next month. So, maybe I’m missing something here.

Because when Rice is on the field, Mahomes looks for Rice on 31.5% of his routes. To put that rate in context, Stefon Diggs has a 31.3% TPRR. Cooper Kupp’s sits at 30.9%.

And when Rice gets the ball, good things happen. Rice has 148 yards AFTER the catch. Jahan Dotson has 140 yards, period. And if we’re giving Kelce so much praise for being a chain mover, Rice should receive similar accolades. He has five fewer first downs (13) than Kelce on almost half the amount of targets (46 to 28).

Rice has been efficient and capable of creating separation on his minimal usage. With as quickly as he’s been able to demonstrate an ability to be productive and stand out amongst his peers, Rice should be the WR to start from the Chiefs’ passing game.

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Week 7 Matchup of the Week. Chargers @ Chiefs Breakdown.

Chargers Week 7 Outlook

Chiefs Week 7 Outlook

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