Targets are arguably the most important statistic for pass-catchers in fantasy football. After all, all the ways that pass-catchers earn fantasy points – receptions, yards, and TDs – all start with getting targeted.

Ideally, we’d have a lineup chock full of target hogs, but those players are starting to come at a major premium in drafts. WRs absolutely dominate the top half of Underdog Fantasy drafts, with seven WRs currently having a first-round ADP. The WR36, the last WR3 in standard 12-team formats, has an average ADP in the middle of the sixth round.

To put that into perspective, the last starting RB (RB24) is coming off the board at pick No. 83.8 overall. That’s nearly a full 15 picks later.

With such a premium being placed on the WR position heading into 2023, it’s becoming tougher and tougher to build a roster that's dominant at WR. So, if you can’t realistically draft all target hogs, targets per route run becomes a very valuable stat to consider.

Let’s dive into everything you need to know about targets per route run (TPRR) 2023.

What is Targets Per Route Run (TPRR)?

While total targets can help measure volume, targets per route run (TPRR), also sometimes called target rate, is a metric that evaluates efficiency. Instead of looking at the total number of targets that a player earns, it highlights how often each player is targeted when running a route. TPRR can be measured WRs, TEs, and RBs.

The top receivers in football are going to stand out regardless of which metric you’re looking at. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams were all outstanding last year in TPRR, particularly when considering the volume of targets they received, which is to be expected.

However, TPRR can also help you identify undervalued assets that maybe don’t see the same raw volume at the position but see a heavy volume of targets when they play significant snaps.

Dec 4, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Arthur Maulet (35) breaks up a pass intended for Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

For example, Drake London finished just 25th in the league in total targets last season, which is not a number that jumps off the page. However, among receivers with at least 350 snaps, London ranked fifth in TPRR.

He was held back by a Falcons offense that ranked 31st in the league in pass rate, but London was consistently earning targets when the Falcons did drop back to pass. Ultimately, London displayed an ability to earn targets even as a rookie, which bodes well for his outlook moving forward.

TPRR highlights one of the most important skills that a pass-catcher can possess: the ability to get open. If a player isn't getting open, it doesn’t matter how much or how little his team is passing.

Why does TPRR matter in fantasy football?

TPRR is a great equalizer when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers. The amount of pass plays that a team calls can vary. The number of snaps that a player players varies. The number of routes that a player earns varies.

TPRR boils it down all to one simple number.

Our TPRR guru, Dwain McFarland, is one of the industry leaders in data analysis. He provides three use cases where TPRR can tell a different story than some other commonly-used metrics in fantasy football.

WRs with small sample sizes

Whether due to injuries or coaching decisions, not all WRs play a lot of snaps. Some of the truly elite WRs play nearly every single snap on offense, but those are definitely outliers.

Sometimes, a rookie can start his career at the bottom of the depth chart and see more playing time as the season progresses. Christian Watson stands out as a perfect example from 2022.

His playing time was sporadic early on in the season, but Watson was typically able to earn targets when he did see the field. And when Watsons's snaps increased, so did his fantasy production. He was a legit league-winner from Week 10 as the WR9 in PPR, and fantasy GMs who scooped him off the waiver wire thanks to his ability to earn targets were rewarded.

RB and TE evaluation

WRs may not be asked to stay in and block on passing plays very often, but it happens frequently for RBs and TEs on passing plays. As a result, those players may not necessarily post strong stats in terms of total targets or target share because they may only run a handful of routes per game.

A 2022 standout who didn't see target volume but excelled in TPRR was Chigoziem Okonkwo. He was targeted on nearly 30% of his routes run, the eighth-highest mark among players who saw at least 350 snaps.

Nov 17, 2022; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Tennessee Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo (85) catches a 45 yard pass as Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) looks on during the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Okonkwo didn't play a lot of snaps as a rookie and was on a Titans offense that didn't pass a lot, but he was consistently able to earn targets when he was on the field. With a much bigger workload projected for Okonkwo in 2023, it’s easy to see why he’s gaining steam as a sleeper TE in fantasy drafts.

The top fantasy RBs also generally thrive in TPRR. Austin Ekeler led all players in TPRR last season, and Christian McCaffrey ranked sixth. They may not look like focal points for their respective offenses when looking strictly at target share – Ekeler was at 18.5% and McCaffrey at 21.6% – but they were clearly heavily involved as receivers.

Evaluating players who have missed time

Players who miss games are going to be penalized in most metrics. They obviously can’t earn targets when on the sidelines. That means that a player's target share is going to decrease through no fault of his own.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a good example of this. He missed just one game last year, but he was heavily limited by various injuries in two other games. St. Brown didn't play on 100% of offensive snaps like Jefferson, Hill, or Adams, checking in somewhere between 80% to 90% most weeks.

So while St. Brown was still one of the busiest WRs in fantasy, his overall target stats aren’t a true representation of his involvement. He was only 11th in target share among high-snap players but ranked second in TPRR. Only Hill was a better target-earner than ARSB last season, so if he can stay on the field more in 2023, ARSB could be looking at even more elite WR production.

What are the baselines for TPRR?

TPRR baselines vary by position. In general, WRs are going to earn more targets than RBs and TEs. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that they have different thresholds for fantasy relevancy.

Over the last three years, the top-12 fantasy WRs averaged a TPRR of approximately 24%, the WR13 through WR24 dipped to 22% TPRR, and the WR25 through WR36 dipped to 21% TPRR. There are outliers, but a general rule of thumb is that a WR should be seeing close to 20% TPRR to stay relevant in fantasy.

The modern fantasy RB also needs to stay involved in the passing game. The top-12 RBs in 2022 averaged a TPRR of 20%, and the RB13 through RB24 averaged 18% TPRR. Even the RB25 through RB36 averaged a 17% TPRR.

And finally, the same holds true for TEs. The top-six fantasy TEs in 2022 averaged a 23% TPRR, and the TE7 through TE12 averaged a 19% TPRR.

Does TPRR correlate with fantasy production?

TPRR is a good stat to look at when evaluating players, but it’s not the only factor. Other than receptions and receiving yards, targets remain the best predictor of fantasy success. Efficiency is great, but nothing trumps good ole volume for fantasy purposes.

Other metrics like yards per route run (YPRR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), and Pro Football Focus receiving grade also have a better correlation with fantasy scoring than TPRR.

However, TPRR can help identify breakout candidates. If a player is seeing a high TPRR even on limited snaps, there’s a good chance that he'll see high target volume if he were to eventually earn a bigger role.

The below table outlines the average TPRR over the last five years for players based on their positional fantasy football finishes.

Who were the target leaders in 2022?