Fantasy Rankings vs. Underdog ADP. Finding Value.

Drafting a team can feel daunting if you’re new to best ball.

You’ve got sickos throwing out strategy tips and folks arguing about Week 17 correlations. But the draft itself is also problematic. You’ll have a plan and then watch another manager draft your guy. And the backup options by ADP aren’t worth the click. There should be a process for finding value independent of the market.

Enter Dwain’s Top 150 ranks.

With these, I found a few players worth reaching for and others to avoid as the hot best ball summer quickly approaches.

Big takeaways

I calculated the difference between Dwain’s ranks and Underdog’s ADP to kick things off. Afterward, I binned the data by position to get a high-level view of the data–and it looks like we should be valuing RBs more.

Positional ADP Trends

On the surface, this makes sense. Teams are either adding a third WR or pass-catching TE, adding more uncertainty to each veteran’s situation. It boosts the value of the QB, but the other WRs don’t have the same appeal. However, many RBs are in the same situation as last season or better.

Our own Ian Hartitz found a similar pattern while researching ADP, lending credence to Dwain’s findings. As a result, you’ll likely see a couple of overvalued WRs here in a bit.

Value targets

QB Geno Smith – Seahawks

Dwain’s Rank: 95th
Underdog ADP: 111.5

Geno Smith’s 2022 season opener was a career-defining moment. Not only did the Seattle QB beat his predecessor in Denver as a 6.5-point underdog, but he also dropped the coldest line of the season. Even Doug Baldwin had to get in on the pettiness surrounding the chaos. But the energy surrounding that moment propelled Smith and the Seahawks into a campaign we didn’t think was possible.

Short-lived playoff run or not, Geno’s resurgence was remarkable. We were right to question whether or not he could fit into this offense. And Smith gave us his answer.

Geno Smith

Offensive line injuries played a key part in Seattle’s demise, but Smith’s accuracy was one of the league's best. He’s one of three top-12 signal-callers in adjusted completion percentage and aDOT per PFF. And given his efficiency, we can see how Seattle wants to approach their pass game in ’23.

Seattle ended 2022 8th in PROE, with data indicating teams are likeliest to have a similar strategy the following season, given coaching and personnel continuity. Shane Waldron will be back as OC, and all the Seahawks’ key offensive starters will return. Plus, they made some pass-friendly additions through the draft:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (selected 25th overall) – consensus WR1 that can line up as the Z or slot receiver; should be on the field for all three-receiver sets
Zach Charbonnet (selected 52nd overall) – second-tier RB and top-10 in TPRR, YPRR, and YAC per reception amongst his classmates

Seattle extended Smith and added more pass-game options for him. While we may not know which pass-catcher will score every week, Geno benefits from their production, making him a strong value in drafts.

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WR Jonathan Mingo – Panthers

Dwain’s Rank: WR59
Underdog ADP: WR58

Drafters have already boosted Jonathan Mingo's ADP past his pre-draft spot. However, using the ranks and seeing the WRs still going ahead of him (Zay Jones - WR57, Darnell Mooney - WR53, and Skyy Moore - WR52), it's a palatable price hike. So let's dive in on the Panthers' new WR.

Let’s set aside the obvious for a second. At 6’1”, 226 lbs. with 4.46 speed, Mingo steps onto the Panthers' squad as the most athletic receiving option for Bryce Young.

Frank Reich’s plan for deploying Mingo makes me more interested than focusing on his measurables.

The Panthers want the Ole Miss phenom to function as a short-intermediate option. It’s a simple, fantasy-friendly way of getting the ball out of Young’s hands and into the paws of a prospect capable of creating after the catch. And, compared to receivers drafted ahead of Mingo, Carolina’s decision makes sense.

Rookie WR stats

Mingo’s after-the-catch averages and efficiency per route on short and intermediate targets align with his peers. So, without much competition in front of Mingo, drafters would be prudent to place bets on his takeover of the Panthers’ offense during his rookie campaign.

RB Elijah Mitchell – 49ers

Dwain’s Rank: 120th
Underdog ADP: 127.2

For Elijah Mitchell to be a value, you have to split his cost into two components: health and workload. And the market has appropriately priced his health.

Jan 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell (25) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The former sixth-rounder has played in just 16 games in two seasons and earned more than half the snaps in only 11. Mitchell’s injury history ranges from a finger fracture to an MCL sprain to a concussion.

So, drafters are justified in waiting for the mid-rounds to roll the dice on whether or not he’ll make it to the playoffs. But his workload alone would be worth a fringe early-round selection.

Real and fantasy pundits assumed that Christian McCaffrey would take over the backfield without mentioning Mitchell. CMC was top-10 in forced missed tackles during his legendary 2019 campaign, and his knack for earning targets would wipe away any residual value for the remaining SF RBs.

Mitchell had other thoughts.

Elijah Mitchell

The two played in three games (Week 18 was a blowout against Arizona, with Jordan Mason getting on the field) and nearly split the workload. Even if you included targets, Mitchell had more high-value touches than McCaffrey. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but it indicates how Kyle Shanahan intended to deploy this potent pair of players.

CMC only had two more carries than Mitchell in the playoffs. And yet, McCaffrey enters ’23 as the RB1 while his 1B sits at RB41. With San Francisco’s PROE likely to stay in the bottom 12, Mitchell should be a target at his current price.

Potential fantasy land mines

WR Courtland Sutton – Broncos

Dwain’s Rank: 107th (WR46)
Underdog ADP: 95.2

To be clear, this isn’t a knock against Courtland Sutton. And it’s important to understand the type of receiver he is and how Denver deployed him last season. Let’s talk about the former second-rounder for a second.

He earned 106 targets last year, making him their WR1.

So he produces like other top receivers?

Well, no. Of the 34 WRs with 100 or more targets, Sutton had the sixth-highest aDOT (13.3).

OK, but he got some high-percentage targets, right?

Again, no. Sutton had the second-lowest slot rate out of the same sample. Only Gabe Davis ran fewer routes from the interior. Instead, Sutton led the team in contest targets, effectively nuking his week-to-week fantasy value.

D.K. Metcalf played a similar role for Seattle, but the difference at quarterback for both franchises was not only apparent but ironic, given Denver’s new signal-caller.

Graph of pressure-to-sack ratio and average time to throw

Russell Wilson brought his brand of improvisational pocket management to Denver, where it got trampled like his legacy.

He was one of seven QBs above the league average in time-to-throw and pressure-to-sack ratio. And seeing his name next to more mobile passers like Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, it’s easy to see why things didn’t work out for him or Sutton. And their offseason has been a mixed bag for the deep/vertical passing game.

Denver signed two offensive linemen and a blocking TE in free agency but tacked on two RBs capable of contributing as receivers. Plus, the Broncos added Marvin Mims, who posted a 45.8% collegiate slot rate. While Sutton may be the best deep threat, Wilson may look to be more efficient in year one with Sean Payton and keep it short.

WR George Pickens – Steelers

Dwain’s Rank: 82nd
Underdog ADP: 71

George Pickens got the early-round draft capital and came into a nebulous situation which only increased his fantasy value. Pittsburgh needed a complement to Diontae Johnson, as Chase Claypool couldn’t fill the role. And while Pickens did, it wasn’t in a fantasy-friendly way.

The former Bulldog ran 86.6% of his routes from the perimeter and had more contested targets than the rest of the Steelers’ WRs combined. They made for sick highlight reels, but his development stopped there.

Targets per route run graph

Pickens is the only rookie receiver of the ’22 class to play more than 12 games and earn fewer targets on a per-route basis by the end of the season. He couldn’t capitalize on Claypool’s departure and remained the third option in Pittsburgh’s aerial attack.

Pickens ended the ’22 season as the WR37 in half-point PPR and didn’t show he could earn more targets, but the market has him as the WR34. Due to his volatile profile (high aDOT, low slot rate), drafters should avoid him until his ADP falls.

RB Travis Etienne – Jaguars

Dwain’s Rank: 44th (RB15)
Underdog ADP: 34.2 (RB12)

An early-round RB should be able to secure the majority of their backfield touches—but not just the carries between the 20s.

We know targets and attempts (or looks) from inside an opponent’s red zone are more valuable. Just look at the volume RBs with advance rates above the average baseline (16.7%) in BBM III secured.

RB Table

With that in mind, let’s look at Travis Etienne.

The former first-rounder started the ’22 season sharing the totes with James Robinson. With Robinson still in Florida, Etienne’s red-zone touch rate sat at 37.8% with a target share of 9.5%.

Fans of the Clemson product will be happy to hear his RZ percentage jumped to 71.4% after Robinson left, but Etienne only earned 6.1% of the looks for the remainder of the regular season. And there’s a good reason why.

Out of 47 RBs with at least 25 targets, Etienne ranked:

41st in targets per route run
29th in yards per route run
38th in slot rate

Etienne was a check-down option and not a true receiver. Plus, the Jaguars have Calvin Ridley, Parker Washington, and another year of Evan Engram to minimize Etienne’s pass-game role further. And there’s a chance his hold on the rushing share may diminish.

Jacksonville’s Day 2 addition of Tank Bigsby highlights one of Etienne’s flaws: short-yardage situations. With three or fewer yards to go, Etienne was 25th of 39 RBs in EPA per attempt. There’s a path to Etienne ceding work in critical situations to the more capable rusher. If so, it’ll be hard for him to meet his RB12 cost.

You can fade Etienne and opt for different running backs on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with a new account. Sign up below and start drafting today!