Best Ball Strategy. When Stacking Goes Wrong.

I sometimes take correlation too far in best ball drafts.

I’ll pick Jalen Hurts, miss out on all the popular stack options and talk myself into Quez Watkins being the guy I needed for Week 17. Danny Gray got Day 2 draft capital from Kyle Shanahan? I guess I didn’t need to take George Kittle. The examples are endless, as we can use any training camp clip or bit of coach speak to justify the click. That is, as long as it completes our stack.

But drafting to make pretty, correlated rosters will make us more Schrute Bucks than actual dollars. And late-round picks already feel like dart throws.

So, to maximize both approaches, I looked into the diminishing returns on stacks as we get deeper into the draft.

Notes on Process

I have my draft tendencies, and, like I said, I’ll stretch to connect a QB to one of his pass-catching options. But I didn’t know if I was the only one. Luckily, Underdog had free data from past Best Ball Mania drafts to test my idea.

To start, I counted how often drafters targeted each team in the first half of the draft. I could’ve used the Top 100 picks but preferred a clean break at the end of the ninth round. Afterward, I calculated the number of players drafted from each team with our final four picks for those late-round darts. The two values (early and late selections) formed a relationship I could plot.

Graph 1

Despite less popular teams having more players available for us to take, we still wanted a piece of our favorite offenses. It makes intuitive sense.

But that doesn’t mean it’s right.

Jody Fortson got the nod from drafters 133 times and totaled 108 yards on nine targets. Folks clicked Amari Rodgers 466 times despite Green Bay’s additions of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The former Day 2 pick played special teams. We assume good teams will produce viable fantasy plays when we need them most (i.e., Week 17), but that’s not always the case.

I set a minimum threshold of 8.0 PPR points and sorted each player by team and ADP. I wanted late-round options, so I included anything past the 14th round. And again, I had two values (early-round picks and late-round hits) to draw a trend.

Graph 2

Once more, we get a counterintuitive result. There were 23 late-round hits in Week 17 last season, and 16 (69.6%) of them came from teams with only two or three players drafted in the early rounds.

Put it another way: Offenses with more useable fantasy players late in drafts gave us better scores.

Instead of fighting over the seventh option for Patrick Mahomes, the second or third option for Mac Jones was the answer (e.g., Tyquan Thornton — 15 PPR points against Miami in Week 17). Actually, Jerick McKinnon (Mahomes’ second preference against the Broncos during Week 17) notched two scores. But his performance also highlights we shouldn’t discard the players with fewer touts on social media.

Regardless, relying on our primary stacks to give us late-round gems doesn’t always work. However, we can tilt the odds in our favor.

Finding Teams We Should Target

Profiles and archetypes give us a method to follow rather than specific names to target. In short, it makes the analysis more adaptable. And with a list of the top five teams with late-round hits, we can pull out where our focus should be:

2022: Panthers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Saints, Cardinals
2021: Patriots, Buccaneers, Titans, Cardinals, Browns
2020: Bengals, Texans, Colts, Raiders, 49ers

The teams from 2022 alone give us a starting point: nebulous offenses. Arizona traded for Marquise Brown, drafted Trey McBride on Day 2, and had to wait six games for DeAndre Hopkins to return. We had no idea what Kansas City’s offense would look like without Tyreek Hill. Trevor Lawrence got an adult as his head coach.

Other than Kansas City, the vibes surrounding the other squads weren’t great. As a result, we got discounts on players with easier paths to routes, touches and fantasy points. And we’re seeing it happen again this season.

Graph 3

Vegas team totals have pointed us to the teams we should target, and overall hype for other offenses has pushed them into the spotlight. But we can’t always be sure about who will underperform. A signing, trade or modest step forward in skills can change our opinion. And after looking at the late-round options, I’ve got three teams worth eyeing in the late rounds instead of trying to build out suboptimal stacks.

Green Bay Packers

Before you rush to look at Jordan Love’s lone start against KC in Week 9 of last year, remember the Chiefs’ defense was seventh in DVOA. They pressured him on 48.7% of his dropbacks. However, the outlook for the Packers after losing their future Hall of Fame QB isn’t as bleak.

The offense took a step back in ’22 without Davante Adams. Their pass rate over expected (PROE) dropped to -3.0%, matching Love’s PROE in that Week 9 game two seasons ago. Plus, Love scrambled on 10.3% of his dropbacks, which lifts the floor of the offense’s efficiency. With Love continuing to develop, we should look to his pass-catching options outside of the explosive Christian Watson, and one’s already standing out:

Jayden Reed is already working as the team’s starting slot WR after the GM identified a need for a player fitting that role earlier in the offseason. And with Green Bay set to face a defense that allowed the 10th-most QB1 finishes last season in the final week of the tournament, the Packers offer stronger potential in the late rounds than some of the popular options.

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Preferred Targets: Jayden Reed (ADP: 169.1), Luke Musgrave (204.4)

New York Jets

Dwain already marked the Jets as a team on the rise in May. Having Rodgers under center certainly boosts the team’s expectations from an efficiency standpoint. However, the underlying fantasy implication is the increased number of red-zone plays we can project for the Jets. And, more specifically, the amount of high-value targets up for grabs in the offense.

Graph 4

The Packers’ offense thrived on Rodgers slinging the rock to Adams from some short distance from the goal line. They connected from inside the 5-yard line five times in ’21. And Rodgers didn’t stop passing after Adams left for Vegas. Green Bay was ninth in red-zone PROE. So as he heads out to Jersey, his penchant for looking to his pass-catchers likely goes with him.

I outlined WR3s in ambiguous passing games who can threaten deep defensive attention as an archetype to target late in drafts. Mecole Hardman fits with the Jets’ offense reaching a turning point. Regardless, if their Week 17 matchup is against another improved team (Cleveland), we should expect a strong outing from both squads and look to the Jets’ passing game for relief late in drafts.

Preferred Targets: Tyler Conklin (ADP: 190.5), Mecole Hardman (208.0)

New England Patriots

The Mac Jones discourse gets clouded when looking at his two seasons as a starter. However, it comes down to two questions with Jones:

Can he elevate a functional offense?
Can he operate a normal passing game?

The answer to the first question is no. Emphatically. Jones has been at or below the league-average rank in scrambles the last two seasons and even worse in EPA generated from those runs. Meanwhile, his pressure-to-sack ratio has been on par with Taylor Heinicke’s and Carson Wentz’s since 2021. So, no, he’s not elevating the play around him. But the latter question is where we can find fantasy value.

Jones was 11th in EPA per play his rookie season and ranked ninth in completion percentage over expected (CPOE). Josh McDaniels turned a TB12-less offense into a team that made it to the Wild Card Round. And with Bill O’Brien back in the fold, Jones has a stronger staff around him.

O’Brien’s offenses ranked 16th, eighth and ninth in EPA per play over his final three seasons in Houston. While Jones isn’t as dynamic as Deshaun Watson, New England’s personnel with O’Brien can perform better than their ranking of 24th last season. And with the Patriots set to meet the Bills in Week 17, targeting the late-round options attached to Mac Jones has more potential than our typical selections.

Preferred Targets: DeVante Parker (ADP: 193.0), Hunter Henry (213.5)