The Atlanta Falcons last year had low expectations, and they met them, following up a 7-10 season under HC Arthur Smith with another 7-10 performance. But 2022 was not like 2021.

Rather, it was a great success in terms of process and results, as they significantly improved in point differential from -146 to -21 while beginning to rebuild the roster in earnest by moving on from aging franchise QB Matt Ryan. 

This year, the Falcons look to gain momentum in Smith’s all-important third season with the team. A winning record feels like the minimum threshold for 2023 not to be considered a failure — and more would be better.

A postseason berth, a division title, a playoff victory: All of these are within the realm of reality and on the team’s wish list. But what the Falcons would probably like most of all is to end the season knowing that second-year third-rounder Desmond Ridder is their QB of the future.

In this 2023 Falcons preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Falcons preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 28.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Jake Matthews, LG Matthew Bergeron, C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary
• Backups: G/T Jalen Mayfield, C/G Matt Hennessy, OT Joshua Miles, OG Jovaughn Gwyn
• Borderline: OTs Tyler Vrabel and Ethan Greenidge 
• Notable Turnover: OT Germain Ifedi (Lions), G/T Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals), OG Colby Gossett (Browns) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Matthews is a 31-year-old franchise blindside bookend who has been with the Falcons his entire career. He’s a middle-of-the-road run blocker but strong pass protector with one Pro Bowl. Last year he allowed just 17 pressures.

Bergeron is a second-round rookie who made 39 starts at tackle in college but will likely slide to guard in the NFL. His anchor and hand placement make him a liability in pass blocking, but he’s an asset in run blocking. Dalman is a 2021 fourth-rounder who started all 17 games in the pivot last year. He’s subpar at pass blocking (55.1 PFF grade) but skilled at run blocking (69.5).

Lindstrom is a 2019 first-rounder who was second-team All-Pro last year. He’s a dominant run blocker and improving pass blocker who allowed just nine pressures in 2022. McGary — like Lindstrom — is a 2019 first-rounder who paves the road as a run blocker. Last-year he allowed a career-low 19 pressures, but he has historically been a pass-blocking vulnerability.

Mayfield is a 2021 third-rounder who missed last season to back injury but started all 16 games at LG as a 21-year-old rookie. He was terrible (57 pressures, 11 sacks) and is expected to lose his starting job to Bergeron, but he can maybe sub in at tackle (where he played in college) and could improve given his young age.

Hennessy is a 2020 third-rounder who started at C in 2021 but lost the No. 1 job last preseason. He has C/G flexibility and is a truck in the running game but a lemon in the passing game.

Miles somehow looks like the frontrunner to be the team’s swing tackle. He was out of football last year after final cuts and played just 24 offensive snaps for the Cardinals in his first three seasons — but the Falcons gave him a one-year contract with $352,500 guaranteed, so I bet he’s making the team.

Gwyn is a seventh-round rookie who made 47 RG starts at South Carolina. Because of his size (6-foot-2 and 297 pounds), he might need to move to C. 

Vrabel and Greenidge are both competing to make the roster given the team’s shallow OT depth. Vrabel — son of Titans HC Mike Vrabel — is a 2022 UDFA who saw no snaps last year but made 33 starts in college. Greenidge is a 2019 UDFA who joins the Falcons after four years with the Saints. He hasn’t played a snap since 2020. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie
• EDGE Backups: Bud Dupree, Adetokunbo Ogundeji, DeAngelo Malone, Zach Harrison
• DT Starters: Grady Jarrett, Calais Campbell
• DT Backups:  David Onyemata, Ta'Quon Graham, Eddie Goldman, Timmy Horne
• Notable Turnover: DTs Abdullah Anderson (Commanders) and Jalen Dalton (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Carter joined the Falcons last year after four seasons with the Giants. He played a career-high 909 snaps last year and is acceptable against the run but has never had more than five sacks in a season. Ebiketie is a 2022 second-rounder who had an above-average 70.0 PFF run defense grade last year but only 2.5 sacks.

Dupree is a 30-year-old offseason addition who spent the first eight years of his career with the Steelers (2015-20) and Titans (2021-22). He’s a below-average run defender who has had double-digit sacks just once in his career.

Ogundeji is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has managed just 17 pressures on 477 pass rushes over the past two years. Malone is a 2022 third-rounder who had a 57.5 PFF grade last year. Harrison is a five-star third-round rookie who entered Ohio State with abundant hype and left it with just 11 sacks four years later. 

Jarrett is a 30-year-old two-time Pro Bowler who has played his entire career with the Falcons. His best days are behind him, but he hasn’t had a PFF grade below 67.5 since 2016.

Campbell is entering his 16th season in the NFL and first with the Falcons. He has the strength to hold up inside, the “svelte” size to line up on the edge (6-foot-8 and 282 pounds) and the overall ability (six Pro Bowls since 2014) to impact an offense in both phases: Not since 2010 has he had a PFF grade below 70.

Onyemata joins the Falcons after seven years with the Saints. He’s an average-at-worst pass rusher and plus run defender. Graham is a 2021 fifth-rounder with zero sacks but run-stopping muscle.

Goldman is a 29-year-old nose who opted out of 2020, sucked in 2021, signed with the Falcons in 2022 and then retired, and now has un-retired and returned to the team. When on his game he’s an above-average run stuffer and pass rusher, but he could be rusty red after two years off in the past three seasons. Horne is a 2022 UDFA who had a 47.4 PFF grade last year. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Troy Andersen, Kaden Elliss
• Backups: Mykal Walker, Nate Landman
• Borderline: Tae Davis and Andre Smith
• Notable Turnover: Rashaan Evans (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Andersen is a 2022 second-rounder with elite athleticism (4.42-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 243 pounds) and an intriguing history of collegiate versatility (RB and LB as freshman, QB and occasional punter as sophomore, LB and RB as junior, All-American LB as senior). He’s still learning the position, which helps explain his dreadful 40.2 PFF grade last year, but he has long-term upside.

Elliss is a 2019 seventh-rounder who joins the Falcons after four years with the Saints. He has outstanding box/edge flexibility and is coming off a career-year with 632 snaps, 78 tackles and seven sacks — but he’s a hit-and-miss cover man.

Walker is a 2020 fourth-rounder whose 2022 campaign (in which he played a career-high 769 snaps) was plagued by across-the-board mediocrity. Landman is a forgettable 2022 UDFA. He’ll need to hold off Davis and Smith, two offseason acquisitions with special teams utility.

Secondary

• CB Starters: A.J. Terrell, Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes
• CB Backups: Clark Phillips, Dee Alford, Tre Flowers
• S Starters: Jessie Bates, Richie Grant
• S Backups: Jaylinn Hawkins, DeMarcco Hellams
• Borderline: CBs Darren Hall and Cornell Armstrong
• Notable Turnover: CBs Casey Hayward (free agent) and Isaiah Oliver (49ers), S Dean Marlowe (Bills)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Terrell is a 2020 first-rounder who was second-team All-Pro in 2021 and has allowed just a 50.7% catch rate over the past two years. He can be inconsistent in coverage but is one of the league’s best corners when he’s on.

Okudah was drafted No. 3 overall by the Lions in 2020 and traded to the Falcons this offseason for a fifth-rounder after three years of bad-at-best production (10.9 yards per target). Hughes played alongside Okudah with the Lions last year in the slot after four years with the Chiefs (2021) and Vikings (2018-2020). He’s willing in run defense (81.1 PFF grade in 2022) but weak in coverage (9.8 yards per target).

Phillips is a four-star All-American fourth-round rookie who has modest size (5-foot-9 and 184 pounds) and speed (4.51-second 40-yard dash) but serious production (eight interceptions, 19 passes defended in final two seasons) and intelligent aggressiveness.

Alford is a small-school 2022 UDFA who stepped up last year as a rotational slot man with 246 snaps of average-at-worst play in coverage and run defense. Flowers — who played under secondary coach Steve Jackson on the 2021 Bengals — joins the Falcons with five years of experience, elite size (6-foot-3 and 200 pounds) and good athleticism (4.45-second 40-yard dash), but he has never had a PFF coverage grade of even 60.

He’ll need to hold off Hall (2021 fourth-rounder, 9.8 yards per target last year) and Armstrong (2018 sixth-rounder, no PFF grade above 57.5), both of whom could get pushed off the roster after all the CB additions this offseason.

Bates is a 26-year-old free agent signing who made 79 starts for the Bengals over the past half-decade and was a 2020 second-team All-Pro. Even as a deep safety, he’s an above-average run supporter. Like Flowers, he played under Jackson on the Bengals (2020-21). Grant is a 2021 second-rounder yet to distinguish himself as a run-stopper, pass rusher and cover man.

Hawkins is a 2020 fourth-rounder who started last year but will be pushed to the bench with the addition of Bates. In three seasons, he hasn’t had a PFF grade of more than 60. Hellams is a seventh-round rookie who started two seasons for Alabama and led the team with 108 tackles as a senior. He has the size (6-foot-1 and 213 pounds) and tenacity to be an attack box safety. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Younghoe Koo
• Punter: Bradley Pinion
• Holder: Bradley Pinion
• Long Snapper: Liam McCullough
• Kick Returner: Cordarrelle Patterson
• Punt Returner: Mike Hughes
• Borderline: PRs Scotty Miller, Penny Hart and Josh Ali
• Notable Turnover: KR/PR Avery Williams (IR, knee)

Koo is a 2017 UDFA who bounced around the NFL and AAF before catching on with the Falcons in 2019. A 2020 Pro Bowler, Koo has converted 89.1% of his field goal attempts and has decent distance with 19 conversions on 24 attempts of 50-plus yards over the past three years.

Pinion joined the Falcons last year after seven years with the 49ers (2015-18) and Buccaneers (2019-21). He has an uninspiring 43.9 yards per punt for his career. 

McCullough is a 2020 UDFA who logged his first season of regular action last year. Patterson has an NFL-record nine kick return touchdowns for his career and a blinding average of 29.5 yards per kick return. With the injury to Williams, Patterson is likely to see more work this year as a return man, especially now that the team needs him less as a runner. 

On punt returns, I give the early edge to Hughes (who also might push Patterson for kick return duty), given that he was a dominant return man in college (20-635-2 kick returning, 14-233-1 punt returning in final season). But he hasn’t been a serious returner in the NFL, and he could face competition from Miller, Hart and Ali, all of whom were also productive college returners. 

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Falcons’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 2
• Home Division: NFC South
• Opposing Division: NFC North, AFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 3-10
• Opponents: at DET, vs. JAX (in London), vs. HOU, vs. WAS, at TB, at TEN, vs. MIN, at ARI

When a team has one of the league’s easiest schedules, it’s hard to say of any point in the season, “Here’s a really hard stretch.” But Weeks 3-10 aren’t especially kind to the Falcons.

After opening the season with two games at home, they go to Detroit and then London, where they’re sizable underdogs to the Lions and Jaguars.

After that, instead of getting a bye, they return home weary to host the division rival Panthers in Week 6, and then in Week 7 they stay at home but have a three-day rest disadvantage against the Commanders. And then they play three-of-four away before heading into the Week 11 bye: at the Buccaneers (divisional matchup), at Titans (off the bye, facing the familiar Smith), home vs. Vikings (favored, playoff team), and then at Cardinals (QB Kyler Murray might be back).

Again, I’m not saying that this stretch is exactly difficult. But it’s also more challenging than one might expect, and if the Falcons fail to meet expectations this year it will likely be because they lost some games they should’ve won in Weeks 3-10.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Falcons.

• HC Arthur Smith makes his offense one-dimensional by emphasizing the running game to an absurd degree.
• DC Ryan Nielsen underperforms to open the year and is stripped of defensive playcalling duties, which are given to assistant HC Jerry Gray after a Week 8 road loss to the Titans.
• QB Desmond Ridder plays like a guy selected on Day 2 of the worst QB prospect class of at least the past 20 years.
• RB Bijan Robinson is merely excellent instead of elite.
• WR Drake London explodes on the sideline late in the fourth quarter of a Week 6 loss after Ridder overthrows him on a deep would-be touchdown on his first target of the day.
• TE Kyle Pitts is slow to return from injury and eventually cedes significant playing time to the other TEs because they’re superior blockers.
• LG Matthew Bergeron struggles as a rookie in the transition from tackle to guard while C Drew Dalman continues to be a liability in pass protection, and together they form a weak link in an otherwise solid OL chain.
• EDGEs Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie and Bud Dupree “lead” a perimeter unit that gets almost no pressure on opposing passers.
• DTs Grady Jarrett and Calais Campbell start to play like guys in their 30s.
• LBs Troy Andersen and Kaden Elliss endlessly submit themselves to coverage exploitation.
• CBs Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes bring Detroit’s pass defense to Atlanta.
• Falcons regress to 6-11, Arthur Smith is fired and Kliff Kingsbury is hired as HC after what owner Arthur Blank calls, “An impressive and thorough interview process.”

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Falcons.

• HC Arthur Smith uses just enough play-action passing pepper to keep his beefy run-based offense spicy.
• DC Ryan Nielsen benefits from the experience and interconnectedness of everyone else on his defensive staff and credits assistant HC Jerry Gray for his strategic contributions after a Week 8 road win over the Titans.
• QB Desmond Ridder plays like a guy who should’ve been drafted late in Round 1.
• RB Bijan Robinson wins Offensive Rookie and Player of the Year after he breaks Eric Dickerson’s all-time single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards.
• WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts both cross the 1,000-yard threshold in Week 18.
• LG Matthew Bergeron settles in at guard, and C Drew Dalman continues to be a liability in pass protection — but it doesn’t matter because the team is so dominant running the ball.
• EDGEs Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie and Bud Dupree get just enough pressure off the perimeter to make the 
• DTs Grady Jarrett and Calais Campbell do what they always do.
• LBs Troy Andersen and Kaden Elliss form a surprise duo that contributes in all phases, as Andersen locks down coverage, Elliss rushes off the edge and both punish runners in the box.
• CBs Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes both evolve into almost league-average players in their new environment.
• Falcons go 12-5, squeak by the Vikings on Super Wild Card Weekend, overwhelm a soft Lions run defense in the Divisional Round and then predictably lose by double-digit points on the road to the Eagles in the NFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Falcons as a strong “bet on” team thanks primarily to their easy schedule.

If I were to fade the Falcons at some point, it would likely be at home or outside the division.

• Smith at Home: 5-11 ATS (31.2% ROI for faders)
• Smith Outside NFC South: 9-12-1 ATS (8.5% ROI for faders)

But I don’t see myself betting against them often this year.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

There’s a correlation between all the team futures markets: Super Bowl, Conference, Division, Win Total, and Playoffs — they all move in coordination with each other

But this correlation is rarely perfect, and sometimes it’s vulnerably imperfect. I think we have such a situation with the Falcons when we look at these two lines.

• Under 8.5 Wins: +120 (BetMGM)
• To Make Playoffs: +120 (BetMGM)

Based on these odds, the Falcons are expected to go over 8.5 wins, but they’re also expected not to make the playoffs.

I don’t think that makes much sense, especially in a weak NFC.

In each of the past two years, one NFC team with nine wins has been left out of the playoffs, so it’s possible for a winning team not to make the postseason: It happens. But that’s a tough predictive needle to thread, which means that there’s probably an exploitable gap between the fabric of these two markets.

Falcons to Make Playoffs (+120, BetMGM)

I have the Falcons projected for 8.6 wins as the No. 7 team in the NFC, so it’s not as if I’m saying it’s a sure thing that they make the playoffs. But I’m closer to nine wins than eight, and nine wins will likely get the job done.

And it’s worth remembering that the Buccaneers won the NFC South last year and made the playoffs with a losing record. Within the Falcons’ own division, it’s possible for a team to go under 8.5 wins and still get a postseason berth.

At +120 odds, the Falcons have a 45.5% implied probability to make the playoffs, but I think their true odds are at least a coin flip and maybe as high as 55%.

You can tail the Falcons to make the playoffs on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below to start betting TODAY!

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