Last year the Houston Texans and GM Nick Caserio almost executed the “credible tank” to perfection by promoting underwhelming DC Lovie Smith to HC and going with second-year third-round QB Davis Mills as the starter: “Lovie is a leader of men and experienced NFL HC! He already knows the organization and the guys love him! And Mills showed great promise as a rookie! He could become the type of QB we could build a team around! We’re definitely 100% not tanking!”

The first 14 games of the credible tank were inspiring, starting with the Week 1 home tie against the division rival Colts and culminating with the Week 15 home OT loss to the Chiefs: “We just took the best team in the league to OT! We almost won! We’re definitely 100% not tanking!” At that point, the Texans had a 1-12-1 record, and the No. 1 pick was theirs to lose.

And then they lost it, by winning two of their final three games, including the season finale, which they won by 1 point thanks to a last-minute touchdown drive followed by a two-point conversion.

If Smith hadn’t pushed the team to drive down the field, and if Mills hadn’t thrown two scoring passes on the game-winning drive (the touchdown and then the two-pointer), the Texans wouldn’t have lost the No. 1 pick that Smith and Mills spent all season putting them in position to get.

On the one hand, it was high poetry. On the other hand, it was shoddy workmanship.

Smith was fired — the second one-and-done Texans HC in as many years — and Mills was destined to be replaced by a rookie QB. Enter new HC DeMeco Ryans and QB CJ Stroud…and EDGE Will Anderson.

This year, the Texans hope to improve on their 2022 record, and they better — because they don’t have their first-rounder next year — and the only thing worse than missing out on the No. 1 pick in 2023 would be missing out on it again in 2024.

In this 2023 Texans preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Texans preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of Aug. 26.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Kenyon Green, C Juice Scruggs, RG Shaq Mason, RT Tytus Howard
• Backups: OT George Fant, OL Michael Deiter, C/G Jarrett Patterson, T/G Josh Jones
• Injured: C Scott Quessenberry (knee), OT Charlie Heck (foot) 
• Notable Turnover: RG A.J. Cann (free agent), OL Justin McCray (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Tunsil is a 29-year-old franchise blindside bookend who has made three Pro Bowls and allowed only six sacks since the Texans traded two first-rounders and a second-rounder (and a couple of players) to acquire him (and other considerations) from the Dolphins in 2019.

Green is a 2022 first-rounder who allowed a troublesome 47 pressures on 495 pass rushes last year.

Scruggs is a second-round rookie who will slide into the starting C role with Quessenberry tearing his ACL and MCL in practice. A two-year starter at Penn State, Scruggs profiles as more of a solid backup than a regular starter with his neutral skill set.

Mason is a 30-year-old unheralded vet who has been traded for almost nothing in each of the past two years and never made a Pro Bowl, but he has started every year of his career (2015-21 Patriots, 2022 Buccaneers) and is a strong two-phase player who hasn’t had a PFF grade lower than 67.5 after his rookie year. 

Howard is a 2019 first-rounder who had hand surgery at the beginning of August. He is uncertain for Week 1 but shouldn’t miss more than a month at the longest. Solid in pass protection (minimum PFF grade of 65.4 throughout his career), Howard is an inconsistent-at-best run blocker.

Fant played at RT with the starters in Week 2 of the preseason and will likely fill in for Howard if he’s unavailable, especially Heck (2020 fourth-rounder) is dealing with a foot injury and currently on PUP.

A 31-year-old backup who always seems to find his way into the lineup, Howard has 60 starts since his 2016 rookie year, and he was serviceable (if not good) for the 2020-22 Jets in his yearly swing-turned-starter role.

Deiter is a 2019 third-rounder who started 23 games at LT, LG and C in 2019-21 but played zero offensive snaps last year under new HC Mike McDaniel. A subpar performer, Deiter is valuable more for his versatility than his overall ability.

Patterson is a four-star sixth-round rookie who started four years for Notre Dame (34 starts at C, 12 at LG). He allowed zero sacks in college but has athletic limitations (sub-32-inch arms, 5.33-second 40-yard dash).

Jones is a 2020 third-rounder whom the Texans just recently acquired from the Cardinals for a swap of Day 3 picks. Over the past two years he has made 21 starts at LT, RT and RG), and last year — playing exclusively at LT — he did well (75.8 PFF grade). He adds quality OT depth to a line that could be without Howard and Heck to start the year.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Will Anderson, Jonathan Greenard
• EDGE Backups: Jerry Hughes, Jacob Martin, Dylan Horton, Chase Winovich
• DT Starters: Maliek Collins, Sheldon Rankins
• DT Backups: Roy Lopez, Hassan Ridgeway
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Rasheem Green (Bears), Ogbo Okoronkwo (Browns) and Mario Addison (free agent), DT Michael Dwumfour (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Anderson is the No. 3 pick of the 2023 draft. A three-year starter and unanimous two-time All-American at Alabama, he racked up 34.5 sacks and 58.5 tackles for loss in his college career. He might struggle in the NFL against power blockers given his size (6-foot-3 and 253 pounds), but Anderson is a high-IQ and -character player who should upgrade the DL instantly.

Greenard is a 2022 third-rounder who missed half of last year to injury but has 9.5 sacks in 20 games over the past two years. Hughes is a 35-year-old pass rush specialist who pretends the run game doesn’t exist, but he still gets after the QB. Last year in his first season with the Texans he racked up nine sacks. 

Martin is a 27-year-old prodigal who played with the Texans in 2019-21, vagabonded last year with the Jets and Broncos and then returned to Houston this offseason. He has never had more than four sacks in a season, but he’s decent in run defense (67.1 PFF grade in 2022).

Horton is a fourth-round rookie who broke out last year at TCU with 10.5 sacks and 15.0 tackles for loss. Winovich is a 2019 third-rounder whom Caserio drafted with the Patriots. He has done little since 2021 (two starts, one sack), but in his first two seasons, he racked up 11 sacks in New England. 

Collins is a 28-year-old veteran who joined the Texans two years ago. He’s an average-at-best run defender, but he has 68 pressures since 2021. Rankins joins the team this year after seven seasons with the Saints (2016-20) and Jets (2021-22). He’s a solid two-phase player who can man the A and B gaps.

Lopez is a 2021 sixth-rounder with 1,059 snaps of underwhelming play (55.7 and 53.1 PFF grades). Ridgeway is an offseason addition who has been a supplementary member of some strong defensive fronts over the past five years (2018 Colts, 2019-21 Eagles, 2022 49ers). He does nothing exceptionally or poorly.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Christian Harris, Denzel Perryman
• Backups: Christian Kirksey, Cory Littleton, Henry To’oTo’o, Blake Cashman
• Notable Turnover: Kamu Grugier-Hill (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Harris is a 2022 third-rounder who might’ve been the worst starting LB in the NFL last year (28.3 PFF grade). He — the Texans hope — will be counterbalanced by their depth at the position, and he could eventually find himself on the bench.

Perryman is a 30-year-old offseason addition who made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and had a 74.2 PFF grade last year. 

Kirksey is a 30-year-old veteran who joined the team in 2021 and has started 19 games for the Texans over the past two years but hasn’t had a PFF grade of 60 since 2017. Littleton is a 29-year-old now on his third team in three years. He played alongside Perryman on the Raiders in 2021, was strong in coverage and run defense with the Panthers last year and is a consistent special teams contributor. 

To’oTo’o is a four-star fifth-round rookie who started all four years of college (2019-20 Tennessee, 2021-22 Alabama) and was especially strong in his final two seasons (205 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks), but his athleticism (4.62-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 227 pounds) will likely limit him in coverage and on outside runs.

Cashman is a 2019 fifth-rounder who played just 149 defensive snaps last year in his first season with the Texans, but he was a special teams ace (eight tackles).

Secondary

• CB Starters: Derek Stingley Steven Nelson, Desmond King
• CB Backups: Shaquill Griffin, Tavierre Thomas
• S Starters: Jimmie Ward, Jalen Pitre
• S Backups: Eric Murray, M.J. Stewart
• Notable Turnover: S Jonathan Owens (Packers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Stingley is the No. 3 pick of the 2022 draft. The No. 1 CB in his recruitment class, he snagged six interceptions for the 2019 LSU championship team as an All-American 18-year-old true freshman — but then he played only 10 games in the following two seasons because of injuries.

He has good athleticism (4.38-second 40-yard dash) but might lack the size (6-foot and 190 pounds) to man up with prototypical perimeter receivers, and as a 21-year-old rookie, he was exposed last year (49.9 PFF coverage grade). He’s by no means a bust (yet), but he needs to show marked improvement this season.

Nelson is a 30-year-old journeyman who has started 99 games since 2016 but nevertheless played on four teams across the past half-decade. Last year with the Texans he held pass catchers to 6.7 yards per target.

King is a 2017 fifth-rounder who was a unanimous All-American Jim Thorpe Award winner in college, but he fell in the draft because of his slow speed (4.60-second 40-yard dash). His agility (6.67-second three-cone), however, made him ideally suited for the slot, where he dominated early in his career with the Chargers, earning a first-team All-Pro designation in 2018.

The following year, though, he massively fell off (87.0% completion rate, 10.3 yards per target), and the Chargers traded him midseason in 2020 to the Titans, who let him walk in free agency. He was terrible for the Texans in 2021 (47.7 PFF coverage grade), but he had something of a bounce-back campaign last year (71.8 PFF coverage). It’s impossible to know which version of King we’ll get in 2023.

Griffin — a six-year starter with the Seahawks (2017-20) and Jaguars (2021-22) — provides excellent depth and gives the Texans some optionality: If Stingley underperforms, he could replace him in the lineup, or if King disappoints then he could play on the perimeter and Nelson could slide to the slot, where he played early in his career. A 2019 Pro Bowler, Griffin is a physical coverage man with great speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash).

Thomas is a 2018 UDFA who was bad at best in his first three years with the Browns, but he has been a slot dominator in his two seasons with the Texans (59.7% completion rate, 4.1 yards per target). I don’t know why he’s not competing for the starting slot job.

Ward is a 2014 first-rounder who followed Ryans to Houston this year after playing his entire career with the 49ers. A versatile DB who can play deep, in the box, on the perimeter and in the slot, he is a big upgrade for this unit. In fact, there’s a chance he might be the de facto slot corner for the Texans this year — he was for the 49ers last year. In his past four seasons, he hasn’t had a PFF grade lower than 73.5.

Pitre is a 2022 second-rounder who was strong in coverage last year (five interceptions, 65.8 PFF grade) but abysmal in run defense (44.2 PFF grade). Every down he’s in the box is an opportunity for exploitation.

Murray and Stewart are special teams aces who combined to lead the team in snaps (789) and tackles (18) last year. Murray played with Nelson on the 2016-18 Chiefs and Thomas on the 2019 Browns before joining the Texans in 2020.

Despite making 25 starts for the team, he has been a large liability over the past three years (no PFF coverage grade higher than 58.5). Stewart played with Thomas on the 2020 Browns. He played little on defense last year (178 snaps) but was solid (70.1 PFF grade).

Specialists

• Kicker: Ka'imi Fairbairn
• Punter: Cameron Johnston
• Holder: Cameron Johnston
• Long Snapper: Jon Weeks
• Kick Returner: Steven Sims
• Punt Returner: Desmond King
• Notable Turnover: KR Tremon Smith (Broncos)

Fairburn entered the NFL in 2016 as an All-American Lou Groza Award winner and has been with the Texans ever since. While he has been good (not great) to date, he is coming off the best season of his career with a 93.5% field goal rate.

Johnston is a 31-year-old Aussie who has been a top-10 punter with 47.4 yards per attempt and 42.0% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line since joining the Texans in 2021. Weeks has been long snapping for the Texans since 2010, and he made the Pro Bowl in 2015. For the Texans community, he’s the Giver.

Sims has 24.9 yards per kick return for his career and last year averaged 25.5. King has 9.1 yards per punt return for his career, and last year he averaged 9.4. Both are above-average return men.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Texans’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 7
• Home Division: AFC South
• Opposing Division: AFC North, NFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 11-13
• Opponents: vs. ARI, vs. JAX, vs. DEN

The Texans have a top-eight schedule in easiness based on the market win totals of their opponents, and it also has some situationally friendly spots. For instance, they’re one of just four teams with no three-of-four away stretches, and in the second half of the season, they have a three-game homestand, which catches my eye.

This could be a season in which wins are hard to come by, but if the Texans are to win they’ll likely do so in advantageous circumstances — such as a three-game homestand. In Week 11, they host the Cardinals, who could be without QB Kyler Murray and in full-blown tank mode.

In Week 12, they get the Jaguars in a rematch, and (almost) anything can happen in a home division. And then in Week 13 they have the Broncos, who could be bad if QB Russell Wilson is similar to the 2022 version of himself.

At the same time, the Cardinals could have Murray back, the Jaguars could be pushing to repeat as division champions, and the Broncos could be dangerous with HC Sean Payton.

If the Texans can get a win — maybe even two wins? — in this homestand, then that will be an overwhelmingly positive sign for their ability to add more victories in the final month of the season. But if the Texans go 0-3 in this friendly stretch, it’s hard to see where they’ll find success.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Texans.

• GM Nick Caserio gets into a power struggle with his coach after a 22-point Week 3 road loss to the Jaguars, and the tension ultimately reaches a breaking point when…
• HC DeMeco Ryans is fired following a demoralizing 27-point Week 16 home loss.
• OC Bobby Slowik proves that not every Shanahan acolyte can run the Shanahan scheme.
• DC Matt Burke adulterates Ryans’ defense.
• QB C.J. Stroud plays like a rookie and fails to develop throughout the season because he’s under pressure so frequently.
• RB Dameon Pierce dominates backfield usage but diminishes in efficiency.
• WR Nico Collins doesn’t become a No. 1 pass catcher.
• TE Dalton Schultz becomes a walking commercial for the metroplex area: “What happens in Dallas stays in Dallas.”
• LG Kenyon Green and C Juice Scruggs form a massively exploitable interior duo who allow defenses to pressure Stroud at will.
• EDGE Will Anderson plays well… but not well enough to warrant the forfeiture of three top-100 selections — and EDGE Jerry Hughes looks like a 35-year-old.
• LB Christian Harris is routinely attacked on the ground and in the air for chunk plays — and yet the Texans never bench him.
• CB Derek Stingley underwhelms in the first half of the season before missing the second half to injury, and CB Desmond King reverts back to his 2019-21 form.
• Texans finish with a league-worst record of 2-15 — the first team in NFL history to do so — and then they fire Caserio for trading away the No. 1 pick and hire GM Scott Pioli and HC Joe Judge.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Texans.

• GM Nick Caserio avoids making any more borderline-at-best trades.
• HC DeMeco Ryans drives the Texans as double-digit underdogs to a Week 1 road tie against the Ravens and then states in the postgame press conference that he’s pleased with the team’s effort but upset that some players celebrated after the game: “I’ll let them know when it’s time to party, and we’re not there yet.”
• OC Bobby Slowik innovates on the Shanahan scheme and makes life easy on his young passer.
• DC Matt Burke implements Ryans’ defense seamlessly.
• QB C.J. Stroud operates Slowik’s system efficiently and gradually develops the ability throughout the season to make some plays out of structure.
• RB Dameon Pierce makes the Pro Bowl.
• WR Nico Collins falls just short of 1,000 yards receiving.
• TE Dalton Schultz does what he does.
• LG Kenyon Green plays like a veteran first-rounder under the tutelage of new OL coach Chris Strausser, and C Juice Scruggs upgrades the pivot.
• EDGE Will Anderson makes Texans fans obnoxiously delirious by winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, and EDGE Jerry Hughes ties his career high with 10 sacks. 
• LB Christian Harris is benched in the middle of Week 3, and he never makes his way back to the starting lineup.
• CB Derek Stingley progresses into a potential shutdown defender, and CB Desmond King maintains his 2022 form.
• Texans miss the playoffs but win their final three games to go 9-7-1, which results in Ryans receiving Coach of the Year.

In-season angles

I view the Texans as a moderate “bet against” team, especially when they are facing teams who are a clear tier above them.

I think that Ryans as a coach will be similar to Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Mike Vrabel, who are routinely able to trade punches with opponents a weight class above them, but right now the Texans — especially on offense — aren’t good enough to take body blows from teams that significantly outclass them.

It feels stupidly square to say something like, “The Texans could be overvalued as big underdogs” — but that could be the case.

Offseason market to exploit

I’m not recommending that anyone actually bet the Texans at -700 (DraftKings) to miss the playoffs, but I think that number should be -1000.

And of the team futures bets that’s the only one I think offers some theoretical value.

I do, though, see some (possible) value in the awards market.

DeMeco Ryans to win Coach of the Year (+2500, BetMGM)

Let me show you some numbers, all of which are from BetMGM.

• Texans to Win AFC South: +1100
• Texans to Make Playoffs: +550
• Texans to Get Wild Card: +1600

In my thinking, all of these bets essentially equate to the same thing: At least nine wins, probably 10.

Last year, first-year HC Brian Daboll took the Giants from 4-13 to 9-7-1 and the postseason. He won Coach of the Year.

Ryans is a respected first-year HC. He won Assistant Coach of the Year just last season. He’s taking over a team that has fired HCs in back-to-back years and is coming off a 3-13-1 campaign.

If Ryans gets this team to the playoffs (either as a division winner or wild card) it will be hard for him not to win Coach of the Year.

I’m not bullish on the Texans, but I could be wrong, and if I’m wrong — and if the current odds for AFC South, playoffs, and wild card are reasonable — then a position on Ryans is probably the best way to approach the market.  

You can tail the 25-1 longshot on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to get started!

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