Last year, the New England Patriots followed up a promising 10-7 playoff campaign in QB Mac Jones’ rookie season with a bizarre 8-9 performance that was plagued by incomprehensible decisions by HC Bill Belichick (entrusting the offense to defensive coach Matt Patricia, alienating his first-round passer with a QB controversy involving a Day 3 rookie) and game-losing mistakes by his players in the final month (WR Jakobi Meyers’ intercepted lateral vs. the Raiders in Week 15, RB Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble inside the 10-yard line vs. the Bengals in Week 16).

On the one hand, the Patriots were just a couple random plays away from duplicating their 10-7 record.

On the other hand, the 2021-22 seasons could not have felt more different.

In 2021, the Patriots were No. 3 in the league with a +159 point differential thanks to their efficient ball-control offense and opportunistic defense.

Last year, though, the Patriots had a point differential of just +17, their offense was mediocre and their defense was no longer elite. For  Belichick and the team, 2022 was an unquestioned disappointment.

This year, with Belichick a mere 20 wins away from tying Don Shula’s all-time record of 328, he finds himself in the rare position of needing to prove his present value to the franchise, given that he has two losing efforts in three years and a 25-25 record since QB Tom Brady left the Patriots and won a Super Bowl in his first season with another team.

In 2023, the Patriots need to have a winning record and ideally make the playoffs. And maybe even more importantly, Belichick needs to show that he’s capable of finding and developing Brady’s long-term successor — preferably Jones. But if the Patriots have another losing season and Belichick fails to convince owner Robert Kraft that the QB situation is under control, then he might find himself breaking Shula’s record with another team.

In this 2023 Patriots preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Patriots preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of Aug. 1.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, C David Andrews, RG Michael Onwenu, RT Riley Reiff
• Backups: OT Calvin Anderson, T/G Conor McDermott, C/G Jake Andrews, G/T Sidy Sow, OG Atonio Mafi
• Borderline: T/G Andrew Stueber
• Notable Turnover: OTs Isaiah Wynn (Dolphins), Marcus Cannon (free agent) and Yodny Cajuste (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Brown is a 30-year-old one-time Pro Bowler entering the third year of his second stint with the Patriots after spending 2018 as the team’s LT. After spending most of his career and 2021 at RT, he shifted back to LT in 2022 and allowed a career-high eight sacks and 39 pressures. He’s probably better suited to the right side.

Strange is a 2022 first-rounder who started 17 games as a rookie but forfeited five sacks and had 48.3 PFF run-blocking grade. David Andrews has been starting at the pivot for the Patriots ever since his 2015 UDFA rookie season. He has no accolades but is an average-at-worst run and pass blocker. 

Onwenu is a 2020 sixth-rounder who opened his career at RT, kicked inside when needed and then locked down the RG spot last year. Strong in both phases, he has never had a PFF grade lower than 77.5. Reiff is a 34-year-old middle-of-the-road veteran who has never made the Pro Bowl but also never been a below-average player. Now on his fourth team in four years, Reiff wasn’t an every-week starter for the Bears last year when healthy — and that’s concerning — but he probably won’t be worse than the rotation of RTs the Patriots had last year.

Anderson is a 2019 UDFA who returns to the Patriots after briefly opening his career there before catching on with the Broncos, where he has made 12 OT starts of average-ish quality over the past three years.

McDermott is a 2017 sixth-rounder whom the Patriots drafted, cut as a rookie and then added last year after he spent over five seasons with the Bills and Jets. He’s slightly subpar in both phases but not egregiously so and he offers T/G flexibility.

Jake Andrews is a fourth-round rookie who started 37 games at Troy at C (2022) and RG (2020-21). He might not have the size (6-foot-3 and 305 pounds) to play guard in the NFL, but he has the athleticism (5.15-second 40-yard dash) to move as a blocking pivot. 

Sow is a 25-year-old fourth-round rookie with five years as a starter at Eastern Michigan, first at LT (2018) and then at LG (2019-22). He’s raw but athletic (5.07-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 323 pounds).

Mafi is a fifth-round rookie who started 14 games at NT in his first two years at UCLA, but then he pulled a Patricia and switched to offense in 2020, eventually making 16 starts in 2021-22. He has great size (6-foot-3 and 338 pounds) but has struggled with weight (he showed up to UCLA at 411 pounds) and is a project.

Both Sow and Mafi will need to hold off Stueber, a four-star 2022 seventh-rounder who missed last year with a torn hamstring but has elite size (6-foot-7 and 325 pounds) and exhibited T/G flexibility in Michigan’s Joe Moore Award-winning OL. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise
• EDGE Backups: Josh Uche, Keion White, Anfernee Jennings
• DT Starters: Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore
• DT Backups: Lawrence Guy, Carl Davis, Daniel Ekuale
• Borderline: EDGE DaMarcus Mitchell  
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Judon is a four-time Pro Bowler with 28 sacks since joining the Patriots in 2021 after five years with the Ravens. He’s the star of a DL that returns all its core contributors. Wise is a 2017 fourth-rounder with edge/interior versatility. He’s a subpar run defender (59.7 PFF grade last year) but above-average pass rusher (eight sacks in 2022).

Uche is a 2020 second-rounder who started his career slowly but showcased near-elite situational skills last year with 56 pressures and 11.5 sacks on 285 pass rushes. White is a second-round rookie and the lone key addition to the line. Like Wise, he has the size to function as a tweener (6-foot-5 and 281 pounds) but the athleticism (4.79-second 40-yard dash) and production (7.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss in final season) to be a pure NFL edge. Due to his transition from TE, he’s still raw as a defender, but White has instant upside. 

Jennings is a 2020 third-rounder with just one career sack but strong run defense (78.0 PFF grade last year). I imagine he’ll be able to hold off Mitchell, a 2022 UDFA who played just five defensive snaps last year.

Godchaux joined the Patriots in 2021 after four years with the Dolphins. His counting stats are modest, but he can line up at nose thanks to his size (6-foot-3 and 330 pounds) and has led the team’s interior DL in snaps in each of the past two seasons (659 in 2022, 673 in 2021). Barmore is a 2021 second-rounder who missed seven games last year to injury but has flashed in his two seasons. Although he’s a liability in run defense (46.9 and 44.7 PFF grades), he’s an asset as a power pass rusher (74 pressures).  

Guy is a 33-year-old veteran who has been a Patriots DL staple since joining the team in 2017. Once an above-average player, Guy has started 91 games for the Patriots but declined noticeably over the past two years and had a career-low 53.5 PFF grade in 2022. Guy is no lock to make the roster, and if he does then he will likely play behind Barmore.

Davis is a 31-year-old rotational nose who joined the Patriots in 2020. He has a respectable 15 pressures on 258 pass rushes over the past three years but is an orange-and-red PFF run defense liability. Ekuale is a 2018 UDFA who has played mainly as an unremarkable interior pass rusher for the Patriots over the past two years. The strength of the interior DL is its unit-wide continuity, not talent.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai
• Backups: Mack Wilson, Marte Mapu, Chris Board
• Injured: Raekwon McMillan (IR, Achilles)
• Borderline: Jourdan Heilig
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Bentley is a 2018 fifth-rounder who opened his career as a rotational contributor but has been a starter for the past three years and has steadily played more snaps every season. Last year he had a career-best 80.4 PFF grade thanks to strong marks in run defense and coverage.

Tavai is a 2019 second-rounder who was selected by the Patricia-led Lions in 2019, cut by the Dan Campbell Lions in 2021 and then reunited with Patricia when the Patriots signed him off waivers. A bit of an edge/box tweener, Tavai was elevated to the starting lineup last year and had a standout campaign against the run and in coverage thanks largely to sure tackling (89.9 PFF grade).

Wilson is a 2019 fifth-rounder yet to live up to the five-star recruitment pedigree he carried with him to Alabama. He played well in 2021 for the Browns, but he reverted to his mediocre 2019-20 form after the Patriots acquired him via trade last year. Bad against the run (56.0 PFF grade) and terrible in coverage (44.9 PFF grade), Wilson is at least a willing special teams player (284 snaps last year), so he’ll probably stick on the roster. 

Mapu is a small-school third-round rookie S-to-LB convert who was the 2022 Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year and an FCS All-American as a senior with 76 tackles and two interceptions. With his beefed-up size (6-foot-3 and 230 pounds) and safety skills, Mapu has the potential to be a dynamic run stopper and cover man.

Board joins the Patriots after five years with the Ravens (2018-21) and Lions (2022). While he has never been a meaningful defensive contributor, Board is a special teams stalwart with 300-plus snaps each year of his career. Heilig is a rookie UDFA who racked up 21 special teams tackles and 873 special teams snaps as a four-year ace at Appalachian State. For the past 19 years, the Pats have had a rookie UDFA on their initial 53-man roster, and Heilig has a shot to make it 20. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant
• CB Backups: Jalen Mills, Jack Jones, Marcus Jones
• S Starters: Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips
• S Backups: Jabrill Peppers, Brenden Schooler, Cody Davis
• Borderline: S Joshuah Bledsoe
• Notable Turnover: FS Devin McCourty (Retired) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Gonzalez is a 21-year-old first-round rookie with the size (6-foot-1 and 197 pounds), athleticism (4.38-second 40-yard dash), production (four interceptions, seven pass breakups last year) and physicality to develop into a shutdown corner.

Jonathan Jones is a 2016 UDFA who has been with the Patriots his entire career and one of the team’s top corners since 2017. A slot man for most of his career, he played on the perimeter in 2022 and might do so once again in 2023, given that he held receivers to 6.3 yards per target. Bryant is a 2020 UDFA who has played regularly over the past two years, but his hold on the starting slot job might be tenuous. He’s a strong run supporter (111 tackles since 2021), but he has never had a PFF converge grade of even 60.

Mills is listed at S, and he indeed played the position with the Eagles in 2020, but the Patriots have used him mostly at CB over the past two years, and he opened his career with the Eagles in 2016 as a perimeter corner. He’s an average-at-best cover man, but Mills can line up in all four DB spots and is a willing run defender.

Jack Jones is a 2022 fourth-rounder who seemingly lacks the size (5-foot-11 and 180 pounds) and athleticism (4.51-second 40-yard dash) to play on the perimeter, but he lined up outside as a rotational CB last year and had success, allowing a catch rate of only 50% as a rookie. He’s dealing with a legal situation — he has nine weapons charges stemming from an arrest in June at Logan Airport — but his physical playing style could put him in competition for a starting role.

Marcus Jones is a 2022 third-rounder most known for his return ability, but he flashed as a rookie CB with two interceptions and seven passes defended, and as a senior he had a ballhawking five interceptions and 13 passes defended. Despite his size (5-foot-8 and 188 pounds), Jones manned the perimeter last year and had PFF grades above 65 across the board. He’s an excellent depth CB.

Dugger is a 2020 second-round box safety who has gotten better every season. With seven interceptions and 170 tackles over the past two years, he’s strong in coverage and run defense.

Phillips is a 31-year-old veteran who joined the Patriots in 2020 and has lined up all across the formation over the past three years, including perimeter corner and edge linebacker. I wouldn’t say that Phillips is a centerfield safety — because he isn’t — but of the three startable safeties the Patriots have he’s the one who best fits that description, so he’ll likely be tasked with filling McCourty’s vacated FS spot.

Peppers joined the Patriots last year after five years with the Browns (2017-18) and Giants (2019-21). A strong run defender (84.6 PFF grade last year) and pass rusher (45 pressures on 210 opportunities), Peppers is a strong No. 3 S who offers some LB flexibility with his size (5-foot-11 and 217 pounds).   

Schooler is a 2022 UDFA who played none on defense last year but led the team with 12 special teams tackles. Davis — like Schooler — is a special teams-only contributor. The 34-year-old ace signed with the Patriots in 2020 and had five tackles in six games before suffering a season-ending knee injury last year.

Bledsoe is a 2021 sixth-rounder who was terrible last year (33.9 PFF grade), but the Patriots might choose to keep him if they want four traditional safeties. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Chad Ryland
• Punter: Bryce Baringer
• Holder: Bryce Baringer
• Long Snapper: Joe Cardona
• Kick Returner: Marcus Jones
• Punt Returner: Marcus Jones
• Borderline: K Nick Folk, P Corliss Waitman, LS Tucker Addington
• Notable Turnover: Ps Jake Bailey (Dolphins) and Michael Palardy (free agent)

Ryland is a rookie fourth-rounder who improved his accuracy and length throughout his five years in college. In his three final seasons, he had a conversion rate of at least 82.5% in each year, and for his career he connected on 60% of his field goal attempts of 50-plus yards. At this stage in their respective professional journeys, Folk is probably the safer player. In his four years with the team, he has an 89.3% field goal rate and is 12-of-17 converting on attempts of 50-plus yards. But he turns 39 years old in November — and the team just invested actual draft capital in a kicker.

Baringer is an All-American sixth-round rookie who had a nation-high 49.0 yards per punt last year. The dude is a bomber. Waitman averaged 46.6 yards last year with the Broncos in his first full season as a No. 1 P. I’d be surprised if Baringer doesn’t win the job.

Cardona has been long snapping for the Patriots since his 2015 rookie season. This offseason he signed a four-year $6.3M contract with $2.6M guaranteed, making him the league’s highest-paid LS. As if that’s not enough, the dude was a decorated high school lacrosse player who started four years at Navy. Belichick would rather die than cut this guy. Addington filled in for an injured Cardona at the end of last season, but he’s not surviving final cuts.

Jones was a first-team All-Pro returner last year as a rookie with 12.5 yards per punt return and 23.9 yards per kick return, and that wasn’t a fluke. As a senior, he was an All-American return man who won the Jet Award (as the nation’s top returner) and the Paul Hornung Award (as the nation’s most versatile high-level performer). If Jones isn’t the league’s best returner, he’s certainly top-five.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Patriots’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 32
• Home Division: AFC East
• Opposing Division: AFC West, NFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-4
• Opponents: vs. PHI, vs. MIA, at NYJ, at DAL

I don’t need to belabor this: The Patriots have the league’s hardest schedule based on the win totals of their opponents.

Right out of the gate, they’re not insignificant underdogs in four games against teams who all have a good chance to make the playoffs. How they perform in that first stretch of games will be telling. Given that the Patriots have a new OC and tend to start slower on defense as they experiment with personnel and schemes, they could go 0-4 to open the year.

And if that happens, they could be a team to buy low throughout the remainder of the season.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Patriots.

• HC Bill Belichick sees his defense regress to average because of the difficult schedule of opposing offenses.
• OC Bill O’Brien turns out to be only slightly better at calling offense than Matt Patricia is.
• QB Mac Jones improves marginally but still struggles to pick up his fourth offensive system in four years and is benched for QB Bailey Zappe in Week 9 before reclaiming the starting job in Week 12.
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson has career-low efficiency as defenses focus on stopping him because they don’t respect the passing game.
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster tweaks a knee in Week 2 and battles with the injury for the rest of the season until a pulled hamstring against the Steelers in Week 14 shuts him down.
• TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are limited in the passing game, as O’Brien would rather funnel the offense through the WRs.
• LT Trent Brown has the worst year of his career on the blindside, LG Cole Strange has another subpar season and RT Riley Reiff falls off the age cliff in his first year with the team. 
• EDGEs Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise and Josh Uche all get pressure on opposing passers but fail — largely through variance — to translate it into sacks.
• The interior DL gets gashed repeatedly on power runs, which enables opponents to extend their drives.
• LBs Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai fall short in their coverage responsibilities because they start keying on the running game in order to compensate for the inadequacies of the interior DL.
• CB Christian Gonzalez has a steep and painful learning curve against No. 1 WRs, and slot CB Myles Bryant reveals himself to be a coverage liability before ultimately being benched in Week 10.
• FS Adrian Phillips struggles as the centerfield replacement for retired Deven McCourty.
• K Chad Ryland beats out Nick Folk in a camp battle and then proceeds to kick like a rookie.
• Patriots go 6-11, Belichick reaches a mutual agreement with the team to part ways, and new HC Jerod Mayo trades for QB Jimmy Garropolo to be his 2024 starter.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Patriots.

• HC Bill Belichick luxuriates in the glory of a defense that returns to the top five in scoring.
• OC Bill O’Brien upgrades the offense to a league-average unit.
• QB Mac Jones develops throughout the season and plays well enough after the Week 11 bye to make it a no-brainer decision to pick up his fifth-year option in the offseason.
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson finishes with 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns from scrimmage, and Belichick says that he is the finest RB he has ever coached after Stevenson carries the team to the playoffs with his Week 18 performance.
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster makes his first Pro Bowl since 2018.
• TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki combine for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns in O’Brien’s TE-friendly system.
• LT Trent Brown improves in his second consecutive season on the blindside, LG Cole Strange makes the anticipated second-year leap and RT Riley Reiff has one more serviceable campaign left in his aging body.
• EDGEs Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise and Josh Uche combine for 40 sacks.
• The interior DL plays just well enough in run defense thanks to the development of third-year Christian Barmore.
• LBs Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai form a do-it-all tandem that energizes the entire defense.
• CB Christian Gonzalez does his best impression of 2022 Sauce Gardner, and slot CB Myles Bryant is benched so that CB Jonathan Jones can kick inside, which makes room for the rotation of CBs Jack Jones and Marcus Jones on the perimeter.
• FS Adrian Phillips loses a training camp battle to S/CB Jalen Mills, who has the best season of his career as a deep safety.
• K Chad Ryland beats out Nick Folk and becomes a Patriots folk hero with a near-perfect rookie campaign.
• Patriots go 10-7, secure road victories against the Jaguars and Bills with last-minute field goals, lose by four points to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, and then announce three days later that former OC Josh McDaniels will return to the team as assistant HC in order to aid in the continued development of Jones as the QB of the future.

In-season angles

I view the Patriots as a neutral betting team, but there might be some spots this year when I decide to take a position for or against them.

While most teams/coaches tend to be more profitable ATS as underdogs than favorites — probably because people like betting on favorites — Belichick has historically trended in the opposite direction.

Since 2003 (the farthest back my data goes), Belichick has been better as a favorite than a dog.

• Belichick as Favorite: 167-121-8 ATS (14.0% ROI)
• Belichick as Underdog: 34-26-2 ATS (11.0% ROI)

My theory for why this is the case has to do with Belichick’s defense and his mindset. He often uses man coverage, which is like leverage in that it amplifies both the benefit you get if you have the better players and the injury you receive if you have the lesser players. So in favorable situations, Belichick could have an exaggerated edge. In unfavorable situations, he might have an amplified handicap. On top of that, Belichick tends not to let up late in games. He continues to attack inferior teams and gives no quarter in the fourth quarter.

So I don’t think it’s surprising that he has outperformed as a favorite.

And we’ve seen this favorite/underdog split persist and even widen in the post-Brady era, specifically with Jones or Zappe at QB.

• Belichick as Favorite With Jones and Zappe: 12-7-1 ATS (24.3% ROI)
• Belichick as Favorite With Jones and Zappe: 15-5 ML (11.5% ROI)
• Belichick as Underdog With Jones and Zappe: 4-10 ATS (37.7% ROI for faders)
• Belichick as Underdog With Jones and Zappe: 4-10 ML (23.7% ROI for faders)

If I bet on the Patriots this year, it will likely be when they face outmatched opponents. If I bet against them, I will probably do so when they are outclassed.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like any of the futures markets for the team… but I love one specific bet in the awards market.

Rhamondre Stevenson Offensive Player of the Year (+15000, DraftKings)

Join me, please, in an imaginative journey to the outer realms of reality.

Conceptualize a world in which HC Bill Belichick’s defense is a top-five unit. That’s not hard to do. They have unrivaled continuity in their defensive staff and personnel, and they’ve added a couple players who could be difference makers in CB Christian Gonzalez and EDGE Keion White.

Last year, the Patriots defense was Nos. 2 and 3 in takeaways and EPA per play; the year before that, Nos. 3 and 4. It wouldn’t be that unrealistic for the Patriots to have a strong defense this year.

Now, explore a universe in which OC/QBs coach Bill O’Brien is significantly better than former OC Matt Patricia and former QBs coach Joe Judge.

In such a universe, the Patriots could finish Nos. 8-12 in scoring thanks to a defense that gets stops and an offense that is efficient and funneled through the backfield. It’s probably not unfair to assume that the guy who has coached offense his entire career is better at coaching offense than the guys who have coached defense and special teams.

Finally, theorize a cosmic plane in which the Patriots no longer have RB Damien Harris and decide to use Stevenson as a workhorse.

In 2016, the team gave 299 carries to RB LeGarrette Blount in 16 games. Stevenson is basically a smaller Blount who can command targets in the passing game. Last year, with Harris playing 11 games, Stevenson was No. 10 in the league with 279 touches. Without Harris, he could add 50 more touches this year — about three more per game — and that total of 329 would’ve made him No. 4 last year, tied with Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb.

That’s not unfeasible for a big-bodied 25-year-old three-down back. Honestly, he could have more.

It’s possible — quite possible — for circumstances to align for Stevenson to have a massive breakout season.

If you look at our fantasy rankings, Stevenson is our No. 10 RB. He’s also the No. 10 RB in our season-long projections. And he’s actually the No. 9 RB in our ADP tool. If a guy is universally believed to be a top-10 RB, then he has a real chance to finish No. 1 overall. It’s within the range of outcomes.

Now, let me list for you all the RBs who have +15000 odds at DraftKings to win Offensive Player of the Year:

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Rashaad Penny
• Miles Sanders
• James Conner
• Jamaal Williams
• Raheem Mostert
• A.J. Dillon

One of these guys is not like the others.

For crying out loud, Stevenson has the same odds as Dalton Kincaid.

Stevenson is right ahead of Breece Hall (+4500), Najee Harris (+7500), Jahmyr Gibbs (+7500) and Travis Etienne (+7500) in our rankings — yet he’s nowhere near those guys in odds.

He’s right behind Derrick Henry (+3000) in our rankings, and it’s comical to think that Henry has a 3.23% chance to win the award while Stevenson has only a 0.66% chance (based on their implied probabilities, via our odds calculator). 

In all likelihood, Stevenson will be the centerpiece — the identity — of the Patriots offense, and he has the upside for a massive year. He almost certainly won’t win Offensive Player of the Year, but his current odds should be way shorter than they are.

You can tail the Stevenson longshot on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and start betting today!

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