With the 2023 NFL Draft completed, excitement for the incoming rookie class continues to grow. Which rookies are the current favorites to win rookie of the year awards, and which rookies actually have the best chance to win? Geoff Ulrich checks the betting landscape for offensive and defensive rookie of the year heading into 2023 and gives a few sleepers and best bets.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Odds

The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award odds have been updated following the NFL Draft, as all of the incoming rookies are now locked into their respective teams for 2023. With the draft over, we can start forecasting the roles these new players will have for the coming season and what their overall potential will be on the field and in the box score.

That means it’s a good time to start scouting the odds, as these rookies will begin working with their new teams soon. Those who are in beneficial positions will start to get noticed more and more as the season inches closer, which can potentially cause their odds to win OROY shift dramatically. 

We’re tracking the sportsbooks odds this year in the table below. The current odds for OROY are as follows:

Odds courtesy of BetMGM sportsbook, last updated 1/6/24

A cornerback won this award last season, and there is currently one cornerbacks with implied win probabilities greater than 1% to win this award. Devon Witherspoon (the fifth overall pick in the draft) has the shortest odds of any rookie cornerback at +5000.

DROY Current Favorite: Jalen Carter (-130)

Carter was once hailed as the top prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. His involvement in a fatal automobile accident and a lackluster pro day led to him falling, which then allowed the Eagles to snag him with the ninth overall pick.

At Georgia, Carter was an absolute menace, and his rare combination of power and speed for a defensive lineman makes him likely to dominate from the get-go. He’s also on a marquee team in the Eagles, which gives him a solid leg up. The last two DROY winners, Sauce Gardner and Micah Parsons, both played for two of the bigger market teams in the league.

You can bet Carter on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below and bet Carter today!

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Top Five DROY Candidates

The market for DROY had the following five players with the shortest odds.

Jalen Carter (-130)

Carter had a solid season ending the year with 6 sacks, 5 stuffs, and a defensive TD. Carter was once as low as -1000 to win this award but the Eagles defensive struggles (not all Carter’s fault) was a huge story down the stretch. Carter is still the favorite to win DROY but is no lock.  

Will Anderson (+150)

Anderson has played one game less than Carter but he’s barely trailing him in the odds. The Texans closed strong and Anderson does have strong underlying stats including 7 sacks and 10.5 stuffs. The Texans making the playoffs has made this a very close race. 

Kobie Turner (+500)

Turner rose in prominence over the last few weeks of the season and ended the year at +500 to win this award. The defensive tackle had seven sacks and was one of the leaders of a Rams defensive line that majorly outperformed expectations. 

Devon Witherspoon (+5000)

Witherspoon had a solid season but did miss three games. He was second in odds for this award for much of the year but got bypassed late in the year by Turner and Anderson – whose teams outperformed. Witherspoon did end the year with a Pro Bowl selection and QBs throwing at him only completed 55% of their passes. 

Brian Branch (+6600)

Branch was an integral starter for the Lions all year. The safety ended the year with 3 INTs, a forced fumble, and 74 tackles. He was never really in contention to win this award and didn't benefit from playing for a fast-paced team like the Lions who allow a lot of pass attempts.

Past 10 DROY Winners

Favorites have dominated the DROY race in recent history. Over the past four seasons, the player with the longest preseason odds was Gardner last year, whose odds were around +1000 right before the 2022 season began. 

That doesn’t mean that you should shy away from all long-shot bets though, as we’ve also seen three players with preseason odds of +2000 or longer win DROY in the past decade.

DROY Trends 

Much like OROY, recent DROY winners have been spread out in terms of positional allocation. Over the last 10 years, one trend to note is the dominance of defensive linemen from 2013 to 2019. Starting with Aaron Donald in 2013, defensive linemen have won DROY five times in nine seasons, with the last having been Chase Young in 2020. 

That trend has shifted of late, as linebackers and cornerbacks have now won DROY four times in the last six years. It's worth noting that while Darius Leonard and Micah Parsons were technically listed as linebackers, they still put up gaudy sack numbers (more on that below). 

Number of DROY winners by position since 2013:

• Edge and DL - 6
• CB - 2
• LB - 2

Stat trends: sacks are key

Sacks are one of the most trackable stats for defensive players and are also easy to present to the public, so it’s no shock that most of the recent edger rushers and defensive linemen DROY winners logged seven or more sacks as rookies.

• Aaron Donald (2014) – 9 sacks
• Joey Bosa (2016) – 10.5 sacks
• Shaquille Leonard (2018) – 7 sacks
• Nick Bosa (2019) – 13 sacks
• Chase Young (2020) – 7.5 sacks
• Micah Parsons (2021) – 9 sacks

You could argue that cornerback has recently become more of a marquee position, and last year, two of the top DROY favorites by the end of the season were cornerbacks (Gardner and Woolen). However, cornerbacks still don't get the same level of attention or credit as other positions that have opportunities for sacks, so betting on cornerbacks to win DROY preseason probably isn’t a great idea.

Team trends: target team defenses that can show vast improvement

Over the past decade or so, one underlying narrative for the DROY award has been the ability of the team defense overall to show vast improvement from the prior year in various statistical categories.

As we can see below, a solid team improvement in even basic defensive categories like average points allowed has been a trademark associated with each of the past five DROY winners.

Highly-drafted defensive rookies who help immediately improve previously weak defenses normally get most of the credit from the media even if coaching changes or veteran additions are major contributing factors. Look for elite defensive prospects drafted by teams that can potentially make a jump from a poor showing last season to identify value in the DROY betting odds.

When should you bet on DROY?

The betting odds for DROY tend to give us a little more in-season flexibility than at OROY. Since defensive players simply don’t get as hyped as offensive players, it can sometimes be a couple of weeks before a defensive rookie’s on-field performance gets noticed.

In 2022, both Woolen and Gardner were sitting at around +10000 and +1500, respectively, after Week 3. Both rookies were starters for their respective teams and had already put up some solid performances but didn't see their odds really move until a couple of weeks later.

While it’s perfectly fine to bet on one of the DROY candidates above now, the DROY favorites could get better odds closer to the start of the season or in-season if they start the year a bit slowly.

You can monitor the odds on BetMGM with their full market of DROY selections and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win by creating a new account below.

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