2024 AFC North Betting Preview: Believe in the Bengals
Matt LaMarca previews the AFC North for 2024, breaking down each team from a betting angle, including win totals, Super Bowl odds, and player props.
As a football fan, it doesn’t get much better than the AFC North. The division routinely features some of the best teams in football, thanks in no small part to the elite coaches. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh are two of the most respected coaches in football. Zac Taylor has established himself as an offensive guru. Kevin Stefanski has taken home TWO Coach of the Year awards.
The division was at its best in 2023, with all four teams winning at least nine games. The Ravens were arguably the best regular season team in the AFC – if not the entire NFL – while the Browns and Steelers both made the playoffs. The Bengals finished last in the division, but they still managed to stay competitive despite getting a very limited season from Joe Burrow.
This division is pegged to be extremely good once again in 2024, with all four teams owning a Vegas over/under of at least 8.5 wins. Can they all live up to expectations, or will any of these teams come crashing back to earth? Let’s dive into the AFC North betting preview for the 2024 season.
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Baltimore Ravens
- Win Total: 10.5 Over (-110; Caesars), Under (+100; FanDuel)
- Make Playoffs: Yes (-250; FanDuel), No (+250; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: +145
- To Win AFC: +550
- To Win Super Bowl: +1000
The Ravens’ season ended in disastrous fashion in 2023, losing at home to the Chiefs in the Conference Championship. They somehow decided that their best course of action in that contest was to repeatedly throw the ball into a Chiefs’ defense that ranked No. 3 in dropback EPA and No. 28 in rushing EPA. The team that ran the ball at the highest rate in the league during the regular season somehow had just six running back carries all game.
I will never for the life of me understand that game plan, but don’t let it cloud your judgment on this team’s performance overall. They were a dominant regular-season squad, winning 13 games while outscoring their opponents by more than 200 points. They had the No. 1 defense in terms of points per game allowed, while offensive coordinator Todd Monken led the team to a No. 4 finish in points per game in his first year with the squad.
In other words – this was not a team that was buoyed by a flukey record in close games – they dominated. They only had eight games decided by one score all year, and they went just 4-4 in those contests. That includes a subpar 1-2 mark in games decided by three points or less. If anything, this team could’ve been a bit more fortunate in that department.
Not much should change with this squad in 2024. They do have to replace a few pieces on the offensive line, while Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney are gone on defense. Still, the core pieces on both sides of the ball remain.
The offense could actually be better in Monken’s second year. The team added Derrick Henry to the backfield, giving Lamar Jackson the best backfieldmate of his career. Henry might not be the same player he was in his prime, but he should see far fewer light boxes than he did with the Titans.
Henry saw seven-plus defenders in the box at the highest frequency in football last season. If defenses try to do the same to Baltimore, Jackson will absolutely pick them apart. Against boxes of 7+ defenders last year, Jackson was No. 1 in EPA/dropback (+0.27), No. 1 in Success Rate (56%), No. 3 in completion percentage (72%), and No. 4 in yards per attempt (9.1).
Frankly, I don’t know how you stop this offense. Jackson is a cheat code, capable of beating your defense regardless of whether you’re gearing up to stop the run or the pass.
If that wasn’t a big enough advantage, the Ravens also get the easiest schedule in the league from a rest perspective. They have a net rest edge of +16 days, which is the top mark in the league. They’ll play four separate games with a rest advantage of at least three days, and John Harbaugh is 21-5 in that split and 10-1 since 2017.
The only thing left for this team to do is win a Super Bowl. It would not shock me if this is the year, so I’m getting some exposure to Baltimore at +1000. That’s nearly double what it is for the Chiefs, which feels like a mistake.
Bet:
- Ravens to win the Super Bowl (+1000)
Cincinnati Bengals
- Win Total: 10.5 Over (-110; Caesars), Under (+110; FanDuel)
- Make Playoffs: Yes (-220; FanDuel), No (+205; DraftKings)
- To Win Division: +165 (FanDuel)
- To Win AFC: +750 (FanDuel)
- To Win Super Bowl: +1500 (FanDuel)
Looking back at it, I’m still not sure how this team managed to win nine games last year. They essentially had five games from Burrow when he was at full strength, and the team did go 4-1 in those contests. Their only blemish was a three-point loss to the Texans, and there’s certainly no shame in that.
The fact that this team managed to go 4-3 in Jake Browning’s seven starts is a testament to Taylor, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and the team’s overall skill level. They did that despite facing the toughest schedule in the NFL and quite possibly one of the toughest schedules in history.
The Bengals played 11 games last season against teams that made the postseason, which is the most since at least 2000. They played 14 games against teams that finished above .500, which was tied for the most since 2000.
Fortunately, the Bengals schedule will lighten up significantly in 2024. Such is the benefit of being a last-place team. They currently are projected for the sixth-easiest schedule based on Vegas win totals, while the Ravens (28th), Browns (30th), and Steelers (32nd) all have to run the gauntlet. The schedule makers didn’t do them any favors with when they’ll play each opponent – they’ll be at a rest disadvantage in some of their toughest matchups – but it’s a group of foes that should leave the Bengals feeling optimistic.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws a pass at Cincinnati Bengals training camp on the Kettering Health Practice Fields in Cincinnati on Sunday, July 28, 2024.
The big question marks for this team are in the trenches. The offensive line has been terrible ever since Burrow took over at QB, ranking 27th or worse in ESPN’s pass block win rate in three straight seasons. They unsurprisingly used their first-round pick on an offensive tackle (Amarius Mims), but he’ll have to replace the departed Jonah Williams. Williams was merely 59th in PFF grade among offensive tackles last season, so that could end up being an upgrade.
The bigger loss is defensive tackle DJ Reader. Over the past two seasons, the Bengals have been No. 1 in yards per attempt and EPA/rush with Reader on the field. With him off the field, they drop to 32nd in YPA and 31st in EPA. It has the potential to be a massive downgrade.
Still, it is far better to be weak against the run than the pass. We saw the Chiefs just win the Super Bowl with an awful run defense, so it’s not a death blow. If they can get after the quarterback with Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, the defense could still be above-average overall.
The Bengals need a healthy Burrow this season, which will always be a question mark behind their terrible offensive line. However, the sky is the limit if he’s on the field. Given how much easier their schedule is than the Ravens’, I like their odds to win the division at +165.
I’ll also have some exposure to them to finish with the best record in football during the regular season (+1100; FanDuel). The three teams in front of them in that department – the Chiefs, 49ers, and Eagles – all have to play tougher schedules.
Bets:
- Bengals to win the division (+165)
- Bengals best regular season record (+1100)
- Joe Burrow Comeback Player of the Year (+300)
Cleveland Browns
- Win Total: 8.5 Over (-125; BetMGM), Under (+120; Caesars)
- Make Playoffs: Yes (+145; DraftKings), No (-165; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: +600 (DraftKings)
- To Win AFC: +2200 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +4000 (BetMGM)
Joe Flacco got some credit for helping the Browns make the playoffs last year, but this squad was all about the defense. They weren’t just the best defense in football; they were historically good. They were the No. 5 defense in non-sack EPA/play since 2000, and they were the best unit since the 2019 Patriots. Myles Garrett was rewarded with his first Defensive Player of the Year Award, and they should be very good once again in 2024: they have arguably the best front four and the best secondary in all of football.
Still, it’s hard to imagine the defense being that good once again. They benefited from an extremely easy schedule in 2023, and they were a bit exposed in the postseason. C.J. Stroud and the Texans lit them up like a Christmas tree, scoring 45 points in a blowout victory.
After facing one of the easiest defensive schedules last season, they’re going to face one of the toughest in 2024. In addition to four matchups vs. the Ravens and Bengals, they’re going to have to square off with the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, and Dolphins. Overall, it’s the fourth-largest jump in terms of opposing passing offenses (per Sharp Football).
Additionally, the Browns are due for a bit of regression from a luck perspective. They were a perfect 5-0 in field goal games last season, and they were 6-2 in one-score contests. They also ranked No. 1 in terms of FG luck, with opponents missing 2.3 FGs above expectation.
If the Browns are going to contend once again this season, they’re going to need much better production out of Deshaun Watson. That shouldn’t be an issue for the most expensive quarterback in football, but he remains a major question mark.
If there is a glimmer of hope for Watson, it’s that his performance in the second half of games last year was actually pretty impressive. He was one of the worst QBs in football during the first half (-0.37 EPA/attempt, 32% Success Rate, 5.2 yards per attempt), but he was significantly better after halftime (+0.07 EPA/attempt, 46% Success Rate, 8.6 yards per attempt).
The Browns need to figure out a way to get that type of production out of Watson for an entire game, but I remain skeptical that will happen. In one of the toughest divisions in football, this seems like the obvious team to fade. I’m happy to do so at +120.
Bet
- Under 8.5 wins (+120)
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Win Total: 8.5 Over (+135; BetMGM), Under (-115; Caesars)
- Make Playoffs: Yes (+185; DraftKings), No (-170; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +800 (DraftKings)
- To Win AFC: +2800 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +5000
I’ve already written about the Steelers recently, so I’m going to keep things relatively brief. Ultimately, I’m just not willing to bet against Mike Tomlin doing what he always does: win games and get his team to the playoffs.
Tomlin has now coached the Steelers for 17 seasons, and he’s never posted a losing record. He’s gotten them to the postseason on 11 occasions, including just last year. He did that despite spending the first half of the year covering up for Matt Canada, who proved to be one of the worst offensive coordinators in recent history. That’s not hyperbole.
Arthur Smith might be a bit of a meme from his tenure with the Falcons, but he fits what the Steelers want to do perfectly. His offenses in Atlanta were always better than expected – even if they didn’t utilize their stars the way that fantasy players wanted.
Under Smith, the Steelers are going to run the football and throw the ball downfield. Atlanta threw the ball at least five yards downfield at the fifth-highest frequency last season despite having awful quarterback play from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
Russell Wilson may not be the same MVP-caliber quarterback he was in his prime, but you know what he can still do with the best of them? Throw the ball downfield. He was No. 2 in EPA/play on throws of at least five air yards last season, so this seems like a perfect schematic fit.
Defensively, this should be another prototypical Steelers squad. They have one of the best pass-rush duos in football in T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, and they should be healthier than they were last season. They finished just 26th in defensive health, with stalwarts like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cam Heyward both missing at least six games.
There are multiple ways to play the Steelers, but I’m going to keep it simple and grab the +185 to make the postseason. Given Tomlin’s track record and the potential to be better on both sides of the ball, that number feels like a no-brainer.
Bet
- Steelers to make the playoffs (+185)
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